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Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean towards mid March shows a scandi trough and a mid atlantic ridge which would indicate a polar / arctic maritime airflow for the uk and the run ends with a suggestion of scandi height rises.

Today we have a bit more meat on the bone from the latest MO update which indicates a possible Arctic outbreak mid month with an increased risk of snow and widespread frosts during that period so I'm cautiously optimistic we could see a cold snap / spell around mid month.

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Edited by Frosty.
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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
3 minutes ago, jvenge said:

I counted 3 GEFS showing -12 uppers for the UK out into FI. Quite a few more showing -8 (which I suspect isn't good enough).

It's a good suite, if you are still on the hunt for cold. Luckily, it is also very attractive for us Spring hunters in other parts of the World.

-8c would still be fine for mid/late march and into April too I would think, depends on other factors of course like how heavy the PPN is, evap cooling, etc...

Late yesterday evening it snowed around the Manchester area with uppers a mere -4/-5c with the help of heavy PPN and a little evap cooling.:)

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jvenge Seasoned

jvenge

Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
Posted
35 minutes ago, snowray said:

-8c would still be fine for mid/late march and into April too I would think, depends on other factors of course like how heavy the PPN is, evap cooling, etc...

Late yesterday evening it snowed around the Manchester area with uppers a mere -4/-5c with the help of heavy PPN and a little evap cooling.:)

I guess for falling snow :-) 

Okay, so the chase is still on in that case. I'm chasing Spring though :-)

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

There is plenty of wintry weather showing on the GEFS 6z during the mid March period ranging from polar / arctic maritime blasts and even a few very cold easterlies..so, the run up to mid month and even beyond could possibly produce snow widely across the uk with close to ice days and very frosty nights.

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Edited by Frosty.
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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted

GFS 12z showing a Northerly by day 9 with snow into Scotland.

C.S. 

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Quite a change from UKMO between it's 00z and 12z runs

00z

UKMOPEU00_120_1.thumb.png.276071a0057342499c4c027a1c8ec60a.pngUKMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.be1821e6d52f2c94cbb75d1b20f8f374.png

12z

UKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.6ff4cbb5f14d952c6d51c06112c577de.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.db53ea21fac706b1075953aa501060c9.png

Driest in the south and milder - cooler and with some rain in the far north

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted

GFS ends with charts that would of have us coldies drooling four weeks ago.

A NE flow plenty of snow and overnight Frosts all on offer deep into FI

C.S. 

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Popular Post
Posted

A Mid March Beasterly of rare beauty there right at the end of the run. 48 hours of widespread settling snow.:cold::cold-emoji:

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted
2 minutes ago, snowray said:

A Mid March Beasterly of rare beauty there right at the end of the run. 48 hours of widespread settling snow.:cold::cold-emoji:

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Hi Snowray

Could you PM me and explain how to post charts.

Thanks

C.S. 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted
5 minutes ago, snowray said:

A Mid March Beasterly of rare beauty there right at the end of the run. 48 hours of widespread settling snow.:cold::cold-emoji:

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Oh no. Not again!:rofl:

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh no. Not again!:rofl:

I would laugh if this last chance saloon easterly actually verified in some shape or form. Got to laugh, even the high that looks like a certain sinker at T264 actually manages to retrogress back north to just the right place in good old GFS cyberspace. :D

 

C.S. PM'd you.

gfs-0-264.png

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted
3 minutes ago, snowray said:

I would laugh if this last chance saloon easterly actually verified in some shape or form. Got to laugh, even the high that looks like a certain sinker at T264 actually manages to retrogress back north to just the right place in good old GFS cyberspace. :D

 

C.S. PM'd you.

gfs-0-264.png

Got it Thanks for your time

C.S. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

There is actually a mild fine spring day later next week for the southern half on the Gfs 12z. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Actually, the GEFS 12z mean becomes mild for most of next week across the south of the uk as high pressure builds in close to the south and Tm air flows around it, in any sunshine it would feel pleasant and there would be a spell of largely fine weather further south for a time. Further ahead winds veer more NWly and high pressure is just to the west..with a trough to the east. The mean doesn't really indicate a cold snap, temps only dip a little below average at worst and any showers would be mainly across the east with western uk generally drier and sunnier.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The GFS 12Z after T300 is bang on with some of the monthlies output. We shall see...

T+300 + and bang on don't really go together:crazy:

Edited by Frosty.
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Snipper Veteran

Snipper

Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Frosty. said:

 

Today we have a bit more meat on the bone from the latest MO update which indicates a possible Arctic outbreak mid month with an increased risk of snow and widespread frosts during that period so I'm cautiously optimistic we could see a cold snap / spell around mid month.

So what is so good about an Arctic outbreak at this time if the year? Slightly at a loss to understand. 

Edited by Snipper
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Snipper said:

So what is so good about an Arctic outbreak at this time if the year? Slightly at a loss to understand. 

If it's potent enough it would bring widespread snow showers due to the increased convection compared to winter when we would more likely have a wishbone effect with showers draped around the coasts only but mid March there would be some heavy and thundery snow showers or longer periods of snow if it's potent with sub -10 uppers.

Edited by Frosty.
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Snipper Veteran

Snipper

Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
Posted
Just now, Frosty. said:

If it's potent enough it would bring widespread snow showers due to the increased convection compared to winter when we would more likely have a wishbone effect with showers draped around the coasts only but mid March there would be some heavy and thundery snow showers or longer periods of snow if it's potent with sub -10 uppers.

So what is good about that?  Many now want to see the Spring burst as it is trying to now. 

Some snow and cold weather is a real nuisance. Many want to grow stuff. To have a dump of wet snow and cold leaves me with complete indifference. . 

If it had been a month or two earlier I would have been happy. 

Life moves on. 

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Chris. Contributor

Chris.

Posted
  • Location: Bishop Auckland, Durham NE
  • Location: Bishop Auckland, Durham NE
Posted

Surely its a difference of opinion as to what you want or not in a very odd month for the UK.

 

2nd day of spring and people expect summer to be upon us with 20c sunny days.  haha.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Anyway, back to the models and the Ecm 12z shows a much milder spell later next week for southern uk.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted

One post says "mild", the next post says "cold". And let's not forget "potential"......this Winter on NW has been one of "potential".........moving on!

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Walsall Wood Snow Seasoned

Walsall Wood Snow

Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, Snipper said:

So what is good about that?  Many now want to see the Spring burst as it is trying to now. 

Some snow and cold weather is a real nuisance. Many want to grow stuff. To have a dump of wet snow and cold leaves me with complete indifference. . 

If it had been a month or two earlier I would have been happy. 

Life moves on. 

Yes but March isn't exactly a stranger to cold temperatures and even snow. In fact historically it is a month that has given quite impressive dumpings from time to time (2013 as the most recent example). There is a tendency though for some of us (and I'm by no means guiltless of this, especially come Winter) to expect a particular season to get into full swing as soon as the meteorological definition of said season officially begins. This seldom happens though and very often the first month of said season is often a transitional phase, battleground or even an extended continuation of the previous season. Besides after March there's about a 5 month window (6 if you include September) for warm temperatures, whereas after March we're unlikely to see cold enough temperatures for snow until November at least. So in that regard there should be no rush for cloudless blue skies and warm temperatures just yet, as there's more than enough time for such and still a while to go until the peak period of Summer.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

One post says "mild", the next post says "cold". 

That's because the models are generally showing mild then cold:D

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