Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, Summer 1976 said:

The ECM is quite something if it were to come off from +168. As ever just one run but don't tell coldies 

Well lets just say that with all the inconsistencies that we have seen between models this winter it would make a welcome change if they could agree just for once, and we are actually seeing things develop with this northerly at D7 which certainly makes a welcome changes from D9/10+!

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended (t168)

[Matthew.]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Well lets just say that with all the inconsistencies that we have seen between models this winter it would make a welcome change if they could agree just for once, and we are actually seeing things develop with this northerly at D7 which certainly makes a welcome changes from D9/10+!

The thing is retrogression is'nt out of the question at +216 from ECM. Probably me getting a little ahead of myself but zonal winds are near the 0 mark so a greater chance this happening maybe

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, snowray said:

The big three at +T192. No UKMO obviously.

ECM coming on board but lagging behind the other two somewhat who develop the northerly more quickly. All singing from same hymn sheet though now.

Yes let's hope they are still doing that tomorrow..certainly I'm a bit more positive now for some type of cold outbreak from the NNW / N / NE by the end of next week and into the following week, I found tonight's Ecm 12z quite impressive with a strengthening cold Nly airstream.

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ens shows a northwesterly flow gradually taking hold by next weekend and into the following week we'll most likely see a mix of sunshine and showers these may be wintry at times especially so for higher ground but maybe even to lower levels at times - feeling cooler UK wide though the strengthening sunshine may just take the edge off it slightly if you get some shelter

[johnholmes]

It was interesting this morning in that, on the 500 mb anomaly charts, ECMWF and GFS both showed something along the lines folk are getting excited about from the synoptic models. The NOAA output had nothing to do withthis idea although it did show a hint, no more, last evening in its 8-14 day outlook. Come the output this evening, see below, and NOAA 6-10 goes along the EC-GFS way. I would hold off for another 24 hours, but if all 3, at this time tomorrow show a similar set of charts then the upper air pattern would be some kind of colder flow from about NW. Not that I wish this as I become a wrm fan come March.

Anyway this evening NOAA and below that this morning from ECMWF-GFS

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Remember both sets of charts will update as new charts are issued.

Edited March 3, 2017 by johnholmes
to de highlight the text

[knocker]

Although the upcoming cooler spell starting around the 10/11 has been signposted for a wee while now the anomalies are still a fair from agreement in a number of aspects. The pertinent ones as far as the UK is concerned is the vortex over N.Russia and the Scandinavian trough running south and the trough in the western Atlantic and finally, in particular the orientation and intensity of the Atlantic high pressure. A glance at the anomalies can see how they differ with the treatment all three aspects, so  although a cooler spell with some wintry type weather with temps starting to trend below average is pretty much nailed on, The detail certainly isn't so something for the det runs to sort.

In the ext period still much the same scenario, albeit perhaps the ridging not quite as strong but with the lively trough running a fair way south still the upper winds in the NW so unsettled with temps still trending below average remains the order of the day. The EPS is a little more emphatic with this than the GEFS.

EDIT

I wouldn't have posted if I had realized John had just posted.

Edited March 3, 2017 by knocker

[snowray]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Yes let's hope they are still doing that tomorrow..certainly I'm a bit more positive now for some type of cold outbreak from the NNW / N / NE by the end of next week and into the following week, I found tonight's Ecm 12z quite impressive with a strengthening cold Nly airstream.

Yes I was just thinking that, 18z looking good so far so we could be nicely set up tonight for tomorrows runs and a continuation of this trend.

[snowray]

ohhh dear, wheres our cold air going?

[SMU]

The 18z continues the 'hints' of further model allignment towards heights driving nicely into Iceland - possibly Greenland-

infact in terms of snow its probably the most snowy run all winter- all of course out in FI however at 372 it has about 30cm of snow in 6 hours over suffolk....

Just for old times sake

Alpine UK - the new North pole 

Edited March 3, 2017 by Steve Murr

[feb1991blizzard]

5 hours ago, knocker said:

Why what? I assume unlikely? Because the models are obviously having a fair bit of trouble with the amplification as noted by the continuing chopping and changing on every run. Added to which this evening's scenario out at T180 (which is long way in this context) is very dependent on a precise pressure distribution so that, IMHO, makes it very unlikely to be supported on the next run.

