Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[booferking]

59 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Just to throw a theory in if the ECM improves and slows the upstream pattern. It could be that the models caught onto a phase 1 MJO signal because of the velocity potential MJO forecast, in a sense this became the overriding signal however this may have been incorrect and the second more MJO typical type convection signature which is just in phase 7 is now battling with that other signal.

Wonder if we can build on this more amplified run by run in the coming days.

Edited February 10, 2017 by booferking

[Matthew.]

Day 10 possibilities on the ECM for a AM conversion but apart from that it looks like the Lows coming out from the US are pepping up a notch. Looks like the Azores ridge is not as influential as recently.

[nick sussex]

Well an improvement in the ECM and our crumb of hope might become a bit bigger. The big 3 all have differing views of the upstream pattern at T144hrs as to which of those lows is the main one.

After this mornings truly horrid output from a cold perspective its a bit better. We'll see in the morning whether this gathers pace or whether its a fleeting crumb.

Further to my earlier post re the correct MJO signal, I've just read from a certain place beginning with T that someone well known in MJO circles has just said the MJO is heading for phase 8, no mention of the VP200 which looks uninterested and wants to circle the COD and head into phase 1. Also cold for the eastern USA which normally means some troughing there, that normally means a ridge ahead of that so its bizarre to see what the models have been doing.

Edited February 10, 2017 by nick sussex

[phil nw.]

15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well an improvement in the ECM and our crumb of hope might become a bit bigger. The big 3 all have differing views of the upstream pattern at T144hrs as to which of those lows is the main one.

After this mornings truly horrid output from a cold perspective its a bit better. We'll see in the morning whether this gathers pace or whether its a fleeting crumb.

Yes a flicker of interest from that ridging Nick,Whether anything comes from it we will have to see.Still some hope perhaps in the medium term for something colder from the north.Models continue to show a large chunk of the vortex moving across towards the Siberian side hopefully this leaves a window to our nw for some better height rises.

Can we build on this and get a Scandi trough dropping south i wonder.

[nick sussex]

11 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes a flicker of interest from that ridging Nick,Whether anything comes from it we will have to see.Still some hope perhaps in the medium term for something colder from the north.Models continue to show a large chunk of the vortex moving across towards the Siberian side hopefully this leaves a window to our nw for some better height rises.

Can we build on this and get a Scandi trough dropping south i wonder.

To be honest Phil my model watching reserves are almost depleted! Its been a long mainly fruitless winter and trying to get everything to come together to produce a decent UK wide spell of cold and snow is fast turning into the search for the Holy Grail! But I will remain on duty till the end of the winter!

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

43 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

To be honest Phil my model watching reserves are almost depleted! Its been a long mainly fruitless winter and trying to get everything to come together to produce a decent UK wide spell of cold and snow is fast turning into the search for the Holy Grail! But I will remain on duty till the end of the winter!

Hi I wondering if we could get any upgrades on the pub run for the northerly chance next weekend seems to be getting a trend any other signals that could lead it to verify a few ens drop too on the 19th Feb? 

[Man With Beard]

Looks to me on the 12Z ens that low heights might start to re-establish by D10. The milder air looks like being pushed further and further south so that only Iberia is affected. This would be very good news for those still seeking sleet/wintry showers as Atlantic lows may well dive towards Europe by D12-D15, allowing a window of a few hours as the lows cross the UK for a back-edge north-westerly to provide a covering of sludge on high ground.

[kumquat]

All three big guns looking to build heights NW at 144. Hope we will see this trend develop over next couple of days:

UKMO

 

ECM

 

GFS

 

I'm still holding out for some late Feb snow.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, kumquat said:

All three big guns looking to build heights NW at 144. Hope we will see this trend develop over next couple of days:

UKMO

 

ECM

 

GFS

 

I'm still holding out for some late Feb snow.

Oooh, that's the first time I have seen the ukmo today and I like what I see

[Singularity]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Well an improvement in the ECM and our crumb of hope might become a bit bigger. The big 3 all have differing views of the upstream pattern at T144hrs as to which of those lows is the main one.

After this mornings truly horrid output from a cold perspective its a bit better. We'll see in the morning whether this gathers pace or whether its a fleeting crumb.

