Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Interesting Ecm 12z with a colder first half to the week with wintry showers and night frosts, then the cold air retreats north as complex slow moving trough (s) move across the uk and temps recover for a time but then once it's finally cleared away to the E / NE the cold air (still in situ across the far north) spreads south again as a ridge extends southwards from iceland and at the same time, the azores high ridges NE and they merge at T+240 which looks chilly and increasingly anticyclonic with pleasant sunshine and frosty nights..plenty going on..an unsettled spell but ends on a high note. :- )

168_mslp850uk.png

192_mslp850uk.png

216_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Yes story of this winter, always out at D10, sometimes D8 or D9, and then gone!

Look at all that cold just to our east though at D10. You never know though we might get lucky this time, it was ECM that spoilt the last party if I remember correctly in early February, maybe this new one will be the real deal!:)

ECM0-240.GIF

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
3 minutes ago, snowray said:

 

Yes story of this winter, always out at D10, sometimes D8 or D9, and then gone!

 

 

That's why it's called FI. You can chase your favoured weather conditions all you like, but I'm a non-believer in pre-judging each output at such a range, as it should merely be used for trend spotting. When D8-10 or whatever repeats the pattern over consecutive or inter-related runs, i.e., 12z with 12z, then you can have some degree of faith in its judgement. 

 

As to my prediction for the start of the first week of March, unsettled particularly so towards the North and West with the finest and mildest weather always favouring the South and SouthWest. Frosts by night limited but possible in the clearer conditions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL

As others have started some possible snow showers over high ground tomorrow even in the south and wintry showers widely at lower levels, some accumulations may be possible. Snowy surprises maybe????

h850t850eu.png

uksnowrisk.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Although there is indications of the pattern change with tonight's anomalies there is no agreement on the nature and timing of this, In the 6-10 period they are all on the same page with the intense vortex N. canada, Siberian ridge and the the high cell over Greenland with the negatively tilted trough into the Atlantic. This still leaves a strong westerly and jet leaving the states but with the gradient weakening in the eastern Atlantic and perhaps some influence of the high cell to the north of the UK there would appear to be an indication for things to become a little quieter for the UK This becomes a little more complex as the aforementioned changes are underway during this period and by T240 the vortex has become more diffuse over the Pole introducing some very cold air, particularly in Alaska accompanied by the Atlantic trough becoming more neutrally orientated and thus some ridging in the vicinity of the UK. I think we can safely say a pattern change is looking like a probability but as to where it will end up is still in doubt. Temps still around average, perhaps a tad higher but tending to some N/S bias

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.a2d82725475930818cddca337aeacdd5.pngecm_eps_z500a_nh_11.thumb.png.36bfb55c8448b962d1b18a08d8a49074.png

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.d5460ba8478c8d0e41ae1674c4f2d5c3.pnggefs_z500a_nh_41.thumb.png.b6186291ce7e47329db6e81a599ea259.png

610day_03.thumb.gif.8c6abf254072c773643f2fac0d5b7709.gif

Edited by knocker
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
49 minutes ago, knocker said:

Although there is indications of the pattern change with tonight's anomalies there is no agreement on the nature and timing of this, In the 6-10 period they are all on the same page with the intense vortex N. canada, Siberian ridge and the the high cell over Greenland with the negatively tilted trough into the Atlantic. This still leaves a strong westerly and jet leaving the states but with the gradient weakening in the eastern Atlantic and perhaps some influence of the high cell to the north of the UK there would appear to be an indication for things to become a little quieter for the UK This becomes a little more complex as the aforementioned changes are underway during this period and by T240 the vortex has become more diffuse over the Pole introducing some very cold air, particularly in Alaska accompanied by the Atlantic trough becoming more neutrally orientated and thus some ridging in the vicinity of the UK. I think we can safely say a pattern change is looking like a probability but as to where it will end up is still in doubt. Temps still around average, perhaps a tad higher but tending to some N/S bias

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.a2d82725475930818cddca337aeacdd5.pngecm_eps_z500a_nh_11.thumb.png.36bfb55c8448b962d1b18a08d8a49074.png

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.d5460ba8478c8d0e41ae1674c4f2d5c3.pnggefs_z500a_nh_41.thumb.png.b6186291ce7e47329db6e81a599ea259.png

610day_03.thumb.gif.8c6abf254072c773643f2fac0d5b7709.gif

First proper Greenland High maybe for a long long time???

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

First proper Greenland High maybe for a long long time???

