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Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?


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Looks pretty grim again this morning. The weak signal for blocking/high pressure to return looks to have gone down the pan in the mid-term, as unsettled weather and low pressure start to dominate well into the first week of March. Looks like time is rapidly running out!

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Evening All- ive been offline for a week taking a little break- monitoring the progress of the strat mainly- Things are homing in nicely now on the second SSW of the season ( a final warming

the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late November the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early December the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards mid December the poss

Rather disappointing that the obsession over cold and snow excludes some fascinating weather over the next 72 hours. This is the deepening low, not yet even formed. It is due to begin to develop in th

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The mid term GEFs this morning show the Aleutian ridge retrogressed to Siberia, a a slight adjustment of the Canadian vortex NW and an Atlantic continuing to be dominated by the upper trough and negative anomalies with the high cell produced by the Azores surge between Greenland and Iceland.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_49.thumb.png.61c8adeeb1d865303ffdcc86d22d46a4.png

So to a few details. Today's ridge will move quickly east as weak fronts associated with the deep low in the Denmark Strait traverse the UK on Saturday which is merely the forerunner off the next low which arrive over NW Scotland on Sunday bringing snow to the high ground and perhaps lower down. This is really the story of the next ten days as systems track east on a strong jet shooting out of the southern states, briefly interrupted by the transient amplification and formation of aforementioned high cell.

gfs_uv250_natl_21.thumb.png.d66a47ff18b2cb44891289edcdefbb96.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_22.thumb.png.f65039beffb88956b0f69e7597ca34ae.png

After this there is some brief ridging before the next upper low deconstructs to some extent and spawns a vigorous surface low that impacts the UK next weekend

gfs_z500a_natl_31.thumb.png.238457dae1d16a4c5f574cb90adf364a.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_31.thumb.png.5970ec33f661c1ed1ddc6d4b926a0512.png

This unsettled regime, driven by the strong jet continues into the blue yonder, The temps during all of this hold up pretty well and although obviously variable are generally around average, perhaps a tad above.

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ECH1-240.GIF?24-12

ECM in particular this morning builds an impressive Canadian Arctic high by 240 hours, which sends a chunk of the PV into the Northern Atlantic, and a southerly tracking jet. Net result is that we are in the wrong place! The cooler/milder fluctuations look like continuing for a while.

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13 minutes ago, Eugene said:

 

Yeah with heavy rain and the risk of localised flooding. 

 

 

 

it's been a drier than average winter with lots of MLB..we need rain!:D

 

Edited by Frosty.
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No EC Monthly update last night on the charts I use. 

My view on the charts of the past day or so - probably a period of average temperatures coming up, possibly above average rainfall for some and the odd coastal gale. A little more like early November than early March, then! Some weak attempts at a higher latitude blocking but nowhere near significant enough to evoke the spirit of 2013. The first 20C day, though, also looks some way off, too.

It's often been said on here, you can tell if winter is petering out by the posters on here - I'm therefore expecting to see a lot of Frosty, Knocker and Summer Sun in the next few weeks, and if Captain Shortwave pops up we'll know something warmer is inbound ;)

Edited by Man With Beard
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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

No EC Monthly update last night on the charts I use. 

My view on the charts of the past day or so - probably a period of average temperatures coming up, possibly above average rainfall for some and the odd coastal gale. A little more like early November than early March, then! Some weak attempts at a higher latitude blocking but nowhere near significant enough to evoke the spirit of 2013. The first 20C day, though, also looks some way off, too.

Probably best you haven't seen it. :)

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It's an unsettled pattern we are in with variable temps, milder this weekend but colder again next week, especially in the north and even a little snow and some night frosts according to the Gfs 6z.

06_81_preciptype.png

06_81_uk2mtmp.png

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06_120_uk2mtmpmin.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Further ahead, the Gfs 6z shows an Arctic incursion as a ridge extends south from Iceland and there are snow showers for scotland and frosty nights but then trending milder from the southwest.

06_252_mslp850.png

06_252_preciptype.png

Edited by Frosty.
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I'm not sure the medium term is that clear cut especially for Scotland and the north. The jet is quite far south and at this range might get shunted further south which could bring some colder and at times snowier weather especially for those regions.

Whilst you have that lobe of high pressure near Iceland it would be premature to rule out some more wintry conditions which might even extend further south.

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4 hours ago, geordiekev said:

. How many failed guesses can one take before realising no one has a foggiest when it comes to LRFs and simple hopecasting can be just as right/wrong but I haven't yet given up hope.  I've had plenty of snowy mid March birthdays.

I think you can safely say that low solar and Arctic Amplification will figure large in next winters forecast. If you look at the 'broader strokes' of what low sea ice has been driving over the last decade and weave that into what reduced sunspot numbers means for NW Europe and you'll not be far wrong!

It is only now , at winters end, that my predictions for winter are starting to falter but for the rest of winter there were not too many surprises!

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There is still a carrot being dangled in front of the dwindling number of coldies left with the possibility of a prolonged cold spell during the second half of March with snow in places so I'm not giving up while that chance remains!.in the meantime we are into an atlantic driven pattern with spells of rain and strong winds crossing the uk from w / e interspersed by brighter, colder and showery intervals with snow on northern hills and occasional frosts during quieter interludes. Following a milder but still unsettled weekend coming up, next week turns colder and is trough dominated with a risk of upland snow in the north, temps closer to average further south.

Edited by Frosty.
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6 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late November
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early December
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards mid December
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late December
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early January
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards mid January
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late January
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early February
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards mid February
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late February
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early March
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards mid March
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late March
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early April

Frosty.....I'm nearly ready to call "house" on the potential of this winter.....   :)

 

LOL I know what you mean..very funny post:rofl:

A very frustrating winter, thankfully almost over!:crazy:

Edited by Frosty.
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14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

LOL I know what you mean..very funny post:rofl:

A very frustrating winter, thankfully almost over!:crazy:

Frosty ..... As long as it's not followed by an equally frustrating Summer..

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7 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

Frosty ..... As long as it's not followed by an equally frustrating Summer..

I see lots of.. potential:D

Anyway, unsettled sums the models up for the foreseeable. 

 

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On a more serious note, there is a risk of flooding across Cumbria at times this weekend with periods of heavy prolonged rain, we will all see at least some rain but it's the northwest of the uk which will bear the brunt.

06_27_precipratec.png

06_36_precipratec.png

06_57_precipratec.png

Edited by Frosty.
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It does look quite unsettled over the next week or so as we see the jet looking the most active now than we have seen through much of Winter.

A look at day 5 charts from the latest GFS run typifies the pattern going into March

jet.thumb.png.70ce22f4d281a224fa6e040be0553372.png850.thumb.png.87d2c91d319828b2cd8cf70c0f4b9c13.png

The jet running towards our latitude with bands of wind and rain from time to time,some snowfall likely over the higher ground at times further north.

The latest London ens for 2m temps and rainfall

ensemble-tt6-london.gifensemble-rrrcum-london.gif

No real drama expected with the graphs showing temperature variations around normal and the continuing trend to see rainfall building through the period as the frontal systems come through.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

looks like this is turning into the most unsettled spell of winter. No end in sight at the moment, pretty bog standard and boring...hence the lack of model posts!

I thought all that MLB was boring, one of the most boring winters I can remember.. at least we have some actual weather to talk about!:D

Edited by Frosty.
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