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Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?


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No significant change in the anomalies this evening from last evening and they are all on the same page.

In the 5-10 range the vortex over Franz Joseph land.trough eastern Pacific and western Atlantic with a ridge situated in eastern N.America (some intense WAA), Thus a fairly weak jet tracking SE out of N. America and then NE around the Azores ridge situated to the SW of the UK before settling on a upper flow from the WNW over the UK. This has all the indications on a N/S split as systems track around the HP with the south remaining dry. Just how the detail of this split materializes depends on the det runs interpretation of colder/warmer air phasing but certainly the percentage play remains a fairly quiet period interspersed with the odd unsettled foray from the Atlantic with temps significantly up on this weekend.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.c27db3bea069b7ea70804faca13143f1.pngecm_eps_t850a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.64e06c51f1f321647bbfc532c84e1e0a.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.24d2d5eda8d91db4f15f071a512fdee5.png

610day_03.thumb.gif.78275fafb774e9f9bdb92a23aea8c602.gif

Still some significant changes as we proceed. Upstream a lobe of the vortex N. Canada, retrogression of the N, American ridge to GOA. With the main arm of the vortex now over NE Europe and the positive anomalies weakening to the SW of the UK a more zonal westerly flow ensues with perhaps a period of more unsettled weather with the temps possibly varying around the average

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.da9b5ecfb3fdd8207927d69a3174bbc9.png814day_03.thumb.gif.8e1dedea7a4eaabb2f6c3e549734a38a.gif

 

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58 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

Perhaps coldies should take a break and maybe view the models again Friday morning, seeing as we shall most likely be in a period of milder weather for at least 4 or 5 days (also projection-wise)

Positives to be had by saving on heating bills, I wont complain. 10-12c in the day looking likely in south UK midweek onwards.

Wouldn't it be amazing to have an early March potent easterly with sub -10c uppers and low thickenesses, the power of the sun, the contrast between North Sea SST and a deep cold pool aloft. It would be fanstastic to see some proper convection.

Its not over until mid March for me personally.

 

Stratosphere gph profile charts look very tasty by months end, so wouldn't rule anything off the table. Would agree though once we get into March you need  the coldest uppers and cloud cover to support lowland laying snow cover or deep surface cold similar to what we saw in late March 2013 which came from a Easterly. 

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The GEFs continues it's upstream transition to a GOA ridge and a vortex lobe N. Canada leading downstream to a zonal Atlantic with faint ridging to the SW and S. As of last evening some indications of a Scandinavian trough late in the day which may, repeat may, be reflected in some Pm incursions.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_53.thumb.png.044bd9188d4dc37393198b16ae4c5465.png

Meanwhile back at the ranch not a great deal to report with the transition of the high pressure  from the east to the south west and south and the westerly flow promoting Atlantic incursions around the ridge. Ergo mainly dry in the south with temps around average or above.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.566a54d3999526b31dfffa473538e320.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_23.thumb.png.614a9510c765c8a63922e049e437230d.pnggfs_t2maf_slp_eur3_40.thumb.png.8216d57aa7f67bacd4206f34300bffc7.png

As an aside this morning's 100mb chart at T360 is not adverse to the vortex/trough influencing the UK.

2017021300_f360_100.nonenonehghtnonenone_g201_mrf.thumb.gif.d49ce5fc75b34c1ba495fabf1c6eca66.gif

Edited by knocker
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1 hour ago, knocker said:

The GEFs continues it's upstream transition to a GOA ridge and a vortex lobe N. Canada leading downstream to a zonal Atlantic with faint ridging to the SW and S. As of last evening some indications of a Scandinavian trough late in the day which may, repeat may, be reflected in some Pm incursions.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_53.thumb.png.044bd9188d4dc37393198b16ae4c5465.png

Meanwhile back at the ranch not a great deal to report with the transition of the high pressure  from the east to the south west and south and the westerly flow promoting Atlantic incursions around the ridge. Ergo mainly dry in the south with temps around average or above.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.566a54d3999526b31dfffa473538e320.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_23.thumb.png.614a9510c765c8a63922e049e437230d.pnggfs_t2maf_slp_eur3_40.thumb.png.8216d57aa7f67bacd4206f34300bffc7.png

As an aside this morning's 100mb chart at T360 is not adverse to the vortex/trough influencing the UK.

2017021300_f360_100.nonenonehghtnonenone_g201_mrf.thumb.gif.d49ce5fc75b34c1ba495fabf1c6eca66.gif

Beautiful, Knocker. I'm looking forward to an early Spring. 

GEFS mean anomaly is also going for mild mild mild. I may be seeing 14 degrees in a few weeks, which would be spectacular.

