Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    A little step back in the models this evening with any cold being confined to Scotland and along the North East coast. Elsewhere is likely to be seeing sleet showers rather than snow.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 1.6k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Evening All- ive been offline for a week taking a little break- monitoring the progress of the strat mainly- Things are homing in nicely now on the second SSW of the season ( a final warming

    the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late November the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early December the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards mid December the poss

    Rather disappointing that the obsession over cold and snow excludes some fascinating weather over the next 72 hours. This is the deepening low, not yet even formed. It is due to begin to develop in th

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, 40*C said:

    A little step back in the models this evening with any cold being confined to Scotland and along the North East coast. Elsewhere is likely to be seeing sleet showers rather than snow.

    What model are you looking at?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Hmmm, abundant precipitation heading west on Saturday on 18z GFS

    IMG_0079.thumb.PNG.1a8b7cf0d8a15feafa9ca932d521e34d.PNG

    T850s and partial (850-1000mb) thickness look good, need thickness of <129 gpdm

    IMG_0081.thumb.PNG.9d4303fb7ef96516aa74fe324e6df7d2.PNGIMG_0082.thumb.PNG.7c3f23c288b1ee9b21b8fb14b1f6d82d.PNG

    But the dew points look rather marginal for some and mean the difference of rain, sleet or snow.

     

    IMG_0080.thumb.PNG.9ee27f760def7badb89fafc9f6cd9067.PNG

    But as ever with snow forecasting, we won't know whether surface conditions are ok for snow over one particular area or not until much nearer, literally now casting for some, with such marginality. Though suspect east coast would sleet/rain.

    Edited by Nick F
    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    1 minute ago, Nick F said:

    Hmmm, abundant precipitation heading west on Saturday on 18z GFS

    IMG_0079.thumb.PNG.1a8b7cf0d8a15feafa9ca932d521e34d.PNG

    T850s and partial (850-1000mb) thickness look good, need thickness of <128 godmother

    IMG_0081.thumb.PNG.9d4303fb7ef96516aa74fe324e6df7d2.PNGIMG_0082.thumb.PNG.7c3f23c288b1ee9b21b8fb14b1f6d82d.PNG

    But the dew points look rather marginal for some and mean the difference of rain, sleet or snow.

     

    IMG_0080.thumb.PNG.9ee27f760def7badb89fafc9f6cd9067.PNG

    But as ever with snow forecasting, we won't know whether surface conditions are ok for snow over one particular area or not until much nearer, literally now casting for some, with such marginality. Though suspect east coast would sleet/rain.

    This could give a decent covering in places, maybe the BBC/METO will be looking at this quite closely , may only be a covering but tricky driving if it freezes!!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Promising looking pub run!! 

    IMG_4235.PNG

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    10 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    What model are you looking at?

    this is for saturday

    saturday.gif

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

     

    1 minute ago, Nick F said:

    Problem is that's a west-based -NAO look as has been advertised by recent ops and ensemble means in the 6-10 range, and we are the wrong side of the -NAO trough. The progression from there in the extended EPS mean is to merge the -NOA mean trough with the trough dropping down over Scandi - just hope that's the wrong signal, because that would indicate a return to zonality!

    In a word yuk! lol Well there does seem to be a lot of chopping and changing with the ops, the ECM 00hrs had the main block over Canada and tonights developed that further east towards Greenland.

    Not sure if you read GP's post suggesting the MJO might be further east than the WH index. In my determination to find yet more research to see why we would see such a big difference. About ten research papers later and a headache the news is frustrating depending on which way you look at it. In a nutshell no forecasting method is correct, every MJO event exhibits different properties and needs to be treated in that way. Theres an assumption that the VP200 properly captures the correct MJO signal, the research does not prove this. Sometimes its better and other times not, frustrating really because we've had an issue all winter with the MJO forecasts.

    The obituaries for more cold after this easterly seem to have been based around the VP200 so I'm questioning that, whether we see that favourable NH impact from the MJO is still IMO possible.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Certainly a synoptic of variance/progression. 

    Major advection of warm' digging in Western seaboard. .mjo ramification ?!.

