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Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

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Just for examples.. The GEM keeps the block to our East at 240hr

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.bcd7d19d66227ea725ed84205c79555d.png

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2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Just for examples.. The GEM keeps the block to our East at 240hr

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.bcd7d19d66227ea725ed84205c79555d.png

Interesting, heaven forbid we put any certainty in 240h on GEM but based on the pattern of underestimated block resilience and overestimated atlantic power then that may very well be a good call by the GEM!

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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Interesting, heaven forbid we put any certainty in 240h on GEM but based on the pattern of underestimated block resilience and overestimated atlantic power then that may very well be a good call by the GEM!

People react too quick, Seasonality.. and we all know that's the case but they still whinge.

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wrong charts

 

IMG_0452.GIF

Edited by weirpig

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So from the lastest models the outlook is cold or very cold until Monday then perhaps less cold / milder then a cold reload from the north the following weekend 

Edited by shane303
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Showers heading inland over England a little more sleety the further south you go according to the euro 4  to be honest all abit meh 

IMG_0453.GIF

IMG_0454.GIF

Edited by weirpig

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I have a feeling that we may well be seeing a few more hints of cold from the north in 10 days time.

The ensembles toyed with them a day or so ago before dropping the theme but I've got a feeling the trend will be strengthened in the next few days giving us interest after this weekends cold. 

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With the ecm renowned for its override of amplification' id be keen for this evenings 12z suite to sharpen of evaluating' a pump..

At or around 144-168...

Wedging at/around Greenland! 

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Still think the models are re aligning to the slower MJO forcing into phase 8, interesting all sniffing height rises into next weekend with continued wave1 breaking.....Interesting next few days to see where the block goes....

image.png

Edited by Scandyhigh
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5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

ECM shortens the cold spell further. By Sunday -4 uppers and climbing. 

Still potent Friday/Saturday 

Yep two day event epic beastly.

Surely has to be a warm outliner for if its not that is rather disappointing state of affairs.

ECM0-96 (1).gif

ECM0-120.gif

Edited by booferking

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With this chart for Sat on the ECM you would think the precipitation band would be better south of the Midlands, I have a feeling the South may do better than the North - especially away from coasts. Prob still only a cm maybe 2, but heh I'd be happy with that after the last 3 years

IMG_4230.PNG

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ECM the block is stronger and further west than the other models. Just an observation at this stage.

ECM1-120.gif

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4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

ECM the block is stronger and further west than the other models. Just an observation at this stage.

ECM1-120.gif

Thats a rather sad and lonely looking low over the Azores lol. :D

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7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

ECM the block is stronger and further west than the other models. Just an observation at this stage.

ECM1-120.gif

If you are comparing the 12z +120h to the 00z +144h then remember the time stamps are different by 12 hours. Not as easy to compare like the GFS is.

Edited by PerfectStorm

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The ECM looks better than the GFS at 144

IMG_7569.PNG

IMG_7570.PNG

Edited by Weathizard

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12 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yep two day event epic beastly.

Surely has to be a warm outliner for if its not that is rather disappointing state of affairs.

ECM0-96 (1).gif

ECM0-120.gif

i remember a few days back the ECM got a pasteing for what some people thought was a outlier well it looks as if it was spot on once again give credit when its dew the only way for a prolonged cold spell in this new era is for a greenie which is one in every ten years if we get lucky 

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5 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

If you are comparing the 12z +120h to the 00z +144h then remember the time stamps are different by 12 hours.

Not if you click on 'Live active compare'

Lets you compare all the models and the same time frame.

Edited by Dancerwithwings

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4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

If you are comparing the 12z +120h to the 00z +144h then remember the time stamps are different by 12 hours. Not as easy to compare like the GFS is.

No was comparing to GFS and UKMO current 12z

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1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Not if you click on 'Live active compare'

Lets you compare all the models and the same time frame.

Ah, now I didn't know that existed. Cheers Seasonality! :D

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It would appear to my very untrained eye that there are tentative signs of the high pressure holding further North on this evening's runs compared to this time yesterday?

Still looks chilly to me for much of next week before renewed tentative signs of height rises to our North West?

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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The Atlantic looks weak at 168hr..

Edited by D.V.R

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