Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?


Recommended Posts

Hmmm. Not a blow your socks off ECM run but from where we were (and TBH what I was expecting) I'll take it. Certainly shows promise, something to build on. Start of a trend? Hopefully.

I certainly owe it an apology, it was the first the sniff out the sinking high last weekend and whilst I 100% agreed with the premise of a ridging Azores High, I was convinced that a total collapse of the Scandinavian High SEwards was plain wrong. It hasn't happened yet of course but now has pretty unequivocal support that it will.

Plenty to play for still, I was always expecting this mild(etc) transition period but just not in the way it appears to be panning out.

Edited by s4lancia
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Evening All- ive been offline for a week taking a little break- monitoring the progress of the strat mainly- Things are homing in nicely now on the second SSW of the season ( a final warming

the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late November the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early December the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards mid December the poss

Rather disappointing that the obsession over cold and snow excludes some fascinating weather over the next 72 hours. This is the deepening low, not yet even formed. It is due to begin to develop in th

Posted Images

18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not the 5 star ending on the ECM  but a step in the right direction. The main thing is that its moved away from the block over Canada, still plenty of time for positive changes and this calls into question the early obituaries for the MJO

Im not sure the MJO was being written off, just that phase 8 of the MJO in February does not necessarily produce a Greenland High. Nouska posted some compisites earlier.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, i'm in Cornwall right now, today was a beautiful sunny day, worthy of spring. We drive back on friday evening and we could be seeing this on saturday-

prectypeuktopo-6.thumb.png.3e050a73948540b87c4a05650a194e98.png

prectypeuktopo-7.thumb.png.a6b129d74656d7dd08884bd0e098b0f3.png

Now that would be a great ending to a great week :good:

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Im not sure the MJO was being written off, just that phase 8 of the MJO in February does not necessarily produce a Greenland High. Nouska posted some compisites earlier.

But timing is everything...slower better in this case not progressive, GH is a distinct possibility by next weekend in my view. Phase 1... I doubt it.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, ptow said:

The screen shot is for Tuesday frosty 

Apologies then:D still a decent Easterly showing for the next 3 days or so..snow for some of us:)

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Im not sure the MJO was being written off, just that phase 8 of the MJO in February does not necessarily produce a Greenland High. Nouska posted some compisites earlier.

I haven't caught up with all the posts yet, in terms of the composites and February there are a lot of factors that would effect them ie was it la nina or el nino, or neutral etc . I'll have a look at Nouska's post.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

I hope I'm wrong but got a feeling this is gonna cause a lot of people disappointment. Dew points above freezing may mean rain for many on Saturday. Typical as the heavier precipitation gets in.

viewimage.png

Nothing wrong with that chart, dew points below zero, probably have no precipitation around these parts though.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I haven't caught up with all the posts yet, in terms of the composites and February there are a lot of factors that would effect them ie was it la nina or el nino, or neutral etc . I'll have a look at Nouska's post.

Nick

worth looking at it. Although high the composite only had 4 years to compare I believe.....from memory so may have not been Nouska

 

BFTP

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

I hope I'm wrong but got a feeling this is gonna cause a lot of people disappointment. Dew points above freezing may mean rain for many on Saturday. Typical as the heavier precipitation gets in.

viewimage.png

Yep alot of people are expecting a snowfest on Saturday but it looks like its going to be a grotty day in eastern areas with a strong on shore wind and rain piling in, not nice at all! The hills should be cold enough for snow and perhaps some western areas especially over higher ground. Got to say, looking at first glance, the ECM does not look like it will produce much PPN for Saturday with higher thicknesses for one which suggests less instability for clouds and PPN to form.

Either way, a little snow in the short term before turning grotty for the weekend(again with the risk of some snowfall on the higher ground) with a stiff cold wind before slowly turning milder into next week. Still some uncertainty just how quick the milder air comes in and just how close any frontal rainfall gets to the South West - the orientations of the blocking high and the deep low in the bay of Biscay is going to be crucial what type of weather we may see next week. The ECM looks drier too me than the GFS although both models do seem to indicate we will see a true southerly flow which will bring the milder and drier conditions.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Im not sure the MJO was being written off, just that phase 8 of the MJO in February does not necessarily produce a Greenland High. Nouska posted some compisites earlier.

