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Paul

Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

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It's pretty much a nightmare trying to sort the wheat from the chaff vis this morning's det runs after T144 or even before. At that time the ecm has an upper trough mid Atlantic with a few shallow surface lows littered around with some ridging over the UK .A couple of these lows phase with the trough away to the NE and track east to be over Scotland by midnight Saturday. This then moves rapidly east and after some very brief ridging the next low, under the auspices of the trough to the NE, traverses  the UK on Sunday bringing some more wet weather with quite possible snow on the northern flank.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9.thumb.png.db54ee3f58d0e572c45798c0aa4cb11a.png

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This would be pretty impressive for London in mid Jan, never mind mid March. Cold spell gaining momentum !!

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Winter is on it's way the daffodils or  not going to like this if it comes off snow could be in the forecast..:D

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Edited by abbie123

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ECM is far more mixed this morning with any cold limited

ECMOPEU00_144_2.thumb.png.31f94187579501149abaf6d6ff85a1d3.pngECMOPEU00_168_2.thumb.png.5c31cecb809d793d6ae6c8907582e0df.pngECMOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.351958aab8341374dc002e5eebca2ae8.png

ECMOPEU00_216_2.thumb.png.e08a54ec91a57694df6ed8042355873e.pngECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.45d20b1eaa2be880f4ee3ec523a6ac1a.png

The last time it suddenly flipped when the rest were going for quite a long colder period was back in Feb and we know what inevitably happened ECM turned out to be right. 

The next few runs will be interesting either ECM has gone off on one or it's done what it did last month and suddenly found something new                                                                  

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A quick look at t168

GFS starts to pull down a northwesterly

gfs2.2017031100.168.lant.troplant.prp.fc

UKMO extended doesn't and is very different

ukm2.2017031100.168.lant.troplant.prp.fc

Edited by Summer Sun

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I wonder whether it has found something new because the EPS mean anomalies are still looking at quite significant ridging mid Atlantic with trough just to east which would still indicate a NW upper flow and possible transient northerlies and temps a little below average In the ext period the amplification quite quickly subsides and the upper winds back into a more zonal regime although the temps still trend below average

 

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_natl_11.png

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The Ecm 00z shows why coldies need to be cautious, as if we needed reminding following all the let downs during the last 4 months but I still think mid March could deliver a potent cold snap / spell as per the Gfs 18z / 00z.

Edited by Frosty.

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GFS struggles to get the coldest air in on the 06z

gfs-1-174.png?6gfs-1-198.png?6gfs-1-252.png?6

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Some snow at times to lower levels but most of the time it would be cold rain

Edited by Summer Sun

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It's the energy spilling out SE of Greenland that always scuppers our chances of getting proper cold uppers.

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06z Op is closer to the mean compared to the 00z it was a fair bit colder from around the 14th

06z                                                                00z

graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gifgraphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gif

Edited by Summer Sun

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My worry is the ECM & UKMO, I think that the GFS is still on the right track potentially for a cold northerly blast at some point, this afternoon and evenings runs will be very interesting. What I do NOT want to see is nice looking charts, and a Northerly/NEly but uppers of only -2/-5c and cold rain, I don't think that anyone wants that.:nonono:

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28 minutes ago, snowray said:

 What I do NOT want to see is nice looking charts, and a Northerly/NEly but uppers of only -2/-5c and cold rain, I don't think that anyone wants that.:nonono:

Agreed, I would rather have tropical maritime warm rain than cold rain but I still think mid March could be surprisingly cold with snow / frosts despite the model uncertainty. 

Edited by Frosty.

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The odds currently favour a chilly spell from next weekend according to the GEFS 6z mean but what's still fuzzy with it being a week away is whether we will see a proper arctic blast as we approach mid month although a risk of snow and frosty nights is still being hinted at by Exeter during the period in question so we could yet see charts like last night's incredible Gfs 18z low res and indeed this morning's 00z popping up at times during the next few days until the models finally firm up on the end of next week..from a coldies point of view it would be nice to see at least one Arctic blast before its too late! 

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Edited by Frosty.

