Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[Frosty.]

There are a few GEFS 6z perturbations similar to the 6z operational. As I said before, there must be other models (seasonal / monthly) showing more support for cold and snow in the mid / longer range or the pros wouldn't keep mentioning it every day..anyway, I haven't given up on a proper snow fix..even late April has been known to produce a few feet of snow..1981!

Edited February 27, 2017 by Frosty.

[Gael_Force]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

I would but they will still show in the quoted post below

They are updated now and positive anomalies for temps in the first three weeks. The last week is not something I personally want to see but it would be Sod's law! 

Just have to hope it is as wrong as it was in the two charts you posted earlier.

[Summer Sun]

The ECM weeklies have now updated properly a bit of a mixed back

Week 2 a touch above average but wetter

Week 4 Chiller but drier

 

[knocker]

Quite a good illustration on how quickly systems are moving at the moment with troughs whipping through on the jet, Early next Saturday there is a complex area of low pressure over the UK, with some ridging to the west, which drifts east but the next low that rushes in phases in with it to form another dance of the lows on Sunday. So looking like quite a damp weekend.before the gfs has another bash at invigorating the Azores HP

[Frosty.]

That's more like it! Again mid March range but the Gfs 12z ties in with the pros current thoughts 're this period, mid / late March snowfest is not out of the question. 

Edited February 27, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

GEM becomes milder as we move through next week likely to be wet at first before high pressure turns it drier for most

 

 

[knocker]

The GEFS still sticking to its guns as the vortex slips west

 

[Summer Sun]

Slightly milder air moving in from the west early next week

Edited February 27, 2017 by Summer Sun

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks better by Tuesday as well SS, but sigh, settled charts always in FI 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

probably the most likely result, GFS, think ECM could be wrong here

[Summer Sun]

ECM looks pleasant enough at D9

@I remember Atlantic 252 Number one 1 rule never rule out ECM remember the cold snap a few weeks back? ECM was the first to downgrade it and sure enough it was right

Edited February 27, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Chris.]

Plenty of cold between now and 11th march for highland scotland will be good enough for me.   Not liking the sound of milder air or higher temp uppers closing in which could bring rain.

[Frosty.]

Again there is some wintry weather on the GEFS 12z towards mid March which is the timeframe of particular interest going by the met office 're mid to late March having a chance of being cold with snow / ice and widespread frosts..P5 would suit me!

Edited February 27, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

ECM backing the weeklies update earlier for a milder week next week

[knocker]

Yes the ecm is having a bash with the HP as well

 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

looks better by Tuesday as well SS, but sigh, settled charts always in FI 

Most of the GEFS ensembles tonight have that strong Iberian High. On the face of that, I'd tip my mid-range forecast from probably cooler to probably warmer.

[Mucka]

I know there is no cold weather showing up as we head toward Spring but it is interesting the GFS doesn't push the Atlantic past the UK when there is no real blocking to the East.

If this was depths of winter I would be excited about the possibility of a strong Arctic outbreak in 10-14 days time.

[damianslaw]

Quite a fluid set up shown by the models today, with heights strong enough to our north to deflect the jet on a more southerly path, forcing low pressure directly across the UK, bringing bouts of rain and wind, and chance of snow down to quite low levels in the north. Temps around average in the main for most, bit colder in the north at times, but milder in the south at times. Longer term, a signal we may see the atlantic come unstuck somewhat with a strong ridge building through the country, but crucially with heights remaining quite strong to our NW, we could quickly exchange some slightly warmer uppers for much colder uppers with a cut off low feature to our SW and the ridge joining hands with heights to the NW, this would enable a potent arctic outbreak.

I know its not the place to discuss met office long range forecasts, but it remains very bullish in its signal for colder conditions to possibly invade the country especially later in the month with snow mentioned a number of times - must be seeing a signal for significant northern blocking taking hold. Nothing out of the ordinary, indeed chance of northerly and easterly airstreams penetrating the country is far greater from mid March onwards as the PV traditionally weakens and we see the atlantic go into its annual spring slumber.

[Man With Beard]

Ec monthly ... Some stimulating bits from a coldies perspective - first the slightly more reliable D8-D14

Almost a great setup for cold but lack of euro trough might lead to a warmer set-up instead.

And now the rather less reliable: D21-D28 isn't far off being called fiction as we know, but at face value would be the dream cold scenario / nightmare spring spoiler depending on preference, with Euro trough now in place

 

Just saying what I see ... beware getting sucked in anyone ...

[Frosty.]

Wintry end to the Gfs 18z with plenty of power to add..these type of charts are popping up regularly in the run up to mid march..fingers crossed coldies!

Edited February 27, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

There are tentative signs of things quietening down somewhat after the first week of March is through:





The main core of the PV appears to shift away from Canada and back to the north, which in turn slows down the Atlantic conveyor.



This leads to lower rainfall spikes towards the latter end of the ensembles. A wide range of options, with 850s of -10 and +10 forecast on the 12th showing how up in the air and uncertain the situation is at present. Keep those eyes peeled folks.

[knocker]

Yesterday evening there wasn't good agreement between the anomalies in the 6-10 range with the EPS being the odd one out. Upstream wasn't too bad but they differed in the handling of the high cell over Greenland and the Atlantic trough.This morning the gfs is still sticking to it's guns vis the medium term with high pressure pushing N/NE in the eastern Atlantic with a trough pushing south to the eastern Mediterranean to the east.

So what about some detail this morning. Generally unsettled this week with showery outbreaks as the upper trough moves slowly east. This merely paves the way for some very transient amplification at the end of the week with the Azores ridging in mid Atlantic driving the next upper trough south east with the next surface low 978 mb in the western approaches by 00 Saturday.

This low proceeds to to loop around into the North Sea under the auspices of the upper trough which disrupts to a certain extent with the UK once again under a complex area of low pressure before some ridging from the Azores interrupts the cycle, albeit briefly, on Monday before the next blast of energy from the west knocks this aside with a depression tracking into Scotland and associated fronts traversing the UK.

.

From here the Azores makes a more determined effort and certainly keeps the south under it's influence with systems from the west forced north east. So generally speaking periods of rain interspersed by some drier interludes becoming more of a N/S split as the run progresses and temps around average.

 

Edited February 28, 2017 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm is not against the Azores building towards the end of the run but at this stage, although the slow retrogression of  pattern does seem to be progressing, there is no apparent permanence about this  Noted though that the troughs are still disrupting against the high pressure to the east with a trough running down to the Eastern Mediterranean and beyond

Edited February 28, 2017 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended shows something a bit more settled

[mb018538]

38 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended shows something a bit more settled

Thanks for this SS. Useful to see the 168 hour chart, even if we can't see what is going on to the east!