Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I'm not sure who said the continent isn't cold enough for snow, don't want to get into any arguments on that front. 

 

 

You will see my sentence included a question mark... so it was not a provocative statement.  I did read a comment about the continent warming, which you actually replied to lol...

Edited February 20, 2017 by karlos1983

[Seasonality]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

You will see my sentence included a question mark... so it was not a provocative statement.  I did read a comment about the continent warming, which you actually replied to lol...

Oh not suggesting provocation at all, just wasn't sure what was said by whom and didn't want to ruffle any feathers myself. It is fair to say the continent is warming though in comparison to the cold of January and first half of February. All relative though isn't it? 

[weirpig]

Well the 6z shows quite alot of wintry precipitation around the UK   and quite cold uppers  maybe March could deliver the goods.  actually its a stonker of a run in Fi

Edited February 20, 2017 by weirpig

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Oh not suggesting provocation at all, just wasn't sure what was said by whom and didn't want to ruffle any feathers myself. It is fair to say the continent is warming though in comparison to the cold of January and first half of February. All relative though isn't it? 

Par for the course heading out of Winter into spring.. all about expectations at this time of year. But cold March very much a possibility.

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Well the 6z shows quite alot of wintry precipitation around the UK   and quite cold uppers  maybe March could deliver the goods.  actually its a stonker of a run in Fi

Another great GFS run from next Mon onwards - on this run the M4 corridor looks like it will be digging out - all for fun of course but the best cold spell of the winter looks pretty good for next week and beyond.

 

The Op was a cold outlier on the last run, be interesting to see the next set of GEFS - I think some more support may be there.

Edited February 20, 2017 by Ali1977

[mb018538]

The 6z follows some recent trending in smashing the PV to bits as we head into March. Everything will all depend on where the cold lobes end up (should things pan out this way).



Either way, charts like this should encourage coldies that there must be some gold at the end of the rainbow.

[mb018538]

Just for fun and a comparison, here's a look back of the PV of death we had to put up with last winter....



Hideous.

[karlos1983]

hows that for consistency of the theme then!!

Although the uppers take a little longer to get dragged in, but that is looking at way too much detail, just nice viewing atm. 

 

Edited February 20, 2017 by karlos1983

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, TEITS said:

One big difference though. The amazing synoptics you see on the 0Z are always more likely in March, April than Dec,Jan, Early Feb. This is why snowfall is more likely in these months than Dec. Also this is what made Dec 2009/2010 so special and very unusual.

If anything these synoptics get more unusual the further into spring one goes. The easterly shown in yesterday's run is the wintry variety which would be more likely to crop up in... well... winter. March and April style easterlies don't tend to transpire as shown, becoming weaker affairs as the months progress with warmer uppers, and quite often, bringing in mild/warm air off the continent.

Incidentally, the 06Z GFS shows a slightly more plausible solution with the upcoming unsettled spell becoming on a more southerly trajectory, with a washout low on March 01st sinking into the continent with a symptomatic northeasterly with moderate uppers following behind and the risk of snow on the rear flank.

 

Similarly to the most recent easterly spell, it wouldn't take long for the warm uppers in eastern Europe to mix out the colder uppers over western Europe. Now if that high to the north, could move westwards and open the floodgates to Arctic air, we could be in business, especially if the Atlantic approaches from the west and we get a battleground. All FI of course. The form horse for the last few months would be for the high to settle over us and the Atlantic to slowly make inroads over the top.

In the meantime, a rather uninspiring few days to come with the chance of notably high temperatures in any sunny breaks. Windy towards the latter half of the week with a colder interlude in the north and a brief return to average conditions in the south before milder air arrives again by Saturday. Yawn.

 

[weirpig]

This little feature could also have quite alittle bite to it.  Gusts up to 60mph 

[karlos1983]

Nice graphical display of snowfall for Europe in the next 10 days.

 

[snowray]

Its as if the switch that was switched off on the 1st of December is being switched back on on the 1st of March, pretty mad really.

Surely not?

[JamesL]

Although I'm sure many are wanting an early start to spring, I'm sure many on here would also like to see more snowfall. 

What is more encouraging next week is the blocking high comes from a mid Atlantic ridge. Far more room for error imo than a scandi ridge which notoriously gets modelled as HLB and ends of as a sceuro ridge come t0 with any cold uppers heading into Greece! 

So for me I'm quite excited how this is going to play out over the next 4-5 days. GFS is always good at spotting trends and now the ECM is sniffing around a similar theme. 

