Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[Seasonality]

I'm not sure what muppet mode is but if it means FI silliness then more on offer from the 00z. Pretty to look at if you like cold weather. But as with the 18z lucky it is so far out so nothing to cause interest, concern or excitement (depending on your tastes)

[jvenge]

3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I'm not sure what muppet mode is but if it means FI silliness then more on offer from the 00z. Pretty to look at if you like cold weather. But as with the 18z lucky it is so far out so nothing to cause interest, concern or excitement (depending on your tastes)

Indeed. It isn't cold enough to produce. Continent also warming.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Latest GFS run not totally out of the blue given the suggestions of a cold March for a number of weeks now. Also, here was last night's GEFS ensemble mean for pressure anomaly at day 16

Fits in very well with the tail end of the 0z run shown below

Edited February 20, 2017 by CreweCold

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Don't get led up the garden path again! 

Nice charts on face value but it just won't verify like that plus it don't look that great anyway, with warmer air never far away 

[knocker]

The GEFS anomaly this morning is interesting because the last couple of runs have reafirmed what it has been hinting at on occasion for the last couple of days. that is the continued retrogression of the GOA ridge, the Canadian vortex slipping a little south and some amplification in the Atlantic with the upper trough in the west disrupting and positive anomalies in the Iceland area with some ridging over the UK. Thus the upstrem energy (jet) is disconnected and forced further south. Be interesting to see what the EPS makes of this later.

Meanwhile back at the ranch, Thursday sees the depression 985mb swing trough, fortunately downgraded from initial thoughts, before the next depression tracks NE to be south of Iceland on Saturday with associated fronts traversing the UK This depression rapidly moves away and the next depression phases with another just to the east of Greenland but is forced to track SW as amplification occurs with strong ridging mid Atlantic Ergo the introduction of a cooler Pm airmass with some wintry weather as a secondary low breaks off and scoots across Scotland

The main low ends up over France and with the ridge moving east the UK is then in a brief northerly. Best left here.

 

Edited February 20, 2017 by knocker

[Ali1977]

Things are getting very very interesting again, and the chance of a cold set up is getting ever closer. Next Tue now has chance of a Northerly slowly turning to a beast - big freeze chances have turned up a notch this morning for sure - I say big freeze, early March so not quite Jan but still looks cold.

lets see if the ECMhas us going cold early next week.

Edited February 20, 2017 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

Suddenly all the models have found a significant Atlantic ridge which they can use to build something to our north pre day 10. that's a bit quicker than I had anticipated and could be interesting even for the south depending on what depth of cold can actually be advected as far as here and how strong the flow can be to avoid too much moderation over the north sea and under the strengthening sun. 

[SteveB]

57 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Don't get led up the garden path again! 

Nice charts on face value but it just won't verify like that plus it don't look that great anyway, with warmer air never far away 

Been here far to many time this Winter, one last trip up the garden path, or have the models cried wolf one to many times?

[Gowon]

Nice looking charts on the ECM but the cold uppers are lacking.. Just cold rain..atm.

 

 

[knocker]

The ecm in the same ball park as the gfs except the depression has a more northerly track that takes it down to the north Irish Sea at T192 and thereafter into Holland as it fills. All this ending with an Omega block with the colder air in the Atlantic trough.

Edited February 20, 2017 by knocker

[mb018538]

Looking likely that something may be changing after the turn of the month. Up until then as knocker says, pretty unsettled with some win and rain.

[Seasonality]

2 hours ago, jvenge said:

Indeed. It isn't cold enough to produce. Continent also warming.

The problem would be more if it persisted. In recent years both March 2006 and 2013 have had cold spells in Warsaw, by which I mean extended freezing spells with occasional frigid temperatures, and memorable spring snowfall for end of March in case of 2013. Don't want to give anyone ideas though please! I doubt much of note would occur for majority of UK.

Edited February 20, 2017 by Seasonality

[winterof79]

Very nice charts starting to show their hand starting with Atlantic ridging.For once our High may reside in the correct place.

And I reckon the AO tanking charts have always been a great indicator

Edited February 20, 2017 by winterof79

[jvenge]

Still a long way out, but the last 4 GEFS runs have been showing the AO and NAO going negative in the latter stages of the runs, both the control and mean. 

 

[knocker]

The EPS is not showing a great deal of interest in the amplification next week. It is showing mid Atlantic ridging with a depression sneaking SE over the UK but it is quite short lived and in the ext period the mean anomaly is back to a mid Atlantic trough with a suspicion of a positive anomaly east of Iceland.

