Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[comet]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

As for the rest of us, well the juicy charts from the other day have all but gone, as usual, so no surprises there. 

 

Maybe a glimmer of hope there from the ECM.

I would not be at all surprised to see substantial height rises to our north in the 8 to 10 day period which may well usher in a much colder outlook beyond this.

[damianslaw]

Where is everyone.. we have a very interesting spell of weather ahead, alas its a very fluid rapidly changing set up, and watching the classic wave development on Thursday will make for good viewing, in a winter devoid of anything particularly noteworthy of note, indeed the fact we have waited until 23 Feb before the fourth named storm of the season occurs tells it all - compare that to last winter..

The outlook for the foreseeable remains as changeable as it has been for a good 6 months now, indeed we are probably looking at the most topsy turvy spell of weather since last spring. 

At this time of year, the forum always suffers from a mass departure of posters unless we have freezing temps and snow on the cards - well we have snow prospects for the north at least, at the outlook has quite a bit of wintry potential longer term. 

Back to the models, ECM quite interesting this evening suggesting a more southerly tracking jetstream and a very slack pressure pattern to our north, ripe for high pressure formation. UKMO and GFS suggesting a more typical ridge/trough formation, with less likelihood for high pressure to build in from the north.

Haven't checked the met long term forecast today, but yesterday's indicated significant potential for cold conditions mid month, BBC hinting at this as well as we enter March.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

BBC tonight hints the blocked pattern returning as we head into March offering High Pressure in charge.  

[Cheshire Freeze]

Slightly more obvious ridging thrown NE on the 0z GFS

UKMO with a slight wedge at 144

One of those situations where we could evolve to cold quite quickly

[knocker]

Just an initial comment to say that last night’s anomalies showed no inclination to move away from the evolution that has been indicated on previous runs.. So just to reiterate the EPS 10-15, the GEFS 00z  will be available shortly, we still have the GOA migrating NW, strong Canadian vortex and trough mid Atlantic. And ridging over the UK and east of Iceland with positive anomalies. Ergo the upper flow backed SW and temps a little above average.

This morning's GEFs is along similar lines

Back to the here and now. Not to dwell on tomorrow’s storm as it will be covered elsewhere but the gfs has it 978mb Carlisle at 06z on it’s way the North Sea 973mb by 12z. so a short lived swathe of very strong winds in a corridor north of the Midlands and possible strongest near the east coast. Still time for this to be adjusted.

After that a deep Atlantic low tracks NE to Iceland with associated fronts traversing the UK Friday/Saturday  The beginning of next week heralds the expected amplification and by Tuesday we find the upper trough over the UK with strong ridging mid Atlantic. On the surface this translates to quite deep surface low 978mb over Ireland which has tracked SE as the jet swings around the resurgent high pressure but by the time it reaches the UK it's filling from an initial pressure of 958mb

From this point the energy emanating upstream, and the semi block to the east causes the trough to deconstruct and the ridge  forced NE ending with a cut off upper low to the south and high pressure to the east. This is not an unfamiliar position but I've no great confidence that this how it will evolve so best left there.

[knocker]

Not a huge amount to add vis the ecm. It differs from th gfs as the run proceeds being a little more Atlantic orientated but it's all variations around a theme, so to speak

Edited February 22, 2017 by knocker

[mb018538]

Not much to add really, pretty mundane and boring output at the moment. It appears the core of the vortex will be pulled NW towards the Canadian Arctic in the next week to ten days, though we are stuck in an unsettled regime with mild/chilly alternating. Not much progress on the block at present, but still hopeful of better things once we head into March.

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not much to add really, pretty mundane and boring output at the moment. It appears the core of the vortex will be pulled NW towards the Canadian Arctic in the next week to ten days, though we are stuck in an unsettled regime with mild/chilly alternating. Not much progress on the block at present, but still hopeful of better things once we head into March.

I suspect that early March may be a bit early for any significant plume event.

[winterof79]

The pattern is becoming blocked from 192z onward no matter where the vortex resides.March could become interesting.ECM will get there eventually

[knocker]

No significant changes with the EPS this morning in the ext period. Still find the GOA ridge retrogressing and a strong Canadian vortex, albeit becoming a bit more diffuse. and the negatively tilted trough into the Atlantic. With some ridging south of the UK and to the east of Iceland the upper flow backs WSW thus temps are a little above normal.