Further to my earlier post re the correct MJO signal, I've just read from a certain place beginning with T that someone well known in MJO circles has just said the MJO is heading for phase 8, no mention of the VP200 which looks uninterested and wants to circle the COD and head into phase 1. Also cold for the eastern USA which normally means some troughing there, that normally means a ridge ahead of that so its bizarre to see what the models have been doing.

I've been unable to locate the post you speak of but am happy to take your word for it.

One of two things happens over the next few days; either it turns out the models have too much response to VP200 - taken in isolation - built into them relative to the changes in heat and moisture flux caused by convective anomalies, in which case the low over/near the U.S. gets held up more and more and/or made sharper with more of a mid-Atlantic ridge that could well exploit the window of opportunity to establish at least a short stay to our NW, or... this is a red herring from the models; a fluctuation that appears to be in response to a change in forcing but actually isn't. There's been far too much of that this winter - the worst I've known for periodically masquerading as something more promising 

[nick sussex]

Just now, Singularity said:

I've been unable to locate the post you speak of but am happy to take your word for it.

One of two things happens over the next few days; either it turns out the models have too much response to VP200 - taken in isolation - built into them relative to the changes in heat and moisture flux caused by convective anomalies, in which case the low over/near the U.S. gets held up more and more and/or made sharper with more of a mid-Atlantic ridge that could well exploit the window of opportunity to establish at least a short stay to our NW, or... this is a red herring from the models; a fluctuation that appears to be in response to a change in forcing but actually isn't. There's been far too much of that this winter - the worst I've known for periodically masquerading as something more promising 

It wasn't a post but on that platform I'm not allowed to mention in here by a certain Mr MV of MJO fame. I just would have thought that he wouldn't mention the phase 8 and cold for the east USA if he was putting his stall in the VP200 because that's the subject of the contention behind the MJO signal and that's not interested in a high amplitude phase 8 signal. I agree though we'll either see that slowdown upstream or this will be a red herring designed for yet more cruelty to cold and snow lovers. As it is we need to see some fast changes upstream and even though tonights outputs were better they were hardly great, but given the 00hrs outputs which were a horror show of epic proportions for coldies any crumb of good news is welcome!

[phil nw.]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

To be honest Phil my model watching reserves are almost depleted! Its been a long mainly fruitless winter and trying to get everything to come together to produce a decent UK wide spell of cold and snow is fast turning into the search for the Holy Grail! But I will remain on duty till the end of the winter!

Yes i feel the same Nick as do many of us i would think-I did post similar thoughts this morning.We have seen so many promising charts disappear as we entered the reliable and instead it's been a Winter of mid-latitude blocking which on quite a few occasions has delivered frosts and dry conditions but little to excite snow lovers.

This evening's outputs offer a little medium term interest with signs of Atlantic ridging as we said earlier which may deliver a colder shot from the north but there's little else to hang our hats on in today's 12z runs.  

[nick sussex]

No joy on the GFS 18hrs run, very flat upstream and reluctant to move the main PV further east , leaving a lobe over ne Canada. There are big differences upstream between  this and the ECM, and given US forecasters are expecting several major winter storms over the ne USA into next weekend then this looks very progressive.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, nick sussex said:

No joy on the GFS 18hrs run, very flat upstream and reluctant to move the main PV further east , leaving a lobe over ne Canada. There are big differences upstream between  this and the ECM, and given US forecasters are expecting several major winter storms over the ne USA into next weekend then this looks very progressive.

Nick tbh I think any hope of that N'ly within 180-200 is barking up the wrong tree, the next chance (and it is a very decent chance of some sort of heights out west) is going to be late feb or more prob in March, whether it happens or not, whether its a short lived mid atlantic ridge with PM airmass, one of those circular highs close out west that I soo much detest!, or a proper Greeny is still to be determined.

[Nick F]

Yes, coldies better not look at the 18z GFS for next weekend, really is a horror show with a SWly flow sourced all the way the other side of the Azores with +10C T850s above the UK.next Sunday. Though it does redeem itself in FI.

Is rather at odds with the 12z ECM for noon on Sunday 19th, which has an prominent upper low still over Iberia.