A bit more time now and have been able to look at month specifics - the 1988 event is probably the closest to what is anticipated in the forecast - the other years had different timing and little foibles of amplitude and direction.

Forecast. 08947ab0282880d56961a15e0b13e37f.gif Feb '88 198801.phase.90days.gif.small.gif

The composites for February and March 1988.

311820229bdaaf45f90b5de5434f340b.png  9a4fdf66357ea3862816c56213d77750.png

The ERA reanalysis for 15th February onwards as it's interesting to see what weather patterns went with it.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=15&month=2&hour=0&year=1988&map=0&region=nh&mode=2&type=era

Only part of the story and events in the stratosphere may completely change the picture anyway.

@nick sussex mostly solid Nina.

oni.png

 

Edited by Nouska
  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know whether to admire those who study teleconnections or feel sorry for them lol. So many variables and the smallest of these can cause huge flips in the forecast. Seems almost like a thankless task.

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks Nouska  just caught up on your previous post and the new one, I'm sure your new one has gone down quite well looking at the composite! By the way can you do another composite factoring in the Indian Ocean Dipole? lol Just joking, thanks for doing those, really interesting. Talking of the IOD thats spiked in recent days moving out of negative territory which does help the MJO along.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Thanks Nouska  just caught up on your previous post and the new one, I'm sure your new one has gone down quite well looking at the composite! By the way can you do another composite factoring in the Indian Ocean Dipole? lol Just joking, thanks for doing those, really interesting. Talking of the IOD thats spiked in recent days moving out of negative territory which does help the MJO along.

When you say helps the mjo move along, do you mean into phase 1? Hence bad news?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Thanks Nouska  just caught up on your previous post and the new one, I'm sure your new one has gone down quite well looking at the composite! By the way can you do another composite factoring in the Indian Ocean Dipole? lol Just joking, thanks for doing those, really interesting. Talking of the IOD thats spiked in recent days moving out of negative territory which does help the MJO along.

Oh Nick, sheesh!

It's not an Indian Ocean Dipole - that's neutral currently. It is an IOBW (Indian Ocean Basin Wide) cool event. There's a different atmosphere response to that.... if you want to be driven mad or drive the readers to the drinks cabinet.:drunk-emoji:

In the dropdown menu.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/climate/ENSO/month.html

Edited by Nouska
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Nouska said:

Oh Nick, sheesh!

It's not an Indian Ocean Dipole - that's neutral currently. It is an IOBW (Indian Ocean Basin Wide) cool event. There's a different atmosphere response to that.... if you want to be driven mad or drive the readers to the drinks cabinet.:drunk-emoji:

Now I'm totally lost lol

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Nouska said:

Oh Nick, sheesh!

It's not an Indian Ocean Dipole - that's neutral currently. It is an IOBW (Indian Ocean Basin Wide) cool event. There's a different atmosphere response to that.... if you want to be driven mad or drive the readers to the drinks cabinet.:drunk-emoji:

Lmao! Anyway if you like all things MJO related I've found this great site:

http://monitor.cicsnc.org/pub/mjo/rmm/

You can filter in or out different variables on the MJO like Kelvin waves etc , very easy to use, pour yourself another glass of wine and enjoy! lol

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

FWIW, the extended eps suggests renewed heights over Europe and a trough over the mid Atlantic resulting in a mild south westerly flow.

 

Edited by mulzy
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Me too, I just give up lol

Wasn't life simpler when we just had the Radio 4 weather for the week ahead? lol I think when you see how many variables are at play then you can see how difficult it is to isolate out the tipping point. You can't really do a controlled experiment like you do in the lab and that's why because of that background chaos its difficult to forecast a long time ahead. I suppose that's what makes the weather more fascinating and its something regardless of super computers that will still be difficult to accurately forecast at long lead times even well into the future.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...