Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[Summer Sun]

06z brings in an easterly next Sunday no cold air to tap into though so cold rain for many

[mb018538]

One look at these charts for around the same time shows how much the models are struggling to pin anything down. One has an intense low to the NE and a more organised vortex, the other has the vortex in pieces with a deep med low. Looks like we're going to have plenty of swings in upcoming runs.

[Summer Sun]

General idea from the ens is as you were with it turning cooler from next weekend

[Frosty.]

41 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

General idea from the ens is as you were with it turning cooler from next weekend

Turning cooler is the right description, there doesn't look to be anything sinister lurking in the woodshed at the moment!

And before that, turning mild next week.

Edited March 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

As I said before, based on this there doesn't appear to be anything sinister lurking in the outlook as far as deep cold goes. It does become cooler from the north from the end of next week but temps still look close to average for most of the next few weeks according to the GEFS 6z mean. I would love a potent Arctic blast as I feel cheated out of one during the lame winter just gone so I'm not giving up on it just yet.

Edited March 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

12z GFS brings the coldest 850's back for later next week

We could certainly have a distinct chill in the air later next week with a gusty wind coming down from the north and some snow especially but not exclusively to higher ground

[snowray]

I love you too GEM!

[snowray]

Can we get the ECM on board later on I wonder with this sort of general pattern? Certainly a cold enough blast there.

 

[knocker]

A good example this evening on why it's dodgy to look to far ahead on individual runs. Just a slight variation on the orientation and intensity of the high pressure this evening from the 06  allows the upper low to phase with the cold trough to the NE and draw in some much colder air. Very unlikely that this scenario would play out on the next run

Edited March 3, 2017 by knocker

[tvh3382]

Why

[snowray]

Well at least the models are offering some sort of interest, be it a cold blast with some snow or a southerly plume and close to 20c temps, maybe bit of both.

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, tvh3382 said:

Why

Why what? I assume unlikely? Because the models are obviously having a fair bit of trouble with the amplification as noted by the continuing chopping and changing on every run. Added to which this evening's scenario out at T180 (which is long way in this context) is very dependent on a precise pressure distribution so that, IMHO, makes it very unlikely to be supported on the next run.

Edited March 3, 2017 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

GEM gives winter one last go

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows a pleasantly mild few days later next week across southern uk with temps into the low teens celsius, close to 60F in favoured spots so feeling warm in any sunshine.

[Summer Sun]

As you were with the ens temperatures falling from next Saturday and probably staying chiller than normal for around a week - before that a few short-lived milder days especially for the south

Edited March 3, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The odds favour some type of Northerly flow at the end of next week into week 2 but it's still unclear whether it will be a glancing blow to the east or a full on blast but the GEFS 12z mean certainly becomes more meridional for a while.

Edited March 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[comet]

A cold snap (spell) is definitely gaining momentum now but as to how cold and how wintry is still very much up for grabs. This should become a lot clearer I would of thought by the start of the new working week.

[snowray]

Yes and 10/10 to GFS and GEM for sticking to their guns, ECM coming on board now.

Edited March 3, 2017 by snowray

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows the uk in a cold Northerly airstream by the end of next week..ends wintry with snow showers and frosty nights.

Edited March 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

In the run up to the cold snap/spell we see some milder air for the south won't be totally settled though so any milder air may be tampered down a bit by the breeze/wind

As for the weekend and beyond it's a case of gradually turning colder as the northerly airstream digs in

[Chris.]

Certainly interesting.  And im pleased its remaining 'cold' for most of the uk.   My main interest is scottish highlands for next weekend when we will be away skiing, so hoping for the snow to hang around through the next week and there be little wind at the weekend.   Only thing that concerns me at the minute is the high that just glances the top of the UK, so hopefully it doesnt bring any warm temps or rain above 600m.

[Matthew.]

The ECM is quite something if it were to come off from +168. As ever just one run but don't tell coldies 

[Summer Sun]

JMA's take on things next Saturday....washout springs to mind

[Frosty.]

Gfs / Ecm & Gem 12z all support an Arctic plunge in just over a weeks time, ergo the odds appear to be in coldies favour and portends a late taste of winter with some snow and widespread frosts in the not too distant future.

Edited March 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[snowray]

The big three at +T192. No UKMO obviously.

ECM coming on board but lagging behind the other two somewhat who develop the northerly more quickly. All singing from same hymn sheet though now.