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Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?


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You have to laugh. North African plume now showing and just in case you're all wondering where the gritters are, well, all the salt is being rubbed into our wounds as yet again the north east US get the frigid cold spoils. You just couldn't make it up. Better make the most of the next few days. 

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Evening All- ive been offline for a week taking a little break- monitoring the progress of the strat mainly- Things are homing in nicely now on the second SSW of the season ( a final warming

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Rather disappointing that the obsession over cold and snow excludes some fascinating weather over the next 72 hours. This is the deepening low, not yet even formed. It is due to begin to develop in th

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7 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Looks like it is going to be very pleasant next week, highs in the low to mid teens, plenty of sun. (Sorry :()

yeah if you live in the very south of uk?

most parts still in single figures and only take slight change in wind direction to make it feel cooler...

168-580UK.thumb.gif.85570599017fdbb5b0be9b9a910be3a0.gif

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

That's very true (Deen?)...But then, a few adjustments the other way, it's open windows all the way!:good:

No, not Deen..:laugh: but yeah I fully agree:)

Ps,, The name is Dayan:wink:

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Models currently walking the tight rope!.

Greenland height rises are becoming worryingly disolved in latter frame out'

However I personally quite like when a toying evolution begins dilution. .....

Then there's quite normally an upsurge' in evolution. ..and things begin amore solid clean evolution. 

So v-interesting output over next 2/3 days...

Further Saturday looks 'potentially' a snowy day almost anywhere. 

And DP overheads/evalut' is/will be nowcast situ.

However id rather an easterly incur' than a northerly when dew points/wet bulbs are to be reliant. 

We're well in the game. And watch for a few surprises through Saturday. 

gfs-8-78.png

gfs-2-78.png

Edited by tight isobar
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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO shows more of a southeasterly flow by Tuesday

Rukm1441.thumb.gif.3d6d4a69ec1ae7dee3a88ee5b8630357.gif

GEM looks to have more of a southerly?

gem-0-144.png?12

It looks like a southeasterly in both charts to me.

 

The UKMO is interesting with the notable pressure rise over Greenland.

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO shows more of a southeasterly flow by Tuesday

Rukm1441.thumb.gif.3d6d4a69ec1ae7dee3a88ee5b8630357.gif

GEM looks to have more of a southerly?

gem-0-144.png?12

Surprising just how many cold minimums there could be next week with that SE setup. Milder by day though.

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The charts for this weekend onwards are very March 2013 and 2001 esque with switcharounds between chilly easterlies and warm southerlies. See this example from 2013.

archives-2013-3-4-12-0.png archives-2013-3-11-12-0.png

Now obviously conditions further north were more favourable then for a switch back to colder conditions but just shows what is possible. I think the temperature ranged from 14C on the 05th to 0C on the 11th here.

This time we seem to have the pattern in reverse with a chilly easterly turning into a warm southerly.

The most interesting chart for me is this one:

h850t850eu.png

That pattern but further south would lead to something wintry, however, further north and it would be positively balmy. Unfortunately though, as has been the theme for most of this winter, we get left in no man's land.

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Rukm1441.gif  h850t850eu.png npsh500.png
With UKMO showing a better height rise than GFS at +144, yet GFS still going on to produce the above-middle & right charts for +216, the game is far from over for some form of HP to our NW, even if it only proves fairly transient.

There have been musings of IO interference but this does not manifest in the model projections until early-mid next week, allowing for typical lagged responses I sense the models may be being a bit hasty with the subtropical ridging. Well, hopefully!

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1 minute ago, NorthernRab said:

Those hoping for a gander among the daffodils next week may need to consider taking along a coat (and maybe a scarf, cloves and hat too).

h850t850eu.png

Errr nope Atlantic pushes that away without flinching.

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Just now, The PIT said:

Errr nope Atlantic pushes that away without flinching.

I was being somewhat tongue-in-cheek. It merely illustrates that at this time of the year with a lot of blocking around, very cold weather can appear at short notice. 

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15 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Errr nope Atlantic pushes that away without flinching.

Yeah, and how many times have we seen the models want to bring the Atlantic through prematurely..?:rolleyes:

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From around 144+ we are seeing the models trying to figure out the extent of height rises to our NW and how strong any Atlantic ridging will be along with the consequences of any link up.

The Scandi high will be in its death throws during this phase but it may still allow for positive heights to be thrown NW as low pressure attempts to push East aiding any upsteam amplification and ridge formation.

UKMO 144 for example shows cut off heights just SW of Greenland which could only aid these attempts to reamplify the pattern from the West.

UN144-21.GIF?08-17

And GFS 168

gfsnh-0-168.png?12

 

No firm suggestion yet it will be enough to hold up the Atlantic and allow cold arctic air to flood South after mid month but if you are hoping for a quick return to blocking rather than a slow decline into Atlantic driven weather then this is your best hope of moving toward anything like this at day 10+

gensnh-11-1-240.png

 

It is not the most likely outcome right now but post day 6+ looks messy and it will be a while before know exactly what pattern we will transition into as the Scandi high declines.

 

 

Edited by Mucka
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