Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[Nick F]

Possibility we may see more influence from the Azores high ridging NE next week, as the flow buckles in response to deep cold vortex digging S and E across eastern N America - bringing a return to winter across eastern U.S. from the weekend. That's what the 06z GFS op and 00z GEFS 5-10 day z500 mean points at, though 00z EC suggests Azores ridge visit more brief and confined to the south early next week, with unsettled conditions for the north. Certainly nothing particularly cold or wintry looking away from northern Scotland apart from the usual EC tease towards the end of the high res run.

Edited March 8, 2017 by Nick F

[mb018538]

All looking a bit average this morning - probably why there's hardly any interest! The models are all still showing variations on a theme, but the positions will determine whether its mild or cooler. The 6z GFS turns into a storm fest, probably best to ignore that one for now.

[knocker]

38 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

All looking a bit average this morning - probably why there's hardly any interest! The models are all still showing variations on a theme, but the positions will determine whether its mild or cooler. The 6z GFS turns into a storm fest, probably best to ignore that one for now.

Or that could well be viewed another way. Why bother to make the effort to post when people are obviously not interested?

[Summer Sun]

The chances of anything overly cold this month have all but gone now overall temps are likely to be around or a tad above the seasonal average

[Frosty.]

21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The chances of anything overly cold this month have all but gone now overall temps are likely to be around or a tad above the seasonal average

Yes it's looking good if you don't like cold and snow.

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Or that could well be viewed another way. Why bother to make the effort to post when people are obviously not interested?

I'm always interested in the weather knocker!  It's just that bang average middle of the road weather doesn't stir things up on here most of the time. I'll still add my thoughts as and when, if people are interested then great....if not, then we shall await the next serious cold/warm/stormy outlook to get more people talking.

[knocker]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

I'm always interested in the weather knocker!  It's just that bang average middle of the road weather doesn't stir things up on here most of the time. I'll still add my thoughts as and when, if people are interested then great....if not, then we shall await the next serious cold/warm/stormy outlook to get more people talking.

Just to clarify mb it was meant as general observation not aimed at you in particular. I would take issue with "bang average middle of the road weather" as there is always something of interest going on. One only has to look upstream at the moment and of course there is always the possibility, with the upper trough to our SE of a slack area of low pressure and a continental drift at the back end of the runs.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows high pressure taking over for a while next week and feeling pleasant in any sunshine. Thereafter it's all about the ebb and flow of lower heights to the nw / n and the azores high ..it looks like becoming zonal (changeable / unsettled) the most unsettled further n / nw with the best of any fine spells across the s / se with temps varying between average and mild..nothing cold as such in the pipeline.

Edited March 8, 2017 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

So a week or so ago, we saw another potential shot at heights building into the North Atlantic - once again, looks like Mr Jet was rather underestimated

   

Chances of anything wintry in mid-March falling to very, very low levels now. 

Turning attentions to spring, nothing particularly warm at face value, but with the Azores High ridging in our direction, always the chance of a warmer two or three days as the end of March approaches, especially in Camborne

[phil nw.]

Will be opening a new thread shortly. 

[phil nw.]

Ok locking this one now-new thread here