     That's an evolving situ of getting the pulse into correction. 

    An more than ample for some cracking height format to the  NW.

    As regards Friday/Saturday precipitation values accomplishments. ..

    Again threat about these via DP'S ..overheads 24/36 hrs(nowcast)

    gfsnh-0-180.png

    Edited by tight isobar
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    18z very similar in evolution to the ecm 12z. Must admit I was surprised to see some of the top notch experts on here seemingly throw in the towel on a possible Greenland high bringing winter to the UK in about 10 days. They are not normally so absolute in their medium term conclusions.

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

    Is it something that can verify

    I doubt that there are too many times when this has been seen before - but the stagnated Atlantic pattern can certainly verify.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Interesting to see where GFS 18z is going with this run?

    GFSOPEU18_216_1.png

    GFSOPEU18_216_2.png

    ECM 240hrs is hinting at a possible cold shot into Europe and maybe a drift west. Could this be what METO were hinting at in their extended text forecast today?

    ECMOPNH12_240_1.png

    'There is a small risk of a few sleet or snow showers in southern and eastern parts, although confidence is low.'

    Time will tell of course.:)

    Edited by Purga
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Sometimes it is easy to second guess where the run will end up, but with this type of Atlantic pattern and with a strong wave 1 trop displacement I am struggling here.

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    h850t850eu.png

    A most curious outcome indeed and quite an adjustment from the previous run. Enough to encourage happier dreams tonight as I leave it there for now. Let's keep shifting the broad scale pattern west tomorrow...please! :whistling::D

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Looking much better than the 12z. Stagnant Atlantic jet and more southerly tracking! Better heights around the Greenland area too with a huge cold pool surging out of Svalbard. This is going to be a tricky one. 

    I was thinking it was a rather foolish statement for BBC staff to hype on as if Spring was about to get underway. Ever heard of the saying 'never remove a thread, till April be dead' or n'eer cast a clout, till May be out'!!! 

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    7 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Sometimes it is easy to second guess where the run will end up, but with this type of Atlantic pattern and with a strong wave 1 trop displacement I am struggling here.

    Oh cmon! You should have guessed we would end up in mild south westerlies at day 11 :)

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    23 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

     

    In a word yuk! lol Well there does seem to be a lot of chopping and changing with the ops, the ECM 00hrs had the main block over Canada and tonights developed that further east towards Greenland.

    Not sure if you read GP's post suggesting the MJO might be further east than the WH index. In my determination to find yet more research to see why we would see such a big difference. About ten research papers later and a headache the news is frustrating depending on which way you look at it. In a nutshell no forecasting method is correct, every MJO event exhibits different properties and needs to be treated in that way. Theres an assumption that the VP200 properly captures the correct MJO signal, the research does not prove this. Sometimes its better and other times not, frustrating really because we've had an issue all winter with the MJO forecasts.

    The obituaries for more cold after this easterly seem to have been based around the VP200 so I'm questioning that, whether we see that favourable NH impact from the MJO is still IMO possible.

    Yes I did read GP's post suggesting  the RMM plots maybe too slow with the MJO propagation which may make sense why the block is on the move so much and why we are seeing a quick development of a Greenland ridge when the RMM plots would infer this happens too soon.

    Certainly the MJO is no guarantee of getting the block to stay in the right place for long enough, especially if it's progressing east quickly toward the Indian Ocean, much rather we saw the stratosphere having a helping hand with a PV split more likely to bring sustained HLB.

    Still, I remain open-minded for the 2nd half of February, the Atlantiic jet is looking rather weak and wavering from next week, so chance that the deep cold pool vortex dropping down toward Scandi could shift further south than models indicate. Just don't want that PV to the NE to dig too far SW and join with low heights/troughing to west of UK / western Europe.

    Edited by Nick F
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    Just catching up.

    The difference between the ECM at +240 and GFS 18Z is striking. Personally I have lost interest in trying to predict what may happen for next weekend because this winter has been very odd indeed from a forecasting perspective. Main focus now is the Euro 4 and possible snow.

    I will add though the main cause of all this uncertainty for the medium range is the modelling of the Atlantic trough.

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...