Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Possibility we may see more influence from the Azores high ridging NE next week, as the flow buckles in response to deep cold vortex digging S and E across eastern N America - bringing a return to winter across eastern U.S. from the weekend. That's what the 06z GFS op and 00z GEFS 5-10 day z500 mean points at, though 00z EC suggests Azores ridge visit more brief and confined to the south early next week, with unsettled conditions for the north. Certainly nothing particularly cold or wintry looking away from northern Scotland apart from the usual EC tease towards the end of the high res run.

5-10day.thumb.png.8c367d8cd036d07d3e3008974227da76.png

Edited by Nick F
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

All looking a bit average this morning - probably why there's hardly any interest! The models are all still showing variations on a theme, but the positions will determine whether its mild or cooler. The 6z GFS turns into a storm fest, probably best to ignore that one for now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
38 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

All looking a bit average this morning - probably why there's hardly any interest! The models are all still showing variations on a theme, but the positions will determine whether its mild or cooler. The 6z GFS turns into a storm fest, probably best to ignore that one for now.

Or that could well be viewed another way. Why bother to make the effort to post when people are obviously not interested?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The chances of anything overly cold this month have all but gone now overall temps are likely to be around or a tad above the seasonal average

gefsens850London0.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The chances of anything overly cold this month have all but gone now overall temps are likely to be around or a tad above the seasonal average

gefsens850London0.png

Yes it's looking good if you don't like cold and snow.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 hour ago, knocker said:

Or that could well be viewed another way. Why bother to make the effort to post when people are obviously not interested?

I'm always interested in the weather knocker! :D It's just that bang average middle of the road weather doesn't stir things up on here most of the time. I'll still add my thoughts as and when, if people are interested then great....if not, then we shall await the next serious cold/warm/stormy outlook to get more people talking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

I'm always interested in the weather knocker! :D It's just that bang average middle of the road weather doesn't stir things up on here most of the time. I'll still add my thoughts as and when, if people are interested then great....if not, then we shall await the next serious cold/warm/stormy outlook to get more people talking.

Just to clarify mb it was meant as general observation not aimed at you in particular. I would take issue with "bang average middle of the road weather" as there is always something of interest going on. One only has to look upstream at the moment and of course there is always the possibility, with the upper trough to our SE of a slack area of low pressure and a continental drift at the back end of the runs. :shok:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean shows high pressure taking over for a while next week and feeling pleasant in any sunshine. Thereafter it's all about the ebb and flow of lower heights to the nw / n and the azores high ..it looks like becoming zonal (changeable / unsettled) the most unsettled further n / nw with the best of any fine spells across the s / se with temps varying between average and mild..nothing cold as such in the pipeline.

21_120_500mb.png

21_144_500mb.png

21_156_2mtmpmax.png

21_180_500mb.png

21_180_2mtmpmax.png

21_216_500mb.png

21_288_500mb.png

21_342_2mtmpmax.png

Edited by Frosty.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

So a week or so ago, we saw another potential shot at heights building into the North Atlantic - once again, looks like Mr Jet was rather underestimated

gens-21-1-240.png   EDM1-240.GIF?08-12

Chances of anything wintry in mid-March falling to very, very low levels now. 

Turning attentions to spring, nothing particularly warm at face value, but with the Azores High ridging in our direction, always the chance of a warmer two or three days as the end of March approaches, especially in Camborne ;)

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Will be opening a new thread shortly. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Ok locking this one now-new thread here

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...