Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Summer 1976 said:

Mean Air Pressure looks like returning to nearer normal values in the next week so it may turn a little dryer

That sounds fair enough with  pressure rising across the south next week.

Edited March 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[Bristawl Si]

17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That's because the models are generally showing mild then cold

Only if you follow each run Frosty - l learned years ago not to. 

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Only if you follow each run Frosty - l learned years ago not to. 

I'm just going by the general trend which is for it to become milder and drier next week away from northern uk and especially the south for a time and then colder from the nw / n towards the end of next week..that appears to be the way things are currently heading.

Edited March 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[KTtom]

GFS ensembles paint a typical March picture with sudden switches from warm to cold...you can be in t- shirt one day and shoveling snow the Next! Certainly a trend to a cold blast after next week's warmup

Edited March 2, 2017 by KTtom
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[MR EXTREMES]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh no. Not again!

More chance of a visit from the Pope then any of this happening.

But could recent strat events actually kick down a already weakened/weakening vortex.

I'd say fi is around 144hrs maybe a little less.

[Bristawl Si]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm just going by the general trend which is for it to become milder and drier next week away from northern uk and especially the south for a time and then colder from the nw / n towards the end of next week..that appears to be the way things are currently heading.

I'm interested in the temps forecast to develop in the South Western Med and Canaries in a few days time.

23c for The Algarve by 6th/7th March - that is warm for early March down there. Hopefully it indicates a build up of early Spring warmth, which could mean a push North into mid-late March.

I reck the earlier thoughts of a cold/cool Spring for N Europe (incl UK) could be completely scuppered....and we quickly morph into a warm mid-Spring. One to keep an eye on imo.

[Summer Sun]

Cold air later next week could last for quite some time according to the beeb maybe GFS is onto something the ens trends below average for quite a while from next weekend

 

Edited March 2, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Cold air later next week could last for quite some time according to the beeb maybe GFS is onto something the ens trends below average for quite a while from next weekend

 

Something like this maybe

[Summer Sun]

For the south at least we should manage a few decent days next week according to the ECM ens

Into next weekend and we pick up a northwesterly flow so cooler but with some sunshine

[knocker]

The anomalies in the 5-10 range are pretty much on the same page this eveniing.

A dumbbell vortex canada/N.Russia with associated troughs North America and the western Atlantic. A retention of some positive anomalies in the Greenland area whilst high pressure pushes north in the vicinity of the UK and the important trough to the east runs from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean, This portends an upper flow in the westerly quadrant, perhaps WNW, with the HP influencing the south so systems traveling east are more likely to impact the north, ergo the proverbial N/S split with temps a little above average.

Although there isn't complete agreement in the latter period the trend is for the the pattern to change somewhat with the ridge building in mid Atlantic and the trough taking closer order in the east. The key to the detail of this is the precise intensity and orientation of the two main players as the upper flow will veer NW and systems will track south east as they traverse the UK/North Sea. The track is very dependent on the key and thus the severity, or not, of wintry interludes that may impact parts of the UK. The temps trending below average for this period.

Edited March 2, 2017 by knocker

[damianslaw]

Trend is a sea-saw pattern, immediate outlook cyclonic with low pressure meandering across the country, early next week, ridge development from the SW nosing into the UK pulling in milder settled conditions for a time, indeed it would feel quite springlike in the south for a time, but then a change with the ridge building to our west heading north and a deep trough sinking through scandi to our east, hence a colder outlook with a NW feed, whether this manifests into a longer pronounced colder spell is uncertain, but there are signs mid March could be cold.

 

[Sparkiee storm]

The BBC extended forecast did say into next weekend its turning colder, so there is a slim chance it may happen as some of the models are pointing to a similar pattern as some other posters have pointed out.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Gfs 18z shows a marked change to much milder more benign conditions for the second half of next week across southern uk following the current rather cool cyclonic spell with nice looking charts later next week as high pressure builds in close to the south with Tm air feeding around the top of the high and across the south of the uk, in any sunshine it would feel warm..very spring like for a time.

Edited March 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 hours ago, Snipper said:

So what is good about that?  Many now want to see the Spring burst as it is trying to now. 

Some snow and cold weather is a real nuisance. Many want to grow stuff. To have a dump of wet snow and cold leaves me with complete indifference. . 

If it had been a month or two earlier I would have been happy. 

Life moves on. 

