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Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm and gfs are not too bad for the first half of the run but then they start to part ways.and by T174 the difference is quite significant. The gfs is still making more of the Azores ridging. Essentially anything after day five is still up for grabs but the percentage play is probably the occasional foray from the Atlantic, interspersed with some drier intervals, with perhaps the odd Pm flourish thrown in although the likelihood of this is less than it was. But the usual caveat applies and given the continued fluidity and disagreement between the models caution. as always, should prevail. Forgot to mention the temps on the ecm are generally above average apart from one cold blip.

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.a62503d602363e6f0a322dd999367607.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm is sticking to it's guns with the positive anomalies isolated over Greenland;and and thus a zonal Atlantic with the trough to the NE. This gradually becomes some ridging over the UK with trough mid Atlantic, Moving this forward into the ext period the trough moves east over the UK with ridging mid Atlantic thus the upper flow veering NW and temps trending below average. Hopefully things will look up and become a tad more settled and warmer towards the end of March which we all deserve.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.32e713c79cdeb342b7360b5d06444d41.pngecm_eps_z500a_nh_11.thumb.png.99317a3ca69e40bb46504bf6ffc6f1ac.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

For those in the south the cold spell is downgrading with each run from ECM - it's worth point out too that ECM this morning is on the warm side of the mean around the 14th

ECMOPEU00_216_2.thumb.png.4e2d76d1d49044bdbade3c9e80f9946f.png

454675.thumb.png.09fb47c09105fe00f8e29209a2ac2b9e.png

UKMO has in a northwesterly flow at t168 a few showers around but with high pressure close to the west they should be fairly isolated

ukm2.2017031200_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.040458a66e0848c8f85479f538d9c86f.png

On the whole, ECM is backing away from anything too cold now and GFS has also watered down the cold somewhat I said yesterday morning could it be a case of déjà vu with ECM backing away well 24hrs on it seems to be that way. Let's see what the 12z's show tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It's a shame, the models teased us again with arctic winds and snow but I'm fed up now..one trip up the garden path too many. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

For those in the south the cold spell is downgrading with each run from ECM - it's worth point out too that ECM this morning is on the warm side of the mean around the 14th

ECMOPEU00_216_2.thumb.png.4e2d76d1d49044bdbade3c9e80f9946f.png

454675.thumb.png.09fb47c09105fe00f8e29209a2ac2b9e.png

UKMO has in a northwesterly flow at t168 a few showers around but with high pressure close to the west they should be fairly isolated

ukm2.2017031200_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.040458a66e0848c8f85479f538d9c86f.png

On the whole, ECM is backing away from anything too cold now and GFS has also watered down the cold somewhat I said yesterday morning could it be a case of déjà vu with ECM backing away well 24hrs on it seems to be that way. Let's see what the 12z's show tonight.

Spot on Gavin, I got a sinking feeling when I looked at the 00z runs, time has probably come to accept defeat and go with the flow..sorry coldies, I did my best!:)

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

No help from the anomaly charts with all 3 (that I use) giving differing views. So they are best ignored until they settle on a more unanimous view for 2 days or so. Perhaps NOAA will be closer to the overall general upper air flow come 6 days time. Anyway we will know in 4 or 5 days.

links ECMWF-GFS this morning

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

and NOAA last evening

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

NOAA, for what it is worth, are 'usually' nearer the mark than the other two when such differences show. Well that is my view after 5 or 6 years of daily watching their outputs and the subsequent upper air pattern in 5-8 days time.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
55 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's a shame, the models teased us again with arctic winds and snow but I'm fed up now..one trip up the garden path too many. 

Been the story of this "Winter". Any proper cold showing did not make it inside T+240

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

NOAA, for what it is worth, are 'usually' nearer the mark than the other two when such differences show. Well that is my view after 5 or 6 years of daily watching their outputs and the subsequent upper air pattern in 5-8 days time.

John would that still apply using the five day mean ens anomalies instead of the det?