 12z EC for 12z Sun 19/02                             18z GFS for 12z Sun 19/02

On the 12z EC and GFS operational runs we saw differences between the two models on how quickly they exit the upper low over NE N America and also trough disruption SE towards Iberia in the 8-10 day range

So certainly the models are not unanimous with the upper flow pattern in a weeks time over the Atlantic or even with to the north - with regards to how far down the low heights extend from the trop PV over the arctic.

Edited February 10, 2017 by Nick F

[feb1991blizzard]

Right on cue, here she comes - response to the displacement SSW.

[damianslaw]

Just thought I'd comment on the synoptical set up progged for Monday, the flow over the atlantic is easterly from the eastern seaboard to the west seaboard with low pressure tracking on a very southerly path to the south of this flow, not often you see this, but alas we are left with a SE flow.. if anyone looks back at the anomalies for this winter, on paper it would be screaming cold throughout, alas it hasn't been. 

Passing minimal comment on the models at the moment as the outlook remains far from certain.

[kumquat]

Not convinced by the Jetstream pushing across us so forcefully 120 – 192. Nor am I buying the stagnancy of the Greeny surface High from T60+

I feel Low heights will vacate that area towards Siberia much more quickly than progged. It’s like a log-jam area that the models cannot get a handle on yet.

 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Yes northerly far reaches of FI on gfs 18z and will never verify roll on next winter or can some give any hope??? 

[kumquat]

17 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Yes northerly far reaches of FI on gfs 18z and will never verify roll on next winter or can some give any hope??? 

Well you're in Barnsley so a better chance than a lot of us. Probably tonight you'll get 0.125cm

Edit: massive blob in North Sea = 1cm by m0rn

Edited February 11, 2017 by kumquat

[Cheshire Freeze]

19 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Yes northerly far reaches of FI on gfs 18z and will never verify roll on next winter or can some give any hope??? 

Very good chance that the latter stages of GFS FI and ECM at 240 hours are starting to pick up a signal. The end of Feb into March has been picked up by a few on here for the potential to be of some interest.

Meanwhile CFS continues its seemingly ever present March signal...

I make that at least a solid month of this model showing the same scenario now (bar the odd run here and there as it runs 4 times a day). I bet the NOAA averaged charts look very tasty 

Certainly potential.....despite being WB at present

Edited February 11, 2017 by CreweCold

[Allseasons-Si]

14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Very good chance that the latter stages of GFS FI and ECM at 240 hours are starting to pick up a signal. The end of Feb into March has been picked up by a few on here for the potential to be of some interest.

Meanwhile CFS continues its seemingly ever present March signal...

I make that at least a solid month of this model showing the same scenario now (bar the odd run here and there as it runs 4 times a day). I bet the NOAA averaged charts look very tasty 

Certainly potential.....despite being WB at present

Didn't it show that for Dec,Jan and Feb?,maybe it's bais is more northern blocking than mid lat blocking?,still it could be right this month as we enter March,March 2013 re-visited perhaps.

Edited February 11, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[kumquat]

CC but doesn't that show us a bit too far out of the pattern? Weakish low height anomalies in the middle Med puts us pretty much where we are now. I'd like more of a smiley mouth and a flat nose.

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Didn't it show that for Dec,Jan and Feb?,maybe it's bais is more northern blocking than mid lat blocking?,still it could be right this month as we enter March,March 2013 re-visited perhaps.

The CFS was actually the one model that wasn't interested at all in a high lat blocked December and also it never had February down as being of note in this respect. The only month it flirted with high latitude heights was January.

The last time I saw the model so stubborn in its outlook (with a similar recurring anomaly profile) was prior to March 2013. Not saying that will be the case this time...merely pointing it out.

Edited February 11, 2017 by CreweCold

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The CFS was actually the one model that wasn't interested at all in a high lat blocked December and also it never had February down as being of note in this respect. The only month it flirted with high latitude heights was January.

Fair doo's buddy,i do check that model from time to time for trends but not all the time,i go there as a last resort to find some big straws to clutch lol,the gfs 18z showed some interest tonight in the longer term(fl),can it build on that tomorrow.

Edited February 11, 2017 by Allseasons-si