Well the first one that's been near Greenland. :shok:

Edited by knocker
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
17 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

First proper Greenland High maybe for a long long time???

Wouldn't that be wonderful..hope this forum is buzzing again soon! I'm finding the model watching a lot more interesting than I have for most of the winter which for most of the time was like watching paint dry!:D

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Extended eps and GEFS begin to indicate low heights becoming established  to our south later week 2. no sign of any deeply cold uppers to advect our way at the moment - worth looking at the London graph later to see if there are any really chilly members showing up. Some vague interest for coldies (just about) but tomorrow's 00z suite could easily revert to the Euro high anomolies again. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 18z shows a very pleasant early taste of spring during early / mid March..a long southerly draw from north Africa!

18_237_mslp500.png

18_237_uk2mtmp.png

18_264_mslp850.png

18_264_uk2mtmp.png

18_288_mslp850.png

18_288_uk2mtmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

I would expect to see temps reaching 19/20c quite widely in the south of the UK if those charts verified. 

+10c uppers clipping the Southwest.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

As for monday night, well the euro4 model shows more than a little interest there for many of us.

17022718_2618.gif

17022800_2618.gif

17022806_2618-1.gif

17022806_2618.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Now you see it, now you don't!!!

UW144-21_jln6.thumb.GIF.52573e993df30cb7f61fcc88728dd88f.GIF

UW120-21_lrw3.thumb.GIF.fd3febbf2b9de2a7644e2667220b7f82.GIF

 

 

Edited by Dancerwithwings
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This morning's GEFS continues to indicate a retrogression of the pattern in the medium term with a more diffuse vortex bringing some very cold air to Alaska and some ridging in the eastern Atlantic and perhaps some quieter weather to the UK after an unsettled period.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_51.thumb.png.4080caa9d03e04c19e02f3e7b21093e7.png

The complex area of low pressure currently with us giving some very unsettled and wintry conditions will move a way east allowing brief transient ridging on Wednesday. This respite soon gives way to the next upper trough driven east on the strong jet bringing another large, complex, low pressure area and some more showery unsettled conditions for Friday with temps around average albeit quite geographically variable

gfs_uv250_natl_21.thumb.png.805f830158f6a14781ccdc32ed90c510.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_20.thumb.png.c0dc86bb0c2cd32163ae7ee826ca3cd9.png

At this stage there are signs of the slowing down of the west-east energy transport with some renewed amplification and the next trough tracks more south east and from here the high pressure to the SW/S becomes more influential forcing systems approaching from the west north east and thus a more N/S split. So essentially a pretty unsettled week becoming quieter at the beginning of next week with temps around average but trending slightly above.

gfs_z500a_natl_30.thumb.png.13276c50ad10db7ce8c4aa1686daa471.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_29.thumb.png.d1d47ec2666d6284a2a2c2b5b32292b6.pnggfs_z500a_natl_39.thumb.png.83c785ea67bb1d717272c12385252ff2.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I'd go with that - looking less threatening as the week progresses, and potentially becoming much quieter by the start of next week.as the main trough area gradually backs west. Until then a low pressure-fest, with plenty of rain, showers and wind.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
55 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended remains rather wet and unsettled

ukm2.2017030600_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.f0be5e268abd7fdb6246847590f9d1b5.png

Whilst the updated ECM weeklies show a chillier couple of week it's hard to know whether to believe this update or not given they've gone forward in time...

MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20170206_w1.pngMonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20170206_w2.png

Summer Sun....those ECM charts show 6-12 and 13-19 Feb, which has already passed? Or am I missing something here??:)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Summer Sun....those ECM charts show 6-12 and 13-19 Feb, which has already passed? Or am I missing something here??:)

Yes they've gone back in time now clearly something wrong with them at the moment (they auto update so may fix themselves)

Back to the closer time the GFS 00z wasn't as wet as some previous runs maybe even a touch below average for northern parts of Scotland

prec4.thumb.png.1671f2b8adfd2a0b1f44082e8f12ceef.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Summer Sun....those ECM charts show 6-12 and 13-19 Feb, which has already passed? Or am I missing something here??:)

good to see them though, those anomalies were way off at least for the 2nd week

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
13 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

@Summer Sun why don't you edit your post rather than leave these old charts assuming they will update.

I would but they will still show in the quoted post below

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

The 00Z OP hinted at spring, the 06Z takes us back into winter:

gfsnh-0-348.png?6

Note the displaced PV and the question is whether those heading for Cheltenham should be equipped for sun, wind, rain, snow, hail or all of it ?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...