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Posted
  • Location: Buxton, Derbyshire 1148ft asl prev County Down, NI
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Buxton, Derbyshire 1148ft asl prev County Down, NI
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

It's a shame, the models teased us again with arctic winds and snow but I'm fed up now..one trip up the garden path too many. 

It's been like this all winter. I had 1 covering of hail and about 5 frosts. Depressing.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
2 minutes ago, knocker said:

John would that still apply using the five day mean ens anomalies instead of the det?

not sure k but probably, sorry can't be more definite as not something I use all that much, unlike the anomaly charts I go on about.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

not sure k but probably, sorry can't be more definite as not something I use all that much, unlike the anomaly charts I go on about.

Okeydoke. Mind the difference between them is pretty stark as well although they are sort of getting closer. :)

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
54 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Been the story of this "Winter". Any proper cold showing did not make it inside T+240

True, winter only existed inside a low res computer model..same old story.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
53 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Been the story of this "Winter". Any proper cold showing did not make it inside T+240

But look on the bright side some of us kept those potential charts :)

28 12 07 01 -10.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

If the 06z is right next Friday could be quite mild

ukmaxtemp.pngh850t850eu.png

The weekend gradually turns unsettled and cooler 

 

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

If the 06z is right next Friday could be quite mild

ukmaxtemp.pngh850t850eu.png

The weekend gradually turns unsettled and cooler 

 

and on the flip side jma wants some pretty deep cold for the time of the year.

J264-7.thumb.gif.6f7b734dcd7e5e6ecd488bbfdcf7b1a2.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
39 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

If the 06z is right next Friday could be quite mild

ukmaxtemp.pngh850t850eu.png

The weekend gradually turns unsettled and cooler 

 

Yes Gavin it should feel pleasantly spring like later in the week, especially in any sunny spells..as for the JMA, I wouldn't trust it as far as I could throw it!:D 

In fact I don't trust any model which shows FI cold now..only took me 12 years to learn that:crazy:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

I wouldn't trust any of them as far as I could throw them, apart from UKMO maybe to T120.:rofl:

 

06z loving it there with its new easterly and cold rain at D10, no thanks, I am from now officially a warm weather freak, until next October anyway.:D

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-1-240.png

gfs-2-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
30 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes Gavin it should feel pleasantly spring like later in the week, especially in any sunny spells..as for the JMA, I wouldn't trust it as far as I could throw it!:D 

In fact I don't trust any model which shows FI cold now..only took me 12 years to learn that:crazy:

Until next Winter  Frosty :oops:

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Yes but next winter we will most probably fall for the D10 eye candy charts all over again, never learn because it takes all winter to learn the hard lesson that FI winter wonderland charts never verify, and then the rest of the year to forget this lesson, so come November time we come bouncing back like spring lambs to slaughter all over again.:doh:

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM monthlies have finally updated generally slightly milder and wetter than average sums it up

March

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20170301_m1.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170301_m1.png

April

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20170301_m2.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170301_m2.png

May

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20170301_m3.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170301_m3.png

June

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20170301_m4.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170301_m4.png

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM monthlies have finally updated generally slightly milder and wetter than average sums it up

March

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20170301_m1.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170301_m1.png

April

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20170301_m2.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170301_m2.png

May

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20170301_m3.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170301_m3.png

June

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20170301_m4.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170301_m4.png

What a horror show wet wet and more wet.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM monthlies have finally updated generally slightly milder and wetter than average sums it up

March

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20170301_m1.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170301_m1.png

April

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20170301_m2.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170301_m2.png

May

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20170301_m3.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170301_m3.png

June

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20170301_m4.pngSeasonalAnomalies_Rain_20170301_m4.png

Always was a good tool the EC Monthly, however, many times this winter it have been unreliable. This would make up for the drier than average winter though, but not a good start to Spring!

Edited by Dean E
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Mid month cold spell not going away

 

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gfs-0-312.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
17 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Mid month cold spell not going away

 

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gfs-0-312.png

 

It was the 11th now its the following week....

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