Your right It isn't supported because its an even better run!!, its GFS 3rd March run from 2017 enhanced version 2 and we say

 

HELLO 18th Dec 2010 in mid March 2017 with better uppers and better lapse rates due to surface heating and inland convection generated so no wishbone effect. In short - a right belting.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

A ...W.T.F moment

at 312 hrs

-12 uppers getting down into northern england and plenty of snow with it too

OMFG

LATEST FROM NOAA 8-14 DAYS,ties in doesn't it

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

32 minutes ago, snowray said:

so we could be nicely set up tonight for tomorrows runs and a continuation of this trend

Hoping for more of this trend tomorrow

[Eugene]

Nice to see any warm up very brief now for mid next week before cooling down nicely next friday onwards, looking like we could see some wintry showers and night frost for mid to late March.

GFS 18Z building heights strongly over greenland just like GEM 12Z and a direct arctic northerly, lets hope this trend continues.

[Zakos]

Definitely the snowiest GFS run of the season Steve

 .          

Some runs are showing the cold shot to be quite potent... If we do see a direct hit from the N/NE in mid March, would it be plausible to see settling snow that lasts throughout the day ? 

Edited March 3, 2017 by Zakos

[Frosty.]

Actually, I'm hoping for more of this trend from the Gfs 18z..holy cow

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Hoping for more of this trend tomorrow

Indeedy. And look at all that snow by the end of the run.

[Rollo]

,Oh dear Steve Murr  out of early hibernation and very snowy possibilities,showing their face in FI that I really want to see the daffodils smashed my a few temporary inches of wet snow. Let's leave it to November 2017 to make up for this very  very disappointing winter.

[knocker]

27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Your right It isn't supported because its an even better run!!, its GFS 3rd March run from 2017 enhanced version 2 and we say

 

HELLO 18th Dec 2010 in mid March 2017 with better uppers and better lapse rates due to surface heating and inland convection generated so no wishbone effect. In short - a right belting.

 

Before you deliberately misrepresent what I said it mght be an idea to check your facts before going off on one . This is the chart and evolution at that time I said  wouldn't be repeated.

And it's not anywhere near being repeated this evening as the trough doesn't engage the very cold air to the NE And from there the evolution is entirely different. Rather proves the point I was attempting to make. It's all rather a waste of time really.

Edited March 3, 2017 by knocker

[Allseasons-Si]

I know Frosty,it looks good doesn't it

can we savure this winter that we have all been waiting for,the gfs has been hinting of this colder spell for a few days now,can we get a direct hit for a change

it was nice seeing the 18z run with the high retrogressing to greenland in the latter stages(fl)

watching the ens come out to see if there is suport,the 12s ens wasn't bad

the control going for it at 180

Edit:the control is going the same way later in fl with the high retrogressing into greenland with a northery ready to pounce

and at 288 here she comes

and a few cherry pickers at 240 hrs from the ens

and the mean at 240

that's pretty good going i would say

 

Edited March 3, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

Why am i not suprised at the charts that are churning out by the gfs at the moment for a mid month cold spell,i had not checked the 10 hpa strat temps in a while cos i thought that it would be of no consequence,there is another uptick there and the zonal wind drops off too(blue area bottom right)

and the zonal wind and temperature e-p fluxes

not as much of a warming as the begining of feb(top right) on the left chart but the zonal wind is forecast to be much less than in the begining of feb(top right)on the right chart

Edited March 4, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Nick L]

Tit-for-tat posts are not welcome here thank you.

[Pixel]

so.. pardon me for interrupting..

as a weather enthusiast, noting warming in the stratosphere some 10-14 days ago + coming to Netweather and seeing this:

does this not mean anything other than enthusiasm for a long lost winter?

 

 

 

 

Edited March 4, 2017 by Pixel

[knocker]

A quick look at the mean GEFS anomaly this morning is still indicating the amplification getting underway in earnest around the 11th and being around for four or five days before subsiding and making way for some more prosaic weather

Meanwhile the low currently over Ireland tracks NW to Iceland allowing another couple of shallow lows to run east and south east before some more brief ridging.before the fronts associated with another low that has tracked NE to Iceland rapidly traverse the country by Wednesday morning.

From here once again some brief ridging ( and some very respectable temps) before it starts to get a bit complicated. The next depression tracks NE but the amplification starts with the Azores surging north and  the low turns right and and tracks SE into the North Sea introducing some strong winds over the country which veer northerly, This is  accompanied by some wet weather over Scotland with snow on the hills although at this stage the temps are still around average.

From here the HP briefly ridges NE and the low swings SW across the south to be west of Cornwall by the 13th. Like I said, complicated and the next five day period best left at the moment.

I see down the line the vortex at the 100mb level is west of Norway. Now that wouldn't be a good idea lower down in the Trop.

Edited March 4, 2017 by knocker

[Weather-history]

The difference between ECM and GFS op runs at 240 is ridiculous, where you got oranges and 1035mb high pressure mid/North Atlantic with GFS, ECM at the same time has 950mb and deep purples.