Edited February 22, 2017 by knocker

[jvenge]

Not really followed the OP runs for the UK of late, but the mean for the UK, according to the GEFS, isn't really changing much run to run. After the initial warm period ends, returning to seasonal norms seems likely. Anything colder currently on offer doesn't appear to be cold enough to bring snow.

GEFS still keen on a mildly negative AO and NAO in the latter stages of the run. ECM is more inclined to keep thinks neutral or there abouts. Can't post those, sorry.

CFS going for a milder than usual March and also a wetter than usual March. It also sees Canada and the Arctic colder than usual for March. Not changing much run to run, either!

 

[mb018538]

I believe the AO was tipped to trend to well below zero in the coming days for March verification...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

Not seeing too much evidence of this at the moment! There is quite a large spread, but hardly a definite trend to negative. In the balance it would seem.

Edited February 22, 2017 by mb018538

[SMU]

Morning All-

Things still developing nicely for a last roll of the winters dice - I must admit it was lovely here in the sun @18c on monday-

anyway the best chart thus far is the UKMO 168 showing blocking developing to the NE as the atlantic fades away to the south...

[karyo]

1 hour ago, jvenge said:

Not really followed the OP runs for the UK of late, but the mean for the UK, according to the GEFS, isn't really changing much run to run. After the initial warm period ends, returning to seasonal norms seems likely. Anything colder currently on offer doesn't appear to be cold enough to bring snow.

GEFS still keen on a mildly negative AO and NAO in the latter stages of the run. ECM is more inclined to keep thinks neutral or there abouts. Can't post those, sorry.

CFS going for a milder than usual March and also a wetter than usual March. It also sees Canada and the Arctic colder than usual for March. Not changing much run to run, either!

 

The CFS has persistently shown mega northern blocking for March and very cold for the UK. It must have flipped very recently.

Mind you, it would be nice to have a colder than average Arctic for a change to start the melt season on a slow speed.

[MR EXTREMES]

34 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All-

Things still developing nicely for a last roll of the winters dice - I must admit it was lovely here in the sun @18c on monday-

anyway the best chart thus far is the UKMO 168 showing blocking developing to the NE as the atlantic fades away to the south...

problem is the vortex still floating around greenland canada location with continues pulses of heights to our south south west we need the jet stream to plunge much further south.

although not impossible it really does fill me with dread considering i live in the south then anything here in march beyond the 10th or mid march really does not excite me.

it really would have to be from the north or northeast even then its not the best situation.

problem is the fluid flows of low pressure systems being spawned by the vortex it shows that the strat events really have not packed much of a punch at all this winter.

but im still interested in march outcome,

but im not convinced on march being anymore than average especially in the southern half of the uk perhaps polar wintry weather further north.

[Frosty.]

Another scandi high forms during the Gfs 6z low res through early March..always nice to see a scandi high 

[jvenge]

Little of interest to cold lovers on the 6z. Perturb 7 and 17 being the coldest one into the depths of FI, but even they won't bring snow.

 

[mb018538]

I'm still hesitant with regards to a potential pattern change back to blocked. The models don't look as optimistic to me, and the MetO update doesn't really add any weight to the argument either. I'm going to be incredibly boring and just sit on the fence for a few days until something emerges from the ether!

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I'm still hesitant with regards to a potential pattern change back to blocked. The models don't look as optimistic to me, and the MetO update doesn't really add any weight to the argument either. I'm going to be incredibly boring and just sit on the fence for a few days until something emerges from the ether!

No need to stay on the fence. Go for a walk, the temperature is supporting outdoor activities ;-)

 

[Frosty.]

18 minutes ago, jvenge said:

No need to stay on the fence. Go for a walk, the temperature is supporting outdoor activities ;-)

 

Next week doesn't look mild..I'm happy

[jvenge]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Next week doesn't look mild..I'm happy

But also not cold ;-) Regular weather. 

[Frosty.]

Exciting times for parts of the north tomorrow, heavy snow with 20-30 cm for lucky areas.

[Matthew.]

A cool start to March from GFS 12z op. Maybe something lurking in the woodshed

[knocker]

This evening's gfs is pretty much a dog's dinner So I'll settle for saying the upper trough sinks over the UK with ridging in mid Atlantic early next week giving this surface chart.

[karyo]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

This evening's gfs is pretty much a dog's dinner So I'll settle for saying the upper trough sinks over the UK with ridging in mid Atlantic early next week giving this surface chart.

This is a dog's dinner because...?