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Paul

Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

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Whilst Winter is beginning to fade in our thoughts- The UK still has another 4-5 week window for seeing snow- however the Uppers would need to be pretty decent-

The UKMO 144 today sees proper deep cold driving south south west through Scandi on a trajectory for the UK

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168 could be interesting depending on how things develop...

S

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Edited by Steve Murr

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Quite warm at the end of the week with temps around 16C before the depression swings through

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26 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Mid month cold spell not going away

 

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As if to take the p### even more the GFS now gives us a Murr sausage in the medium range. Something to be taken with a lorry load of salt.  Perhaps one of the lorry loads of salt that the councils will have left over  having boutght it in  based on the Met office forecast of a blocked December with winds from the east or North.

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Gfs still keeping my hopes of a snowy birthday alive, just hope it falls in Prague at the same time otherwise will have to drool over my garden Cam. 

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A nice taste of spring temperature wise from midweek on the Gfs 12z in southern uk with friday the best day of the spell with temps pushing into the low 60's F and feeling warm in any sunshine.

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Edited by Frosty.

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The Ecm 12z shows the azores high ridging in by the end of next weekend:) no sign of a cold snap. It just looks like normal early spring.. i.e..changeable with temps close to average either a touch above or below.

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Edited by Frosty.

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ECM says no to a Frosty high at +216 but GFS 12z said yes

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Anyone mentioned the Gem 12z? It actually becomes very mild towards the end of the week ahead with tropical maritime air flooding in and the far south / southeast would have some dry spells and very pleasant sunshine too.and increasingly mild again towards the end of the run.:)

Sorry about the charts being back to front.

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Looking through the GEFS 12z there is quite a lot of support for high pressure to become centred over the uk towards mid month with frosty nights and dry days with variable amounts of cloud and sunshine.

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Tonight's Gfs 18z shows anticyclonic weather dominating towards / during  mid March  with widespread sharp night frosts and generally fine crisp days with sunny spells.

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Edited by Frosty.

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There is still little uniformity with the anomalies so confidence is not great vis. the evolution through mid March but there are pointers (not with NOAA) of a trough mid Atlantic/over the UK with temps trending down. Just sticking with the ext EPS of last night it has a more invigorated vortex over the Pole with a trough Greenland and then negatively orientated south east over the UK. This would portend a unsettled zonal flow and temps a little below average.

Anyway back to the here and now. Some fronts associated with depression passing between Iceland and Scotland will traverse the country on Wednesday before some brief ridging at the end of the week initiates a warm couple of days with temps knocking on 16C in parts of England/Wales. This is just a brief lull as a quite vigorous depression tracks into Scotland early Saturday bringing rain and gales to N. Ireland and England and windy elsewhere

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This depression rapidly moves away east and then it's the familiar story of the energy pouring forth upstream engaging the warmer Azores air as it intermittently surges north.

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So the first three days of next week will see high pressure over the UK with a quiet spell of weather with temps around average but a fair bit of diurnal variation before the next depression arrives just NW of Scotland

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all in all a fair mixture but not overly bad with nothing nasty lurking in the woodshed and Sid has been releasing his nuts at the whiff of Spring

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Edited by knocker

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The ecm is not dissimilar to the gfs but of course varies with the detail. It keeps the temps down a tad at the end of the week, albeit still around 14C: the weekend depression is a little further south and not quite as deep and it doesn't make quite as much with next weeks high pressure but this will alter somewhat in the interim in any case

Edited by knocker

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The Gfs 00z shows temps rising nicely for the second half of the working week with low teens celsius and close to 60F on friday so feeling very much like spring..warm in any sunshine!:D

Then following a cooler unsettled blip high pressure builds in for a while.

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Edited by Frosty.

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The Ecm 00z certainly becomes milder as the week goes on, especially further south..in any sunshine it will feel more like April than early March!:D

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Edited by Frosty.

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The London ECM ens barely gets below 0 on the 850's now to think 4 days or so they were getting close to or a bit below -5 and it was shown to last quite some time but as soon as ECM picked up the less cold signal ala February it's stuck with it

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In the later period the EPS is still looking trough Greenland and NE Atlantic, westerly upper flow and temps a tad below average

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No sign of anything wintry this morning, the 00z Gfs / Ecm / Ukmo / Gem looks like typical early spring..changeable / unsettled with temps close to average, sometimes a little above and below..pleasantly or very mild later this week and a chance of high pressure (Gfs) next week.

Edited by Frosty.

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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

No sign of anything wintry this morning, the 00z Gfs / Ecm / Ukmo / Gem looks like typical early spring..changeable / unsettled with temps close to average, sometimes a little above and below..pleasantly or very mild later this week and a chance of high pressure (Gfs) next week.

The signal for raising Greenland heights has gone for now though again hints at the very end of 06Z OP FI.

The 00Z GEFS have plenty of blocked and colder options depending on whether we see pressure rises to the west and intriguingly to the NE which has come back into favour over the weekend.

Arguably the most interesting of the time synoptically with many evolutions on the table. Today for example there is snow over Normandy and strong winds over the north west coast of France - wouldn't have taken much for that to have affected southern  counties.

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4 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 00z shows temps rising nicely for the second half of the working week with low teens celsius and close to 60F on friday so feeling very much like spring..warm in any sunshine!:D

Then following a cooler unsettled blip high pressure builds in for a while.

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Hmmmmmm Mild and damp and overcast comes to mind. 

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7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Hmmmmmm Mild and damp and overcast comes to mind. 

Occasionally, but some fine weather too.

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Control probably best ignored on the 06z it's well and truly on the cold side of the mean and op

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Looking through the GEFS 6z, Friday could bring 17 possibly 18 celsius to southern uk with some sunshine and tropical maritime air.

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Edited by Frosty.

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Occasionally, but some fine weather too.

Youll have to show the charts that show clear sunny and mild weather

For example the GFS 06z run show this

102-102UK.GIF?06-6

With temps of
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Wet Damp but at least it's mild.... 

And having gone through the next 7 days its Cloudy 95% of the time, with occasional breaks for some locations.

Not sure what there is to look forward too..... :closedeyes:

Edited by frosty ground

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