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Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?


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Evening All- ive been offline for a week taking a little break- monitoring the progress of the strat mainly- Things are homing in nicely now on the second SSW of the season ( a final warming

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Rather disappointing that the obsession over cold and snow excludes some fascinating weather over the next 72 hours. This is the deepening low, not yet even formed. It is due to begin to develop in th

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As I mentioned up the page models now trying to re align to a slower Mjo phase 8 not a quicker progression (GFS pulled trigger to early)...ECM trying.....Interesting fight!

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Edited by Scandyhigh
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Much more HP and dry continental air influence from ECM this evening so retaining cold nights while days could be very pleasant in light winds. As less cold interludes go it would be very tolerable... 

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2 minutes ago, Scandyhigh said:

As I mentioned up the page models now trying to re align to a slower Mjo phase 8 not a quicker progression (GFS pulled trigger to early)...ECM trying.....Interesting fight!

image.png

Another model showing more heights around Greenland

ECH101-192.gif.thumb.png.7cc65edc2cbe6815c18d177c1def9553.png

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Would be good to finish the winter in style with a Greeny high and at least one proper snow event to talk of! Otherwise this winter is fast going to be filed under F for frustrating.

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Finally some good progress from ECM with the pattern adjusted a good way west. Heights becoming low across Scandi for a change! Cold air resource getting recharged not far to our east.

Chiono's NE import scenario can be envisioned going forward, spanners not withstanding...

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15 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

It would appear to my very untrained eye that there are tentative signs of the high pressure holding further North on this evening's runs compared to this time yesterday?

Still looks chilly to me for much of next week before renewed tentative signs of height rises to our North West?

I agree. Ecm sniffing out changes again?

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Quite a flip to a Northerly on the ECM, I still think we could get that flip a day earlier . This is a great chart although not a strong  Greeny high, will it still be there tomorrow I'm not so sure...I currently have no confidence in any charts beyond 5 days never mind 10

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Edited by Ali1977
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The Ecm 12z looks wintry in the reliable which is where I will stay for now...-10 T850's with snow showers and widespread frosty nights..some areas will see a covering during the next 3 days and nights which all things considered is pretty good and these charts are eye candy that will verify!:D

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Quite a flip to a Northerly on the ECM, I still think we could get that flip a day earlier . This is a great chart although not a strong  Greeny high 

IMG_4231.PNG

Must be strong enough to be able to keep those purples apart..:D

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4 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 6z mean shows a gradual trend to less cold conditions during next week onwards. Not saying its right, just what it shows which is a return to average conditions.

 

Paul Hudson on BBC Look north alluded to your comment just now.

LO

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Not the 5 star ending on the ECM  but a step in the right direction. The main thing is that its moved away from the block over Canada, still plenty of time for positive changes and this calls into question the early obituaries for the MJO. NCEP are adamant its in phase 6 at the moment about to enter phase 7. The divergence between that and the VP200 is an issue but I'll post something on that later.

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11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Quite a flip to a Northerly on the ECM, I still think we could get that flip a day earlier . This is a great chart although not a strong  Greeny high, will it still be there tomorrow I'm not so sure...I currently have no confidence in any charts beyond 5 days never mind 10

IMG_4231.PNG

Don't discount it completely. ECM spotted the much commented on milder spell first.

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If we compare the UKMO and the ECMWF at 144 I think there is only one way the UKMO is going. 

As much as the ECM has been hated on, I still find it's evolution very believable and as Seasonality said, it spotted the breakdown of our current spell pretty well 

IMG_9124.PNG

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It was less than a week ago when the models didn't indicate any snow 

That is simply not true, indeed I posted in the Ireland thread over a week ago about snow potential for this weekend from what the models are showing.

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