Snow is snow whatever the time of year...I'll take whatever I can get whenever I can get it given the past few years...

The 18z GFS looks to try to promote Greenland heights but heights remain too stubborn to our S

[Frosty.]

Next weeks story seems to be how mild it will get in the south, maybe 17 / 18c is possible.BBQ anyone?.

Edited March 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[Bristawl Si]

13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Next weeks story seems to be how mild it will get in the south, maybe 17 / 18c is possible.BBQ anyone?.

Yes...an early burst of warm temps, pumped up from the Canaries and S Iberia. Once warmer temps take hold in this vicinity at this time of the year i think it heralds a warmer Spring for us as well. I'm defo going against the consensus for the UK Spring.

[snowray]

I'm happy to see some mild weather in March if it includes sunshine, we are lucky around this way in that we do rather well on the whole in getting the best of any spring like weather thats going. But if there is a blast of cold and snow, although I would prefer to see this turn up before mid march, it is always very welcome, it can still snow in the SE and therefore anywhere in the UK at lot later than March of course. April can in fact be very good out to about the 3rd week.

 

Just for a change, Birmingham ensembles, not looking very mild to me.

Edited March 3, 2017 by snowray

[knocker]

Firstly an observation. Both the GEFS this morning and the EC46 update of last night have the period of max amplification,i.e. fairly strong ridging to our west and the trough dipping south to our east in the period around the 11th -16th. Thus one can tentatively identify this as the period which will have the upper flow veering NW with a much higher chance of the UK copping some quite wintry Pm shots as systems traverse south east.

Meanwhile back at the farm the complex shallow area of low pressure will hang around the UK over the weekend before the upper trough moves away south east and the Azores ridges in on Tuesday. The HP battles to hang on in there but weak Atlantic systems do manage to beat it down Wednesday and Thursday, albeit mainly effecting the north. Notably it is relatively warm with temps around 14C on Thursday, possibly nudging a little higher.

Friday sees the transition. Amplification occurs with strong ridging in mid Atlantic and the upper trough that has traveled east to be west of Norway tracks sharply south east and thus with the surface low tracking down into Poland the UK comes under a cooler northerly regime with wintry showers,

This regime then persists for a while, albeit temps are never that far from aerage, with HP to the west and low to the east but this best left at the moment.

Edited March 3, 2017 by knocker

[Matthew.]

At +120 the ECM has the Azores high over southern Europe extending its influence north bringing some very mild Sw air. By +168 the trough from the Atlantic moves east and we start to see the workings of amplification into the mid Atlantic by +192. An exciting week ahead it would seem

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z has toned down the mildness later next week and the cold shot that follows is more of a glancing blow, very brief, just a cool NWly for many with high pressure nudging in from the Atlantic by day 10.

[Scandinavian High.]

Spring is put on hold by looking at this cold is the  theme here. The meto update last night  indicating cold could last for a long time.

[Frosty.]

34 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Spring is put on hold by looking at this cold is the  theme here. The meto update last night  indicating cold could last for a long time.

The Ecm 12z last night and the 00z this morning don't even look enthusiastic  about a cold snap, more like a cool snap apart from the far NE.

Edited March 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[knocker]

An overview of the ext EPS mean anomalies this morning has the the ridge to the west and the trough to the east. So essentially during the five day period the upper flow will slowly back from the NW/NNW to westerly and the temps will trend down to be below average. That's the theory but as previously mentioned the orientation and intensity of the main players is crucial when it comes to sorting the detail

Fear not towards the end of March Spring will arrive in earnest

Edited March 3, 2017 by knocker

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

An overview of the ext EPS mean anomalies this morning has the the ridge to the west and the and the trough to the east. So essentially during the five day period the upper flow will slowly back from the NW/NNW to westerly and the temps will trend down to be below average. That's the theory but as previously mentioned the orientation and intensity of the main players is crucial when it comes to sorting the detail

Fear not towards the end of March Spring will arrive in earnest

I can only hope knocker! I'm starting to think we're just going to end up with cool 5-7c days with the cold air slipping around this high, at least for a while.

Hopefully it can edge a bit further east and get some of the milder air in, along with some sun and quiet weather. 
This is the time of year where we should be hitting double figures by day, not scraping around in the mid single digit maximums!

[Summer Sun]

Not as cold on the 06z so far for later next week

06z                                                               00z

Edited March 3, 2017 by Summer Sun