Expect some more support from the 12z and possibly a sniff from the ext UKMO at 168 and also the ens later on today 

All in all, good trends! 

[SMU]

The 06z continues with the same 'theme' of the 00z although with subtle upgrades early on-

infact we 'could' trend towards a longer cold spell & many snow events for Scotland if the cold air can hang on for longer- ( especially the further north you go ) - this will be the ski resorts best week of the season-

T120 sees the cold air in situ over Scotland -

with an atlantic low trying to edge across- the 'trending' may well see the angle of the low be more Easterly allowing the cold to stay in Scotland with a prolonged snow event..

Either way- the ridge is over canada @120 & that slides east grinding to a halt to the west of the UK-

This is all driven by the change in zonal winds highlighted last weekend - just a couple of days behind schedule-i

The vortex looks to be displaced ( not split ) wave 1- setting up shop over Scandi...

looking great for the last roll of the dice -late feb / early March is fine....

S

 

 

 

[nick sussex]

Was about to enter my hibernation mode and then woke up to todays outputs! They do seem to have picked up a signal to fragment the PV and develop some height rises to the nw. Earlier theres also a chance of some snow for Scotland and the especially n/ne England as we see a slowing of the troughing upstream and some disruption around the T102hrs mark, there could be sufficient cold to undercut the precip. The UKMO is less interested but it was viewed as a lower probability outcome upstream by NCEP.

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Was about to enter my hibernation mode and then woke up to todays outputs! They do seem to have picked up a signal to fragment the PV and develop some height rises to the nw. Earlier theres also a chance of some snow for Scotland and the especially n/ne England as we see a slowing of the troughing upstream and some disruption around the T102hrs mark, there could be sufficient cold to undercut the precip. The UKMO is less interested but it was viewed as a lower probability outcome upstream by NCEP.

I'm thinking back to that amazing post from Bring Back 1962-63 last night..The FI model output is showing the deep cold he mentioned..real winter could be on the way..in early spring!

Edited February 20, 2017 by Frosty.

[ArHu3]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Just for fun and a comparison, here's a look back of the PV of death we had to put up with last winter....



Hideous.

It looks very similar to the output of the ecmwf for the next 10 days (at least yesterday)

Edited February 20, 2017 by ArHu3

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

It looks very similar to the output of the ecmwf for the next 10 days

It looks nothing like it.

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

It looks very similar to the output of the ecmwf for the next 10 days

really? look at the area Directly to our north... very chalk n Cheese springs to mind

In fact look everywhere... completely different.

 

Edited February 20, 2017 by karlos1983

[ArHu3]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It looks nothing like it.

It did yesterday, today is much better

Yesterday 

 

Edited February 20, 2017 by ArHu3

[nick sussex]

Just now, Frosty. said:

I'm thinking back to that amazing post from Bring Back 1962-63 last night..The FI model output is showing the deep cold he mentioned..real winter could be on the way..in early spring!

I think its best to remain cautious until we see the real interest showing up in the earlier timeframe. Given the countless disappointments over the last few months I won't be bringing out the ear muffs and woolie hat just yet. If it does turn much colder it will certainly come as a big shock down here where the weathers been sunny and warm for the last few days.

[Frosty.]

Just now, nick sussex said:

I think its best to remain cautious until we see the real interest showing up in the earlier timeframe. Given the countless disappointments over the last few months I won't be bringing out the ear muffs and woolie hat just yet. If it does turn much colder it will certainly come as a big shock down here where the weathers been sunny and warm for the last few days.

Yes nick, caution as always, we have had our fingers burnt too often this winter believing Fi output which leads to much disappointment but I have a feeling the best wintry weather of the season is yet to come.

[karlos1983]

Support growing for a colder spell of weather from the 00z to the 06z ensembles in early March ?

 

Edited February 20, 2017 by karlos1983

[Ali1977]

I think a mean over this period isn't a great chart to use, as the cold which may come in starts around the 1/2 Mar.  I think Sid may need a hutch full of straw early March if the GFS Op is correct.

 A long way to go yet before any coldie celebrations though - the latest METO does not support any cold spell at all early March.

Edited February 20, 2017 by reef
Quoted post removed

[Daniel*]

48 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Support growing for a colder spell of weather from the 00z to the 06z ensembles in early March ?

 

Indeed, certainly not overwhelming yet. However, scope for most wintriest part of the 'winter', snow? Arriving in meteorological Spring It would not surprise me in the slightest.