[Summer Sun]

The GFS op gets down to around -10 into early march whilst the mean stays around 0 give or take a bit

In the much shorter term, Friday is likely to be the peak of this week's chillier snap with temps on Thursday ranging from 5c in the north to 11c in the south and Friday ranging from 5c in the north to 9c in the south

 

[jvenge]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The GFS op gets down to around -10 into early march whilst the mean stays around 0 give or take a bit

In the much shorter term, Friday is likely to be the peak of this week's chillier snap with temps on Thursday ranging from 5c in the north to 11c in the south and Friday ranging from 5c in the north to 9c in the south

 

-10 is certainly the range it needs to be getting into for a snow event, but can't be too promising when the mean is what it is and after looking at the scatter.

[TEITS]

3 hours ago, Surrey said:

Don't get led up the garden path again! 

Nice charts on face value but it just won't verify like that plus it don't look that great anyway, with warmer air never far away 

One big difference though. The amazing synoptics you see on the 0Z are always more likely in March, April than Dec,Jan, Early Feb. This is why snowfall is more likely in these months than Dec. Also this is what made Dec 2009/2010 so special and very unusual.

[Frosty.]

Let's not overlook today as its likely to be the warmest day of the year so far with some areas reaching 16/17c into the low 60's F.

[Iceaxecrampon]

00z

Winter over?

Think again.

OK a week off but here we go.

 

Edited February 20, 2017 by Iceaxecrampon

[Iceaxecrampon]

2 hours ago, TEITS said:

One big difference though. The amazing synoptics you see on the 0Z are always more likely in March, April than Dec,Jan, Early Feb. This is why snowfall is more likely in these months than Dec. Also this is what made Dec 2009/2010 so special and very unusual.

Yes.

February is always peak month in Cumbria for ppn in February - I have the Mountain Rescue trend graph from their annual summaries and is always the case.

Edited February 20, 2017 by Iceaxecrampon

[karlos1983]

Been having a break from the models of late, but been keeping an eye on the Ensembles, so when I looked at the GFS operational this morning over a coffee, I was not that surprised to see it throw out a very nice fl. What we need now is for some consistency of that theme. not much to ask for 

I'm not sure what the complaints are about the continent not being cold enough for snow though...That's about as perfect as it gets..?

 

Edited February 20, 2017 by karlos1983

[Ali1977]

Can't post pictures but by next Monday the ridge is building and creating some heights around Iceland, lets hope this is the start of something special and the rest of the run folows the last few.  Early March Beasterly would still bring the goods to the whole country at all levels.  

[Seasonality]

15 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Been having a break from the models of late, but been keeping an eye on the Ensembles, so when I looked at the GFS operational this morning over a coffee, I was not that surprised to see it throw out a very nice fl. What we need now is for some consistency of that theme. not much to ask for 

I'm not sure what the complaints are about the continent not being cold enough for snow though...That's about as perfect as it gets..?

 

I'm not sure who said the continent isn't cold enough for snow, don't want to get into any arguments on that front. The continent is indeed cold enough for snow as close as this weekend, as the GFS ensembles show (that being in the semi-reliable time frame, but fairly good consistency last few days with a colder snap for central Europe). There on milder again and the control and op at the lower end of the suite, although not marked outliers quite as much as for London. Even then what they produce is definitely colder, but not exceptional as of yet. (not even yet in March 2006 or 2013 territory which were cold for parts of Europe) Although I acknowledge that even seeing snow fall is an 'event' for the south of England in comparison to the last few years. All mere speculation so far out anyway.

 

[jvenge]

Just now, Seasonality said:

I'm not sure who said the continent isn't cold enough for snow, don't want to get into any arguments on that front. The continent is indeed cold enough for snow as close as this weekend, as the GFS ensembles show (that being in the semi-reliable time frame, but fairly good consistency last few days with a colder snap for central Europe). There on milder again and the control and op at the lower end of the suite, although not marked outliers quite as much as for London. Even then what they produce is definitely colder, but not exceptional as of yet. (not even yet in March 2006 or 2013 territory which were cold for parts of Europe) Although I acknowledge that even seeing snow fall is an 'event' for the south of England in comparison to the last few years. All mere speculation so far out anyway.

 

I think it was me :-) I don't see enough cold in Europe for a decent easterly to be tapped into. Of course, that's not to say that Europe itself can't see something wintery, just that nothing spectacular and unlikely to deliver more than cold rain to the UK as a result.

I think the best route for cold to those in the UK would be to look to the North East and hope for something to happen from there.