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Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, lassie23 said:

I think the GFS is under the weather and spewing out nonsense, mild and fairly settled seems to be the way forward.

252 is definitely nonsense!

gfs-0-252.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

252 is definitely nonsense!

gfs-0-252.png?12

Agreed, not going to get sucked in again by models showing cold and snow potential in FI..until the next run!:D

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Signs that the jet is set to ease north with milder air moving north through the rest of the week.

 ECM1-72.GIF?07-0

not completely settled as yet but certainly an improvement after the wet spell over the last couple of weeks.Signs too of the Azores high wanting to build towards us later on.

ECM1-144.GIF?07-0

Good to see.:)

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The models agree on high pressure building in early next week, the Ecm 12z is looking good..especially T+168..unfortunately, it doesn't last.

144_mslp500.png

168_mslp500.png

168_mslp850uk.png

192_mslp850.png

192_mslp850uk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Just as I had convinced my self that GFS has become no better that a cannon fodder model, ECM turns up with its flip flopping all over the place 12z.

So turning milder as per this T168 chart then is it, are we sure now?:cc_confused:

ECM1-168.GIF

ECM1-192.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Hold on a sec, no, turning colder then is it, northerly coming up?

Here we go again!!:doh:

ECM1-192-1.GIF

ECM0-192.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z eventually becomes quite cold with high pressure ridging northwards in the atlantic and a trough heading towards scandinavia with the uk in a showery polar maritime flow with the showers turning wintry with snow on hills and to lower levels in the heavier showers along with hail and thunder but with sunny spells in between and overnight frosts / icy patches.

216_mslp850uk.png

216_thickuk.png

216_mslp850.png

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp850uk.png

240_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12z eventually becomes quite cold with high pressure ridging north in the atlantic and a trough heading towards scandinavia with the uk in a showery polar maritime flow with the showers turning wintry. 

Yes cold end to the run, not from the East as per 00z, but from the North West this time. Turning milder then a lot colder mid month, with sunshine and scattered wintry showers blown in on a brisk West/Northwesterly wind.

ECM1-216.GIF

ECM0-216.GIF

ECM0-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
44 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

252 is definitely nonsense!

gfs-0-252.png?12

Maybe not ECM likes the GFS ends on a cold note.All FI and no doubt will change by the morning....won't It? 

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

These are the sort of fluctuations which are typical of early spring going from very mild and benign one day to cold and showery a day or two later so I wouldn't be too surprised if the Ecm 12z is actually quite realistic..for once!:D

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

These are the sort of fluctuations which are typical of early spring going from very mild and benign one day to cold and showery a day or two later so I wouldn't be too surprised if the Ecm 12z is actually quite realistic..for once!:D

That is until it introduces an easterly and a scandi high again on its 00z run.:D 

And at D10 of course.:rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Battersea, London
  • Location: Battersea, London
2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Really disappointing sets of charts for my location..staying cold or very cold right through until the last week of March..no sign of spring.

You are certainly not kidding, with maximum daytime temperature of-13 to -15, and night time temperature falling below -20, with you sharing(Edmonton, Canada) the same latitude has Liverpool, it is nice to know,

how the strong mid March sun is having little effect in raising the day time temperature, as the saying goes, if the uppers are cold in enough it will be cold in March, despite the sun`s strength.

Location, Battersea, London, Gender Male.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO shows high-pressure building in early next week

Monday is mostly dry away from Ireland and maybe the far west of England and Wales

ukm2.2017031312.144.lant.troplant.prp.fc

Tuesday maintains the high but it could have more cloud trapped under it so the chance of some light rain staying drier the further SE you are

ukm2.2017031412.168.lant.troplant.prp.fc

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
47 minutes ago, snowray said:

That is until it introduces an easterly and a scandi high again on its 00z run.:D 

And at D10 of course.:rofl:

Agreed, the Ecm 12z is nothing like the 00z in FI so I guess more runs are needed:D

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
53 minutes ago, Nigerian Prince said:

You are certainly not kidding, with maximum daytime temperature of-13 to -15, and night time temperature falling below -20, with you sharing(Edmonton, Canada) the same latitude has Liverpool, it is nice to know,

how the strong mid March sun is having little effect in raising the day time temperature, as the saying goes, if the uppers are cold in enough it will be cold in March, despite the sun`s strength.

