Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

18 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Eye spy with my little eye something beginning with E, at least it's at T384

C.S

Another March 2006 on the horizon? One never knows....

[snowray]

T120 fax.

Looks more like the 12z GFS than its own UKMO output. 

[snowray]

41 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello sir, hello sir!!!

A chart of great beauty, would certainly produce the goods in early March in this near perfect easterly set up.

[Scandinavian High.]

Winter is not over yet.

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Winter is not over yet.

Just over 2 weeks to wait, for that chart to verify........not long now (cough)

[weatherguy]

13 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Winter is not over yet.

Not nailed on til it makes it to at least +372h IMO 

[knocker]

The long wave pattern remains as it was yesterday evening so the near range evolution remains unsettled with alternate periods of rain and drier interludes with temps variable but tending a tad above average.

After the current warm spell we await Thursday's depression. Fortunately the 'bomb' aspect has been discarded and we are now looking a common or garden depression 975mb over northern Scotland by midday Thursday. This is moving so rapidly that 18 hours later it's in eastern Europe and a secondary shallow wave is now over northern Scotland. So a brief spell of strong winds around the borders and northern England and quite wet with snow on the high ground.

Thereafter with much energy being directed across the Atlantic and the high pressure relegated to the SW and south the UK is in an unsettled westerly regime alternating between wet and dry periods with a N/S bias and temps generally holding up very well. I noticed yesterday that the rooks are assiduously sorting out their nests so Spring must just be around the corner.

Edited February 19, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z still shows a very short cold incursion from the north later in the week with a chance of snow in places and widespread frost..

[knocker]

The ecm runs the depression further south and has it over northern England 980mb at 06 on Thursday. Thereafter a pretty wet Saturday as fronts traverse the country before ending with an unsettled SW regime with temps holding up very well. I can't get an old Max Bygraves song out of my head this  morning. I know not why.

Edited February 19, 2017 by knocker

[Matthew.]

This chart has potential of cold developing but once again as with the general story of the winter is too much energy riding over the top to the NW/Greenland. Any heights over Scandinavia just get pushed over Central Europe. You never know though this might decrease through March allowing for more proper Northern blocking maybe

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows a northwesterly flow later next week but for most daytime temps will hold around or a bit above average. By next weekend we're back to the Atlantic

2 things that UKMO has consistently not shown for the UK a deep low or northerly

Edited February 19, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The Gem 00z also shows a brief cold shot from the nw / n later in the week with a risk of snow in places, mainly in the north and especially on hills but at least it would be feeling much colder for a time.

[MattTarrant]

12 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello sir, hello sir!!!

Hello sir, hello sir once again! Could be a trend to keep an eye on. 324h on 6z...

...

Edited February 19, 2017 by MattTarrant

[snowray]

Moving closer by a couple of days.

[Purga]

Oh no - here we go again!

[Matthew.]

10 minutes ago, Purga said:

Oh no - here we go again!

As long as we still see that in summer i dont mind

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

As long as we still see that in summer i dont mind

Are you holidaying in western norway then Matthew? 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows the early spring snow which most on here crave but has been sadly lacking for the last 3 months..and now, let us pray..just need a bit of southward adjustment so we all have fun

Great eye candy!

Edited February 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[Ali1977]

People need to remember the snow of March 13 was near the end, if we get a decent Easterly early March you could still get some pretty severe conditions.

[Frosty.]

All is not lost fellow coldies, there are some peachy charts from the GEFS 6z!

Edited February 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[MR EXTREMES]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

All is not lost fellow coldies, there are some peachy charts from the GEFS 6z!

Alot of post coming out chasing the elusive cold trouble is its to far gone.

3 years on the trot the vortex has been victorious  the final stratospheric warming is unlikely to lead to a special March. 

Although there's a mixture of possibilities either dry for the south with temps above average with northern areas looking more unsettled with more average to slightly below at times.

Or unsettled across the country average in the south with possible colder conditions to the north.

There's very little signal that northern blocking will take hold.

Now looking forward to summer and next winter hopefully a modki El nino with east qbo and I'm expecting to see the sun really go quiet,

setting up much better start to next winter.

Very frustrating winter this year but Europe must of had an exceptional winter especially southern mid Europe deep in bedded cold from start till finish.

As for the models today nothing really to be excited about.

[Frosty.]

49 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Alot of post coming out chasing the elusive cold trouble is its to far gone.

3 years on the trot the vortex has been victorious  the final stratospheric warming is unlikely to lead to a special March. 

Although there's a mixture of possibilities either dry for the south with temps above average with northern areas looking more unsettled with more average to slightly below at times.

Or unsettled across the country average in the south with possible colder conditions to the north.

There's very little signal that northern blocking will take hold.

Now looking forward to summer and next winter hopefully a modki El nino with east qbo and I'm expecting to see the sun really go quiet,

setting up much better start to next winter.

Very frustrating winter this year but Europe must of had an exceptional winter especially southern mid Europe deep in bedded cold from start till finish.

As for the models today nothing really to be excited about.

Some have already given up, I haven't which is why I'm still posting cold charts for March..you never know, possible trend spotting and early spring could yet deliver the snow we deserve.

[phil nw.]

Later gfs continuing to show the start of the vortex breakup.We may get lucky if it's late snow you want- if it splits in our favour- like the easterly showing today.Yes an FI chart but a repeating trend in recent runs with the onset of this again showing in the first week of March.

Still beyond the ECM range yet,although hints of the vortex tightening to our north west before it's likely splitting is just starting to show up here too.

In the meantime it looks like Winter is ending on a rather tame note with just the brief north westerly towards the end of the week.

The Azores high never far away.

Hopefully March model outputs will become more interesting as the NH profile starts to undergo a change from a weakening and shrinking pv.

Edited February 19, 2017 by phil nw.

[knocker]

The EPS 10-15 mean anomaly is showing a strong vortex N. Canada with trough SE into mid Atlantic and is the same at T360.

[Gowon]

The GFS still showing pressure rising to our NE but this time a bit different to this mornings run..

Maybe one last shot at a proper snowy spell

I like the UKMO 144hr chart in how it manages to amplify that area to the NE better than the GFS at the same time.

 

 

 

Edited February 19, 2017 by D.V.R