Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z gives the uk a taste of spring later next week before plunging back into winter with a potent blast from the Arctic with snow for many and widespread sharp frosts.

Edited March 1, 2017 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

....... And right on cue, as if by magic -  Hello Dec 1990!!

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

....... And right on cue, as if by magic -  Hello Dec 1990!!

 

Control and ENS at the same time

The control does manage a northerly but not till the very end

[Scandinavian High.]

I have came back from my  hibernation  early.  Spring  is not on way winter is going to  be fighting back with snow to come maybe we will see a white Easter I have seen a dumping of snow in April and I'm in south east London..

Edited March 1, 2017 by abbie123

[geordiekev]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z gives the uk a taste of spring later next week before plunging back into winter with a potent blast from the Arctic with snow for many and widespread sharp frosts.

I expect this one last hurrah might actually come off as I'm going to Prague on 13th for birthday/snow fix.  Expect it will be 20c plus over there and 20 CM deep at home 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

I expect this one last hurrah might actually come off as I'm going to Prague on 13th for birthday/snow fix.  Expect it will be 20c plus over there and 20 CM deep at home 

Hope you have a great time whatever the weather :- )

I've been checking the GEFS regularly and there could be something wintry brewing around mid march and even further ahead..this could be a productive month for the many snow starved members / guests of Netweather.

[Bristawl Si]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

....... And right on cue, as if by magic -  Hello Dec 1990!!

Only 13 days to go

It's bound to happen 

[cheshire snow]

4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Only 13 days to go

It's bound to happen 

Indeed and just to add the ECM ends with a potent Northerly with-10 uppers over Scotland 

C.S

[Summer Sun]

From spring to winter in a matter of days

Edited March 1, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z remains generally unsettled until early next week with temps around average, a bit milder in the south on friday but quite a wet day for most of England and Wales on Friday, much brighter further north with a few showers then cooler air returning with further wet weather at times during the weekend into the start of the new week but then high pressure builds in from the southwest into the south of the uk during next week and becoming more settled and much milder, especially in the south of england for a time but remaining unsettled across the n / w.

T+240 screams wintry potential!

 

Edited March 1, 2017 by Frosty.

[Dennis]

there's some more signs now of a North-flow after 10th this month

Edited March 1, 2017 by Dennis

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ens shows milder southwesterly winds starting to move in towards mid next week after a chilly start

We end with a westerly then northwesterly flow

All in all nothing unusual for early spring

Edited March 1, 2017 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

The ext EPS this evening is still along the lines previously indicated. Ridging in the Atlantic and a trough to the east so the precise alignment of these will tend to dictate the detail but essentially we are looking at a north west upper flow with tendency towards a N/S split and it portends some transient wintry interludes as systems track south east into Europe. The temps in general below average and perhaps a fair bit below on occasion.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All,, The old Saying " March will come in like a lion and out like a lamb" will be very familiar in the following days....Very turbulent weather in the days ahead Just watch this space.....

[Chris.]

18z run looks a lot different to the 12z from around 180hrs.   Azores much further west allowing the cold to drop down through Europe to the East.

[Eugene]

Just now, carsey said:

18z run looks a lot different to the 12z from around 180hrs.   Azores much further west allowing the cold to drop down through Europe to the East.

 

No surprise really as GFS 12Z OP was a big warm outlier on the GFS 12Z ensembles for later next week.

[Frosty.]

Here comes the Arctic on the Gfs 18z..hope this trend continues!

Reload..what a stonker!

Edited March 1, 2017 by Frosty.

[Mark wheeler]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Here comes the Arctic on the Gfs 18z..hope this trend continues!

The last chance saloon Frosty , we need this to come off . If not roll on summer . Thanks to a trip to Manchester yesterday I have seen more snow this year than  the previous  3 combined . Love that you post all year so look forward to plume watch soon, but not just quite yet eh.

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Love that you post all year so look forward to plume watch soon, but not just quite yet eh.

Cheers, yes what an 18z that turned into..arctic reloads, couldn't ask for more than that in mid March!

And yes I'm looking forward to hopefully a plume filled summer :- )

Edited March 1, 2017 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

8 hours ago, johnholmes said:

I'm not at all clear how that NOAA chart suggests a northerly?

By "open to the suggestion" I mean that it's within the realms of possibility based on the given chart (at the more extreme end but still possible)??

[Bristawl Si]

Those snow precipitation charts have been as useful as a chocolate fireguard.

[Nick F]

So, the 18z GFS singing from the same hymn sheet as EC day 10. Ties in with the z500 ENS mean from both models shifting the mean upper trough from the west of the UK to the east of the UK by day 10. Now will it still be there in the morning, won't hold my breath ... but has support from London EPS for turning colder toward mid-month

Edited March 1, 2017 by Nick F

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

So, the 18z GFS singing from the same hymn sheet as EC day 10. Ties in with the z500 ENS mean from both models shifting the mean upper trough from the west of the UK to the east of the UK by day 10. Now will it still be there in the morning, won't hold my breath ... but has support from London EPS for turning colder toward mid-month

Looks like we *MAY* be about to see winter turn up as we approach mid March...about time too! Tentative suggestions at present.

[knocker]

[A Frayed Knot]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

And ? Explain for us Newbies what this show ' why a post with a dubious face and a Chart not explaining at all what it means ... Confuses me and many others in here . all i see is temprature dropping ? am i right

Edited March 2, 2017 by A Frayed Knot
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