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Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Volitle model outputs indeed a split average zonal or heights over the uk or north south split dryer in the south but what is noticeable it's the polar vortex trying to get over to the siberian side.

But there's no clear evolution very dissapointed plenty of egg on my face that's for sure.

But anyway might as well hunt for some early spring warmth.

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
1 hour ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Volitle model outputs indeed a split average zonal or heights over the uk or north south split dryer in the south but what is noticeable it's the polar vortex trying to get over to the siberian side.

But there's no clear evolution very dissapointed plenty of egg on my face that's for sure.

But anyway might as well hunt for some early spring warmth.

As you say ,no clear evolution yet ,but I,m hoping a visit from the North at end of month ,today's gfs not the best for cold lovers ,think it's a case of just waiting (yet again ) for the Hunt ,great forum gang ,I, v been lurking of late as nursing my 94 yr old mother in law who passed away last week ,cheers gang .:hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
6 hours ago, jvenge said:

That Phase 8 looks quite pronounced. Any past stats to show how it compares to past records? I wouldn't have thought there would be too many to equal that.

Joe B tweeted this 24 hours ago

strongest phase 8 MJO in 40 plus years record forecasted now on BOMM, NCEP, ECMWF, JMA  Amazing
Just went through  major warm phases 5,6,7

GFS is quite consistently playing with N/NW incursions near the rear end of February I've noted. Hopefully, we see a much better response to this, it might take till March to really emerge. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Back in familiar territory chasing Ecm cold potential at T+240 hours..does any coldie have the strength left for that?:D

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Back in familiar territory chasing Ecm cold potential at T+240 hours..does any coldie have the strength left for that?:D

sadly not Frosty, in Spring thoughts now, Monday 20th Feb, first day of the holidays, showing up consistently at 14° and fine!

ukmaxtemp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bishop Auckland, Durham NE
  • Location: Bishop Auckland, Durham NE
10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Back in familiar territory chasing Ecm cold potential at T+240 hours..does any coldie have the strength left for that?:D

Hopefully.... Im watching for signs of any cold/snow getting into the scottish highlands for when we go skiing 2nd weekend in march (11th/12th).  Pretty low snow cover up there currently so could do with a nice dumping before then and hopefully no/little wind so the lifts can run.

 

In Durham, we had frost/ice on the cars this morningm.  Still must be getting pretty cold on a night.

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Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
5 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

I think it would be snow at the top of the Shard, BA

Hello MWB,

Funny you should say that. Before I retired my office was based at Euston Tower a 31 storey tower block. My workplace was on the 27th floor. In marginal snow situations there were occasions when there was snow falling outside my window but by the time it reached ground level it had arrived as rain.

Kind Regards

Dave

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Posted
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold , snow . Hot sunny
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
54 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nice chart but I'm not thinking of spring just yet, still waiting for our first proper cold spell of the winter:whistling:

Time to get the BBQ out by the looks of that chart :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The anomalies this evening continue the theme of the pattern change that they have been indicating for a while with the transition occurring across the 5-10 and 10-15 divide.

Consequently in the 5-10 period we are looking at a rather complex vortex with the main lobe still around Franz Joseph Land but interest with the N. Canadian lobe gaining momentum. Thus the strong ridge over N. America weakens and begins the retrogression to the GOA  Meanwhile we still have some positive anomalies in the eastern Atlantic with some ridging from the Azores thus a retention of the fairly strong W/WNW flow around the high pressure. Ergo a continuation of pretty dry weather in the south with frontal systems forced NE. Temps average or above. As always the precise details as to the phasing of the warm/cold air down to the det. runs

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.884a4b2adc6d930d62e45c1416bd5994.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.17e1115bb2b4117a8630a747ba0c73b5.png610day_03.thumb.gif.03e59cab661ad191807d938113e3a301.gif

In the ext period the transition is complete with the N. American ridge replaced by a trough and with the suggestion of a Scandinavian trough and even one from Greenland to mid Atlantic it all has a zonality look portending more unsettled weather forthe whole of the UK with temps around average.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_63.thumb.png.c61605df370b8900b3b8f7e975ebede3.png814day_03.thumb.gif.92fe0140179b9129200bdf95a39fac33.gif

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
28 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Now what was I saying about that scandi high? :)

The control evolution is one which would find favour on here as the transition to scandi high has a snow event across parts of the uk

looks a lonely solution

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The control evolution is one which would find favour on here as the transition to scandi high has a snow event across parts of the uk

looks a lonely solution

It does look lonely. However, there is that hint of heights rising in the same locale at day 10 on the operational as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
22 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It does look lonely. However, there is that hint of heights rising in the same locale at day 10 on the operational as well.

I must admit I was puzzled by your earlier comment

Quote

Hints of a pressure rise over scandi on the ecm day 10. Some very cold uppers over there by then

Whilst I agree vis the uppers these are the operational day ten charts

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.thumb.png.5cccd7c69015588d108a1c0dba7a4511.png.ecm_z500_anom_natl_11.thumb.png.4be92c3432e14745a5f7ff1824608c50.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
12 minutes ago, knocker said:

I must admit I was puzzled by your earlier comment

Whilst I agree vis the uppers these are the operational day ten charts

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.thumb.png.5cccd7c69015588d108a1c0dba7a4511.png.ecm_z500_anom_natl_11.thumb.png.4be92c3432e14745a5f7ff1824608c50.png

 

Chasing day 10 charts has been the theme of this winter for the coldies. Why stop now? Lol

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Chasing day 10 charts has been the theme of this winter for the coldies. Why stop now? Lol

Oh I appreciate that, but was just wondering where you got your hints of pressure rises over Scandinavia from. LoL

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Oh I appreciate that, but was just wondering where you got your hints of pressure rises over Scandinavia from. LoL

Pressure rises from 995 to 1010 just off the northern coast of Norway from day 9 to 10. Optimal place for the UK to receive it's long over due proper easterly :) Yes, it may well be a transient pressure rise but I will be keeping an eye out on future runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Not seeing that either myself....our best hope is the lagged response to ssw and mjo in phase 8. At present milder and the usual nw /se split is set to hold for the forseeable future.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Pressure rises from 995 to 1010 just off the northern coast of Norway from day 9 to 10. Optimal place for the UK to receive it's long over due proper easterly :) Yes, it may well be a transient pressure rise but I will be keeping an eye out on future runs.

That's the spirit, don't give up as there is still plenty of time left for a proper cold spell to develop..Yes the models show a milder changeable outlook but coldies need to hang in there.:)

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