Location, Battersea, London, Gender Male.

yep a high tomorrow forecast -20c with a low -29c...hardly springlike at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Nothing cold in the reliable timeframe from the ECM mean the Op goes colder but support from the mean is limited right until the end and given the latest fail for cold it would be best to ignore for now

565645.thumb.png.585762530e74745e16c20fda8f403f0f.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM weeklies maintain support for slightly milder than average conditions over the coming month

MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20170306_w1.pngMonthlyAnomalies_Rain_20170306_w1.png

MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20170306_w2.pngMonthlyAnomalies_Rain_20170306_w2.png

MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20170306_w3.pngMonthlyAnomalies_Rain_20170306_w3.png

MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20170306_w4.pngMonthlyAnomalies_Rain_20170306_w4.png


Precipitation

Weeks 1 & 3 shows above average rain virtually UK wide - the exception to this is this week in the south where signals are still weak

Week 2 shows the chance of slightly drier than average conditions towards the SE wetter than average further north and west suggesting a possible NW/SE split next week

Week 4 has no clear signals

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean doesn't indicate any cold weather, it looks changeable with the most unsettled conditions further n / nw with southern uk, especially the s / se enjoying the driest, brightest and mildest weather.

ECMAVGEU12_72_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_120_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Not a post about the models directly. However I just watched the weekly forecast by Nick Miller on the BBC News channel and I have to say he delivered it brilliantly explaining the different scenarios the computer models are churning out etc . I think if we are to gain more enthusiasts in this area we need forecasts like this . mods if you think this post is inappropriate please delete . Cheers 

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Interesting Gfs 18z tonight, generally changeable but with lengthy fine spells for the s / se and becoming mild / very mild across southern uk until well into next week followed by a change to polar air with even some snow and night frosts and then later it becomes settled / anticyclonic with night frosts and fog and fine days with sunny spells.

18_45_uk2mtmp.png

18_69_uk2mtmp.png

18_93_uk2mtmp.png

18_117_uk2mtmp.png

18_141_uk2mtmp.png

18_165_uk2mtmp.png

18_213_preciptype.png

18_213_mslp850.png

18_222_preciptype.png

18_228_uk2mtmpmin.png

18_336_mslp500.png

18_360_mslp500.png

18_384_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

It seems to me on the NOAA anomalies 6-10 and the 8-14 days that there looks like a battleground scenario giong on with atlantic depressions trying to get in but there is a block to the east over scandi as hinted by some of  the recent ops but the 18z gfs doesn't do this,who will be right?

610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

a downward trend (to cooler) temps compared to this mornings ec ens

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

Well, what to say. GFS for the 16th and 17th will be of interest to some, but after that it will be very spring like.

GEFS not entirely buying into the cold on the 16th and 17th, but it is certainly hinted at, not really agreeing with the mild that comes after, but at the range, that isn't too unusual.

Over the next week or so Europe is enjoying some impressively warm temperatures for the time of year. As I type I see blue sky and sun and expect temperatures to get to 17 degrees today :-) 

Captură de ecran din 2017.03.08 la 09.53.54.png

Captură de ecran din 2017.03.08 la 09.51.23.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO shows high pressure starting to build in next week cloud amounts will vary where it's thicker we could see some light rain/drizzle

ukm2.2017031212_108_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.db9bf67e2e642bfdfc78d0d3c59afbb6.pngukm2.2017031300_120_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.fb293593310c0705bf19232c09099e60.pngukm2.2017031400_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.291bbf0456732434a7cb308d6e580548.pngukm2.2017031500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.448c56ca6098c1937cdba5bd867bdc1f.png

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
9 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

It seems to me on the NOAA anomalies 6-10 and the 8-14 days that there looks like a battleground scenario giong on with atlantic depressions trying to get in but there is a block to the east over scandi as hinted by some of  the recent ops but the 18z gfs doesn't do this,who will be right?

610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

a downward trend (to cooler) temps compared to this mornings ec ens

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Sorry but on the 500 mb anomaly charts there is little sign of any significant blocking to my eyes. Any surface features (lows) running across the Atlantic will not be stopped but travel in a ENE or NE direction on the contour lines. An over simplification but they are not being blocked.

see Met Fax charts at the bottom, scroll to the bottom for both the predicted upper pattern and that at the surface. This may perhaps make the probable upper pattern a bit clearer. Most of any upper ridge is going to be from the Azores region, on current predictions.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

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