Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[Frosty.]

According to the GEFS 6z mean, the risk of a Northerly later next week doesn't really compute, a non event.

Most of next week looks mild, especially further south and exceptionally so on Monday but Friday does look like becoming cooler / colder from the w / nw before temps start recovering again through next weekend into the following week. I think this winter is on it's way out like a lame duck..pretty much like most of the last 3 months really. Another almost snow less cheerless winter is drawing to a close..hopefully next winter will be better..seem to be saying that every year!

Edited February 18, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Next Friday you can either have a mild (UKMO) or cold (GFS)

Edited February 18, 2017 by Summer Sun

[snowray]

I was just about to post them two charts myself, its a joke all this chopping and changing at D6, I mean there never seems to be any agreement this winter between the models even in the shorter term, them charts are miles apart.

[knocker]

I think peole expect too much from the models on occasion With very fast moving mobile patterns as at the end of next week a small variation in the timing, and we are talking a week away, can make a big difference when comparing. Just move the gfs on 12 hours.

.

Anyway the gfs latest on the low which is slightly more important

Edited February 18, 2017 by knocker

[comet]

Right at the end of fi but worth a mention. If the synoptics turn out to be anywhere near accurate then it would certainly be interesting and quite possibly noteworthy. The time frame would also fit with tropospheric heights building several  days after the SSW similar to the warming at the beginning of the month.

[Frosty.]

Interesting Gfs 12z which shows a short cold snap later next week as arctic air and snow showers flood south with widespread moderate frosts and then low res becomes settled and spring like before heading wintry at the end. 

Edited February 18, 2017 by Frosty.

[gottolovethisweather]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

I was just about to post them two charts myself, its a joke all this chopping and changing at D6, I mean there never seems to be any agreement this winter between the models even in the shorter term, them charts are miles apart.

 

 

1

 

See my post last night in response to Summer Sun. As the saying goes, more runs needed, especially true when the models get the weekend wobbles. We'll have more idea by Monday evening's ECM as to where February might end, whether cooler, drier or milder as now and unsettled. I suspect tonight's ECM will revert back to a cooler spell from 23rd onwards for a number of days as it was steadfast in suggesting such a scenario early to midway through this week. I don't watch the GFS anymore so cannot comment on what that expected for next week.

Edited February 18, 2017 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

See my post last night in response to Summer Sun. As the saying goes, more runs needed, especially true when the models get the weekend wobbles. We'll have more idea by Monday evening's ECM as to where February might end, whether cooler, drier or milder as now and unsettled.

It's interestingly poised, still have a chance of an Arctic maritime incursion in less than a week, something for coldies to hope for!

Edited February 18, 2017 by Frosty.

[snowray]

Well I wonder if we can get a bit of consistency from the ECM?

Next Monday looks to be even milder there.

[snowray]

Well there we go, ECM is running with the GFS solution @T144. 

[Frosty.]

Well I hardly dare look but the Ecm 12z does show a short-lived cold incursion from the north later next week with snow for some of us, especially the north and on hills and frosty nights..it's brief but it's better than nothing! Hoping for upgrades if there is still time for that.

Edited February 18, 2017 by Frosty.

[Matthew.]

ECM has s'westerliies returning next weekend before the big chill in March of course

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

ECM has s'westerliies returning next weekend before the big chill in March of course

Yes Matthew we have a narrow window of opportunity for a brief arctic maritime incursion as shown on the Gfs / Ecm 12z..fingers crossed

[snowray]

Winter continues on unabated though in the Balkans,Greece and Italy on the ECM 12z.

 

Surprise, surprise! 

 

Still time for upgrades I'd say, but what on earth can the UKMO be thinking, no more middle grounds please!

[nick sussex]

Luckily the stakes aren't higher and the UKMO refusal to even deliver a brief colder shot isn't that much of a big deal. The ECM then goes onto produce a tightly coiled PV to the north and big departure from its 00hrs run. I think whats quite evident this winter is just how little amplitude we've seen upstream. Whether the ECMs PV is the last gasp which you can sometimes see as a reaction to a SSW before it implodes or whether this is a sign of a flat jet and milder start to March we'll see in the next few days.

The winter looks like going out on either a tragic excuse for a colder shot which would sum up the winter or milder conditions like the UKMO. Overall I think most want to put this winter to bed and move on. Of course there still might be some wintry interludes in March but thoughts of crunchy snow, ice days are now going to have to wait till next winter.

 

[Frosty.]

Agreed nick, it's no big of a deal if the 24/36 hour cold snap doesn't happen as per the ukmo 12z. It feels like its been a very long, extremely boring winter with nothing to show for it..roll on spring..we might see some proper cold and snow!

[knocker]

No indication from the anomalies this evening of anything other than unsettled in the next 14 days. A possible suggestion right at the end of some positive anomalies in the Iceland area with some ridging in the eastern Atlantic but that's all it is at this stage.

In the 5-10 period a continuation of the intensification of the Canadian/Greenland vortex with associated troughs down western N. America and south east west of Iceland.and a strong ridge GOA. A flat zonal flow across the Atlantic and a pretty strong jet accompanied by simultaneous weakening of the influence from the Azores portends an unsettled period with systems rushing though, possible effecting the north more but this detail needs to be sorted by the det. runs tout suite. Temps generally a little above average but obviously with some variations as systems traverse the UK

No significant change in the later period except possible a little boost to the vortex.

Edited February 18, 2017 by knocker

[JBMWeatherForever]

Still think we have plenty of time for crunchy snow (in march)  In March 2013 the mild island which I live on had several feet of it, and that was in the last week ! And yes it was crunchy!

 

Edited February 18, 2017 by JBMWeatherForever

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Still think we have plenty of time for crunchy snow (in march)  In March 2013 the mild island which I live on had several feet of it, and that was in the last week ! And yes it was crunchy!

 

Several feet of it, on the Isle of man, in late March, WOW!

[Don]

14 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Still think we have plenty of time for crunchy snow (in march)  In March 2013 the mild island which I live on had several feet of it, and that was in the last week ! And yes it was crunchy!

 

The only problem is, March 2013 was exceptional.  Still time for crunchy snow in March yes but the chances are pretty slim.

[snowray]

40 minutes ago, Don said:

The only problem is, March 2013 was exceptional.  Still time for crunchy snow in March yes but the chances are pretty slim.

Seems to me that a dumping of snow is becoming an exceptional event at any time, be it March or in a Winter month proper. 

[Frosty.]

Speaking of snow..The Gfs 18z shows some later next week! 

[feb1991blizzard]

Hello sir, hello sir!!!

[cheshire snow]

Eye spy with my little eye something beginning with E, at least it's at T384

C.S

[damianslaw]

10 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Eye spy with my little eye something beginning with E, at least it's at T384

C.S

Wouldn't at all be surprised to see the optimum wintry synoptics once again occur outside of the winter season, much more chance of northerlies and easterlies verifying in spring compared to winter...