One can't help but feel that if a turn around in model output is coming, it will manifest if the 6-8 day range, rather than looking into the depths of FI. It would be a little too simple to be able to countdown Spring from 15 days out :-)

gefs_t2anom_16_eur_1 (11).png

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Looking at the models, I think that's pretty much it as far as a cold spell is concerned for the rest of February. It looks like a generally unsettled and much milder outlook with just short-lived colder incursions, mainly across the north and some brief quieter interludes with fog and frost, chiefly in the s / se.

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6 hours ago, jvenge said:

Beautiful, Knocker. I'm looking forward to an early Spring. 

GEFS mean anomaly is also going for mild mild mild. I may be seeing 14 degrees in a few weeks, which would be spectacular.

One can't help but feel that if a turn around in model output is coming, it will manifest if the 6-8 day range, rather than looking into the depths of FI. It would be a little too simple to be able to countdown Spring from 15 days out :-)

gefs_t2anom_16_eur_1 (11).png

Europe deserves a warm up now. However I note a reappearance of scatter and cooler runs appearing in the ensembles for the last third of the month that wasn't there of late.

 

gefstmp2mmaxWarsaw_Poland (6).png

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8 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Europe deserves a warm up now..gefstmp2mmaxWarsaw_Poland (6).png

And the uk deserves a proper cold spell! however, it looks like the models are taking us towards a much milder and generally unsettled pattern.

 

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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

And the uk deserves a proper cold spell! however, it looks like the models are taking us towards a much milder and generally unsettled pattern.

 

Difficult to get it Frosty at this time of year now. Backend of February to early March you need something more special as opposed to January. Not saying it can't happen, but the chances aren't good.

19 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Europe deserves a warm up now. However I note a reappearance of scatter and cooler runs appearing in the ensembles for the last third of the month that wasn't there of late.

 

gefstmp2mmaxWarsaw_Poland (6).png

I'd love an early Spring, but I'm doubtful :-) Some corkers in the GEFS though, but I'm skeptical when they are as far out as they are. I'll believe it nearer T144.

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The ECM improves in terms of some potential towards day 9 and 10 and the GFS moves in the other direction. I think the issue still remains the reluctance of the outputs to remove a chunk of the PV over ne Canada. Theres no chance of ridging north whilst that remains there. If more amplitude does appear upstream then the troughing to the east from day 8 to 10 is well placed. It still overall looks a bit messy and complicated, the Azores high is trapped in and can't escape nw because of that shortwave energy off the ne USA. I still wouldn't rule out some cold towards the end of February , theres certainly a good source of that to the ne and any more amplitude upstream could deliver that south into the UK.

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Still pretty good agreement with the anomalies this evening.

Still the main lobe of the vortex around Franz Joseph area but signs of it becoming more complex with another lobe around N. Canada. Still the trough in the western Pacific and western Atlantic with the ridge in N. America producing some very positive anomalous temps.Thus a continuation of the upper flow swinging out of North America setting up a zonal westerly pattern that swings around the ridging in the eastern Atlantic. Ergo little change to the previous general analysis of the southern half of the UK remaining predominate;y dry as systems tend to impact the north west. The detail as usual to be sorted by the det. runs. Temps around average or slightly above.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.331c1b9e4e36408af94eaf0978022805.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.ca5e677650577443086c9358a1d223d1.png610day_03.thumb.gif.d2f4facbd6d3ee5b8eadfaa667134773.gif

The 10-15 period continues the readjustment of the vortex with a stronger N. Canada/Greenland lobe. the retrogression of the N. American ridge to the GOA and thus a more definitive zonal flow with the decline of the ridge in the eastern Atlantic. The GEFS is bowing a little to a trough over the UK and mid Atlantic ridge. All this would tend to suggest a generally more unsttled picture for the UK with temps still around average or above.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.5844f08ae7b7fb3c364b642ea267aa54.png814day_03.thumb.gif.ee125de1923803eb2495b4a23dd47b5b.gif

 

Edited by knocker
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2 minutes ago, Stozzy said:

Nice looking charts in the reliable timeframe :bad:. Mainly dry , rain at times in the north and west , mild . Roll on summer 

IMG_1397.PNG

If you consider that a nice looking chart then you must love UK's default weather, wet (but not tropical amounts)  and generally the average uk winter bordering spring / autumn temps.

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20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If you consider that a nice looking chart then you must love UK's default weather, wet (but not tropical amounts)  and generally the average uk winter bordering spring / autumn temps.

Hence with the emoji . Sorry there was a bit of sycasm , it couldn't be any worse really 

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