Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[North-Easterly Blast]

Looks like there are signs that we may get a N'ly toppler late next week but nothing more than that.  February almost certain to end up a fair bit above average now, and I now find it difficult to see March being anything other than above average now - March rarely is cold after a mild February.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, TEITS said:

Have to be honest nothing in the model output suggests anything exciting except a weak, shortlived N,ly at the moment. I do disagree with your last sentence. A decent snowfall in March away from the areas you mention might be uncommon during the daylight hrs. However what is perfectly possible for low lying areas in the S is a decent snowfall during the night. You do however need to be up early taking your pics before the sun starts thawing the lying snow.

That's not 'proper snowfall' to me Dave. Hence my comment. I need to be able to walk in it with the sun beating down and then see it become icy underfoot after a frost or two thereafter. 

[Man With Beard]

GFS 06Z - some sleet opportunities coming up at D9, might be enough snow to build a snowball on hilltops

  

[mb018538]

Looks like coldies will have to pin everything on the SSW that is forecast for the end of the month going into March. Personally it doesn't interest me now winter is almost done with, but some crumbs if you are that way inclined. We appear to have some agreement that things will stay mild until the end of next week, when we will be hit with a colder shot from the north. Snow risk certainly over high ground, perhaps to lower levels too. After this things are a bit more uncertain, and all eyes will be on the potential effects of the SSW!

[Frosty.]

From now until early next week it looks changeable, especially across the west and north, drier and brighter for the south and east and much milder than recently, in particular Monday which looks very mild according to the GEFS 6z mean but thereafter temps slide closer to average but the main feature as we look ahead through late Feb / early March is it looks generally unsettled and windy at times, especially further north with ebbing and flowing of lower heights to the nw / n and high pressure (ridges) mainly to the southwest / south where the best of any fine weather would be...so, I'm thinking short-lived colder phases with a risk of wintry showers and night frosts, especially across northern uk but generally on the mild side, occasionally very mild but wet and windy at times, however, when we catch a break between weather systems, fine with fog and slight frosts..mainly in the south of the uk.

Edited February 16, 2017 by Frosty.

[Day10]

I think you covered all weather bases there Frosty... 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, bluekipper said:

I think you covered all weather bases there Frosty... 

Haha..I should be right then

[Sparkiee storm]

GFS certainly brings spring like conditions early next week but what happens thereafter is still up  for grabs, not expecting any real cold, like most said probably just a toppler like shown on the model. As for the SSW forecast for the end of the month, I can see it turning out to be a repeat of last year, With a chilly mid/late march.

[karyo]

I received the heaviest snowfall of last year (in fact the heaviest in years) on 4th March which resulted in the hills east of Manchester having several inches of snow up to the 8th of March. It was a proper sledging weekend! So I hope this gets repeated even if it is later in March.

As for proper snow being dry powdery snow that lasts all day under the sun, well, we don't even get that in January so if we have that as a benchmark we will end up with disappointment 99.9% of the time!

At this stage, I am pleased to see consistency in the stratosheric charts for late Feb.

[igloo]

5 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Looks like there are signs that we may get a N'ly toppler late next week but nothing more than that.  February almost certain to end up a fair bit above average now, and I now find it difficult to see March being anything other than above average now - March rarely is cold after a mild February.

not true march 2013 was the coldest for 100 years after a mild february but im sure no one on this forum will be alive before we get another like that again 

[cheeky_monkey]

9 minutes ago, igloo said:

not true march 2013 was the coldest for 100 years after a mild february but im sure no one on this forum will be alive before we get another like that again 

February 2013 was 1c below average 

[Nick L]

Models please...

[Frosty.]

Very spring like weather on the way from the Gfs 12z with temps potentially topping 60F early next week, it then briefly turns cooler from the west before another pulse of Tm air but then winter returns for a time, at least to Scotland but the main theme of the reliable timeframe into early FI is for exceptionally mild conditions for the time of year.

Edited February 16, 2017 by Frosty.

[North-Easterly Blast]

41 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

February 2013 was 1c below average 

You are correct.  February 2013 was not mild; it had a CET of 3.2, not a desperately cold Feb but still 0.6*C below average on the colder 1961-90 scale.  Still a decent winter month to say the least.  Feb 2013, believe it or not was actually the second coldest in 21 years so far. 

[Matthew.]

Running through FI on the GFS 12z  it seems theres quite a fast jetstream pushing the lows coming from the NW Atlantic west to east reasonably quickly therefore a polar maritime flow then the high amplification mid atlantic pushes across the south then setting up a sw'terly then back to square 1. All in all a preety swift run of the mill. It's coming over me that the start of March may well not be quite as settled as first thought therefore changeable

[The PIT]

Well nothing cold in tonight's gfs run even well out into lala land.  However well in deep fi land a chance of blocking. I know it's another GFS tease and won't come off.

[Frosty.]

Next Monday looks warm, could be 16/17c on Ecm 12z..BBQ time

[Walsall Wood Snow]

3 hours ago, igloo said:

not true march 2013 was the coldest for 100 years after a mild february but im sure no one on this forum will be alive before we get another like that again 

It was actually the coldest in only 51 years. But yeah still a bloody long time.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z isn't all mild, it does show a polar maritime shot later next week, cold enough for showers to become wintry with snow on hills and a few frosty nights but next Monday really does look potentially the warmest day of the year so far, tues less warm but still mild in the south before a change midweek to cooler / fresher and eventually colder air before temps recover again towards the end. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z isn't all mild, it does show a polar maritime shot later next week, cold enough for showers to become wintry with snow on hills and a few frosty nights but next Monday really does look potentially the warmest day of the year so far, tues less warm but still mild in the south before a change midweek to cooler / fresher and eventually colder air before temps recover again towards the end. 

Prefer Mondays chart Frosty! I mean who (south) wants wet, windy, 5° unpleasant, over Springlike 15°?

[Seasonality]

Stop with this silly semi-coldness ecm. Winter, you've had your chance in central Europe. Time for Spring. 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Prefer Mondays chart Frosty! I mean who (south) wants wet, windy, 5° unpleasant, over Springlike 15°?

I agree, if it's not cold enough to snow I would prefer 59F with the sun gaining strength and height by the day.

[booferking]

ECM is cold windy with rain in the fi no thank you winter has had its chance and it failed us lets move on to Spring,  this Monday coming looks very pleasant tho. 

[feb1991blizzard]

I take the fact that there is no comment on the EC46 weekly anomalies as they are poor, has anyone got all the weekly height anomalies please?

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended is quite a bit different to GFS and ECM over the UK at D7