Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[Man With Beard]

Not much for me to add to the above posts - a little monsoon period for the UK possibly as the lows keep firing at us - teasingly close to getting a polar draw but needs to be a perfect shot in March, which this probably won't be (apart from farther north where it looks knife-edge for a blizzard at times). Like I said a few days ago, a bit like November in the coming two weeks. BBQs to remain in sheds!

[summer blizzard]

Euro has a more sluggish jet stream however it never has the cold air in place to gain from that.

[knocker]

For the next ten days the GFS remains unsettled with temps around average. perhaps a tad above, with a strong jet continuing to pour forth from the southern states ,

This morning Ewan forms west of Ireland and quickly runs NE and deepens  to be 977mb over Wick by 1800z. So briefly some strong SW/W winds in the north west and some snow.

This quickly slips away to the NE as the amplification out west gets underway as the Azores ridges and the deep low between Iceland and Greenland tracks south east over Britain as it fills establishing a large complex area of low pressure over the UK and points east, including another intense little low that has spawned in the circulation bringing some more wind and rain.

This low quickly moves away SE followed by some very brief ridging before the next complex low pressure area arrives bringing periods of rain next weekend. Albeit it's relatively warm rain.

There is some brief ridging as this area also fills and moves away before the next system arrives at the beginning of next week.

It will certainly be a  "get in there" from Sidney when he sees the latest GEFS

 

Edited February 26, 2017 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Scope for some wintry showers pushing S/E Monday night, As temps drop into the evening under a chilly N/W wind. As shown by the in-house NetWx-SR Model.

 

Edited February 26, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[KTtom]

Certainly looks like a classic 'kitchen sink' situation both Monday  and Tuesday with some heavy showers around bringing snow quite widely over higher ground even in the south. 

 

Edited February 26, 2017 by KTtom
To move discussion on.

[mb018538]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

Looks like after turning negative, the AO is forecast to sharply (and quickly) bounce back to positive values. If that verifies, we can finally wave goodbye to winter 16/17, the winter that promised so much, yet delivered so little.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows some wintry ppn during the coming days / night's, especially further north and with elevation although later tomorrow there is even a risk of snow in Ireland, Wales and the southwest.

Edited February 26, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z turns more spring-like temperature wise during low res as winds become more southerly in direction pumping milder air up from southern europe / azores.

Edited February 26, 2017 by Frosty.

[phil nw.]

We are entering the time of year when we can see quite a difference in conditions across the UK as the Polar and Tropical air masses battle for supremacy.The coming few days are quite interesting from this pov especially with an active Atlantic jet tracking around our latitude.

A few images from the GFS 06 z for this coming Wednesday for example

There's the jet running across the south,the 850hPa temperatures and the surface temperatures modeled at that time clearly illustrating the differences between north and south.

We can see dramatic changes between locations at this time of year from say blizzards in upland Scotland to double figures and bright periods in the far south depending on where the dividing line(the jet)is.These differences further emphasised by heights above sea level in any polar incursions.

I think the following week or two could well turn up more of  these sort of scenarios with the current Northern Hemisphere pattern being shown.

 

Edited February 26, 2017 by phil nw.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows a generally unsettled outlook for the next few weeks although just for a time, high pressure tries to ridge up from the south but on balance, doesn't succeed..it looks like typical early spring weather with the lowest temps in scotland and closer to average further south..hints of a possible cold snap later with mid atlantic ridge and scandi trough.

Edited February 26, 2017 by Frosty.

[Nouska]

The huge low pressure system in the Atlantic, with very cold uppers, is giving rise to a lovely convective 'rash' on satellite presentation.

    

 

 

[Lowestoft Weather]

Some snowfall surprises for a few I suspect from tomorrow afternoon through to Tuesday morning, especially those located further west across the UK where most of the precipitation will be being exposed to the Atlantic. 

Sub 528 dam engulfs the UK & Ireland

Dew points at or below freezing

With low heights, the cold atmosphere and ever increasing sun strength there will be some big wintry showers tomorrow late afternoon with rain, sleet, hail stones, increasing snowfall and thunder as convection peaks inland. Could be some decent coverings in the west overnight even to low levels!

 

 

Edited February 26, 2017 by Gavin Plummer

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Gavin Plummer said:

Some snowfall surprises for a few I suspect from tomorrow afternoon through to Tuesday morning, especially those located further west across the UK where most of the precipitation will be being exposed to the Atlantic. 

Sub 528 dam engulfs the UK & Ireland

Dew points at or below freezing

With low heights, the cold atmosphere and ever increasing sun strength there will be some big wintry showers tomorrow late afternoon with rain, sleet, hail stones, increasing snowfall and thunder as convection peaks inland. Could be some decent coverings in the west overnight even to low levels!

 

 

Yes tomorrow looks an exciting day weatherwise with some big wintry showers and surprise accumulations, beautiful cloud formations..beats the boring MLB dry, dull dross we had for most of the winter!..enjoy!

Edited February 26, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Casting the net out further into March, there are some wintry signs from the GEFS 6z which would tie in with the met office hints at cold outbreaks with snow in places during mid / late March which to me is exciting considering how insipid the last three months have been..this isn't the time for coldies to throw in the towel with charts like these! 

Edited February 26, 2017 by Frosty.

[John Badrick]

36 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Casting the net out further into March, there are some wintry signs from the GEFS 6z which would tie in with the met office hints at cold outbreaks with snow in places during mid / late March which to me is exciting considering how insipid the last three months have been..this isn't the time for coldies to throw in the towel with charts like these! 

But they are 2 weeks away so completly pointless!!

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, John Badrick said:

But they are 2 weeks away so completly pointless!!

Sorry but its not pointless, if you had read what I said about the charts I posted tie in with the hints from the pros at Exeter regarding mid / late March..all to play for!

[markyo]

17 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

But they are 2 weeks away so completly pointless!!

Why pointless? Yes 2 weeks out,lot of change will happen but it's a possible trend,other output also suggests the same.

[Gowon]

The HIRLAM is showing a period of heavy snow for the lucky Northerners tomorrow evening.

[A Frayed Knot]

7 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

The HIRLAM is showing a period of heavy snow for the lucky Northerners tomorrow evening.

And Wales if i am looking at it the right way .??

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows snow around later tomorrow, especially nw england, wales, ireland..even southwest england! Overnight it turns frosty with icy patches.

Edited February 26, 2017 by Frosty.

[knocker]

Might be interesting, but probably not, but the gfs is trying to interrupt the Atlantic influence by introducing the idea of more permanent ridging in the vicinity of the UK as a result of some renewed amplification

Edited February 26, 2017 by knocker

[Gowon]

Just now, A Frayed Knot said:

And Wales if i am looking at it the right way .??

I was looking more at the intensity but you're correct - North Wales could receive an short heavy period of snow as it passes through the afternoon.

[Frosty.]

Nice spell of spring-like anticyclonic weather in the extended range on the Gfs 12z..very pleasant in the sunshine.

Edited February 26, 2017 by Frosty.

[snowray]

21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z shows snow around later tomorrow, especially nw england, wales, ireland..even southwest england! Overnight it turns frosty with icy patches.

I think that there might be a few surprises for a lucky few on Monday night and into Tuesday, could have some settling snow particularly on higher ground. Always remember the Birmingham snow in -3c uppers and the late October snowfall in the home counties only a few years ago.

 

I love surprise snowfall its the best.

[snowray]

I'm feeling a bit more positive this evening for some March snowfall, ECM looking a lot better there.

 

Edited February 26, 2017 by snowray
wrong chart