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, I would rather have tropical maritime warm rain than cold rain but I still think mid March could be surprisingly cold with snow / frosts despite the model uncertainty. 

Well the models certainly never make is easy for us here in the UK, like the poster from Greece said a few weeks ago, the cold and snow down there always verified at D7 out in some shape or form, no matter how much chopping and changing there was with the models, and Greece is a hell of a lot smaller than our little Island surrounded by a warm Atlantic, and its on the Med. With us, one small variable changes and its smell the coffee, all over.

 

Yes I am still positive about mid March, just hoping that any cold plunge will be cold enough for snow that will at least settle and lay for a day away from the hills and mountains, that's what everyone wants to see, one last chance to get something decent out of the pretty pathetic 16/17 winter season.

 

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The last couple of days have been interesting with the operational models showing some stellar runs in terms of a mid march cold/snowy/snap/spell.

However one has to wonder given the relatively poor performance of all the models in the mid/longer range this winter whether they are just flattering to deceive us coldies once more.

I,m afraid I am far from convinced by the wintry output at the moment.   But then who can blame me after all it was only a few weeks ago that ECM had all 51 ensemble members on board for something special which then turned out to be something exceptionally ordinary.

I hope for all our cold/snow loving members that one of these spectacular mid march runs is on the money but I am not holding my breath until they are still showing at T48.

Edited by mcweather

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Various teases in deep FI and FI. Good agreement up to T144 allow the normal watering down of any cooler weather so most most of us can expect is cool rain away from the Scottish hills. 

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18 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Various teases in deep FI and FI. Good agreement up to T144 allow the normal watering down of any cooler weather so most most of us can expect is cool rain away from the Scottish hills. 

Yes that is exactly my worry there PIT, and also concur with mcw's sentiments. 

Anyway 12z's starting to roll out, important output this.

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1 hour ago, snowray said:

Greece is a hell of a lot smaller than our little Island s

Really?

sorry mis read, England is but certainly not the UK,

again apologies

Edited by johnholmes

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26 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Really?

sorry mis read, England is but certainly not the UK,

again apologies

Yh, sorry there John, I should have said British Isles or UK. Anyway UK is about 243,000 km, Greece is just under 132,000 km. if we were to include the Irish republic as part of the British Isles that figure would be a lot higher of course. But then the Greeks may argue about Greater Greece and the Eastern Roman provinces of Byzantium, I think that some still lay claim to the city of Constantinople for example, now that is entirely another matter.:)

 

Edit. Just noticed England on its own is smaller than Greece, 130,000 km. That has surprised me but thought it would be close.

 

Spot the difference there at just D4 on the 12z.

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Edited by snowray

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33 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yh, sorry there John, I should have said British Isles or UK. Anyway UK is about 243,000 km, Greece is just under 132,000 km. if we were to include the Irish republic as part of the British Isles that figure would be a lot higher of course. But then the Greeks may argue about Greater Greece and the Eastern Roman provinces of Byzantium, I think that some still lay claim to the city of Constantinople for example, now that is entirely another matter.:)

 

Edit. Just noticed England on its own is smaller than Greece, 130,000 km. That has surprised me but thought it would be close.

 

Spot the difference there at just D4 on the 12z.

gfs-0-102.png

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Pedant time...Ireland IS part of the British Isles. Maybe you meant Great Britain?

I like the idea of an early to mid-March over western British Isles, at least.

While I love the thought of a snowy day, once we are into March, I'm more inclined to favour the advent of milder Spring temperatures than belated cold and snow.  

J.

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Indeed. 

 

Anyway, some stunning charts turning up in FI from D10. What could possibly go wrong?:closedeyes:

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If nothing else the GFS is been consistent in FI low single digit temperatures hard overnight Frosts, and not to forget a fair bit of the white stuff as well.

C.S. 

Edited by cheshire snow

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8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Indeed. 

 

Anyway, some stunning charts turning up in FI from D10. What could possibly go wrong?:closedeyes:

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Hopefully this will bode well for the GEFS 12z with plenty of arctic shots to choose from..would love a potent mid March Northerly to put the winter to shame.

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