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Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Wouldn't be surprised to see some snowfall around, especially on the hills, with charts like this being shown. Nothing bone chilling and more wet than white, but with some night time cooling and evaporative cooling, in any heavy bouts of ppn I certainly would not rule out snow.

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Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean is unsettled, unsettled and more unsettled..plenty to talk about:D:gathering:

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

I have noticed that a fair few ensembles show another potentially damaging storm any where between Southern Scotland and Northern France at 102 hrs which is worth watching. Sorry can't post links at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
4 hours ago, Timmytour said:

the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late November
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early December
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards mid December
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late December
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early January
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards mid January
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late January
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early February
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards mid February
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late February
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early March
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards mid March
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late March
the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early April

Frosty.....I'm nearly ready to call "house" on the potential of this winter.....   :)

 

Let's just hope this is the last of the mostly mild and practically snowless current cluster of Winters. Not that I'm banking on it, but being as this is now the 4th in succession, surely the next cold one can't be too far off. Anyway lets for now hope for a more seasonal Spring, Summer and Autumn and wait for the pondering of what Winter 2017/18 will be like later in the year.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
1 hour ago, knocker said:

Conveyor belt

gfs_z500a_natl_35.thumb.png.ce44e0d2bb2755c2a4337f6cd58d4b76.pnggfs_uv250_natl_35.thumb.png.d8e580317404fd03002dc9421d3717e7.png

If it was 500 miles further south.....?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Unsettled Ecm 12z with the atlantic in control, temps varying between mild, average and a little below, the coolest temps across scotland.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Unsettled Ecm 12z with the atlantic in control, temps varying between mild, average and a little below, the coolest temps across scotland.

Pretty horrible charts for anyone looking for anything settled in all honesty- I really can't recall such an Atlantic dominated outlook in late February. Not sure where the energy is coming from for all these deep depressions.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Pretty horrible charts for anyone looking for anything settled in all honesty- I really can't recall such an Atlantic dominated outlook in late February. Not sure where the energy is coming from for all these deep depressions.

Yes it looks like a prolonged unsettled spell, the Ecm run wasn't a surprise considering how unsettled the GEFS 12z mean looks for the next few weeks but I haven't given up yet on at least one cold snowy spell sometime in March.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Unsettled and westerly indeed and the hints of perhaps something cold in early March have become muted in recent outputs.

Just shallow height rises showing now around the Greenland area in the next week-ECM mirrors the current runs

ECE1-144.GIF?24-0

leaving us at the mercy of the Atlantic and Winter north of 60N.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Pretty horrible charts for anyone looking for anything settled in all honesty- I really can't recall such an Atlantic dominated outlook in late February. Not sure where the energy is coming from for all these deep depressions.

Nothing unusual tbh. With the Arctic at its coldest, early March is often Atlantic dominated. Things can change very quickly though and I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one anticyclonic spell before the month is out.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

If it was 500 miles further south.....?

no thankyou! prefer my rain warm

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2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Pretty horrible charts for anyone looking for anything settled in all honesty- I really can't recall such an Atlantic dominated outlook in late February. Not sure where the energy is coming from for all these deep depressions.

Driest Winter that I can remember. Atlantic was bound to find her legs again ha

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Nothing unusual tbh. With the Arctic at its coldest, early March is often Atlantic dominated. Things can change very quickly though and I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one anticyclonic spell before the month is out.

Can you name some other February storms of the past similar to Doris? I'm really struggling to think of one.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Can you name some other February storms of the past similar to Doris? I'm really struggling to think of one.

Xynthia (Sundays low) Feb 28th 2010

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Nothing unusual tbh. With the Arctic at its coldest, early March is often Atlantic dominated. Things can change very quickly though and I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one anticyclonic spell before the month is out.

Is there any evidence to back this up? 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The anomalies have been nothing if not consistent over the last few days and this continues with the theme they have been running tonight.

High pressure over the Aleutians, intense Canadian vortex with the negatively tilted trough into the Atlantic and the cut odd upper high cell Greenland/ Iceland area.

There is a strong jet running out of the southern states running south of the trough driving systems east but in the strong westerlies which may stall somewhat as they near the UK and track  more NE but still an unsettled outlook with temps varying around the average.

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In the ext period the Aleutian high weakens and drifts west; the vortex likewise drifts north and a zonal westerly flow remains over the Atlantic with still some ridging in the Greenland/Iceland area. Ergo still a westerly with the same caveats as before just west of the UK Temps possible trending a little below average for this period.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 18z shows at least some snow in the forecast next week, especially further north and on hills with some frosty nights too..a wintry flavour to the end of winter and start of the meteorological spring.:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

This run could be a stonker if it aligns correctly, a right belting similar to 8th Dec 1990 could occur.

gfsnh-0-240_clo4.png

 

Didn't turn out quite as I had planned but still a right old tonking at the end though.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Wintry Gfs 18z low res with snow for many!..don't give up it could still be a very interesting March for coldies!

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
34 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Wintry Gfs 18z low res with snow for many!..don't give up it could still be a very interesting March for coldies!

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I'm just about keeping faith frosty , it's been a hard slog this year because of the promise that was showed late autumn and the beginning of winter . Keep up the good work mate and if it don't snow thets chase that first 20c spell . Off to Aus for a family holiday soon so I hope to get my heat blast for the year .

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This morning the GEFs continues the evolution previously indicated  The Aleutian ridge retrogressing and the vortex moving NW with associated Aleutian trough. Still a trough influenced zonal Atlantic with high pressure Greenland/ Iceland. Ergo a strong jet running east out of the southern states so a tendency for the unsettled weather to continue but things are slightly more complicated because the HP to the NW and a Scandinavian trough to the NE come into play with a fairly slack pressure area with perhaps a little NW/N drift.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_53.thumb.png.4c6eb6082f3e669436e5dd3a7f9c9790.png

Back at the ranch. Once the wet and windy weekend is out of the way the beginning of next week sees the expected amplification with the ridging mid Atlantic and the upper trough sliding SE bringing a large complex area of low pressure over the UK.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_14.thumb.png.4254d8089317dcdba7c0df02d5796e0a.png

This basically sets the scene for the pattern for the next week with high pressure over Greenland/Iceland and the Atlantic dominated by a series of troughs and a strong jet the unsettled scenario will continue with periods of wind and rain interspersed by drier interludes. Temps average

gfs_z500a_natl_37.thumb.png.991a1678b6631de93ea3d816a9ee3feb.pnggfs_uv250_natl_37.thumb.png.edc9244f1cc371e52e07c742c77d4be3.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Although varying in detail as the run progresses the ecm is also tending unsettled with temps around average and ends the run with a ridge over the UK and fronts just  to the west of Ireland

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Edited by knocker
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