Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[Man With Beard]

In addition to an impressive GEFS suite (more than 50% northerlies by T288), another straw to clutch from the ECM perhaps? Potential for the Atlantic and Scandi lows to combine leading to a sharp NEly?

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

it would just be so typical for the perfect winter synoptics to pop up too late.

 

Better late than never? March can deliver as we saw in 2013 when blizzards struck parts of the uk but it's coming to the time of year now when I'm happy with pleasant spring like warmth or heavy snow if we get lucky.

Anyway, the models show a mild spell in the reliable.

[snowray]

26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Some interesting patterns showing up on the ECM 12hrs run, not sure I'm in the mood for  a cold spring after an underwhelming winter. it would just be so typical for the perfect winter synoptics to pop up too late.

I could still handle a very cold and snowy early March but it would have to be worth it, say up to about mid month. After that I would like things ideally to warm up.

Edited February 17, 2017 by snowray

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Some interesting patterns showing up on the ECM 12hrs run, not sure I'm in the mood for  a cold spring after an underwhelming winter, it would just be so typical for the perfect winter synoptics to pop up too late.

 

I for one would not be surprised if we saw the coldest set ups in March of the whole winter...and how typical that would be when sun strength and warmth really impacts!  That HP to our NE developing in FI ECM.....one to keep an eye on?

 

BFTP

[phil nw.]

16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Some interesting patterns showing up on the ECM 12hrs run, not sure I'm in the mood for  a cold spring after an underwhelming winter, it would just be so typical for the perfect winter synoptics to pop up too late.

 

It wouldn't be surprising Nick.How often do we see an early taste of Spring in later February followed by a sharp return to something much colder as we actually enter Spring proper.

Gefs are showing a colder trend in week 2 more notably further north

The coming few weeks usually raise some interesting model outputs as the polar vortex starts to weaken and heights start to appear further north in the gaps.

[comet]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

In addition to an impressive GEFS suite (more than 50% northerlies by T288), another straw to clutch from the ECM perhaps? Potential for the Atlantic and Scandi lows to combine leading to a sharp NEly?

ECM t240 charts not really worth commenting on but when tied in with the GEFS there is a definite trend for heights to build somewhere to our north. Although timing of this also seems to be an issue and the best one could say is end of Feb onwards probably. Still in the game maybe if and its a big if they can bring cold enough uppers down with them.

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ens shows nothing more than a day or 2 of slightly colder air later next week so temps most likely closer to average for a couple of days before rising for the final few days of winter

 

[knocker]

The anomalies this evening are not indicating any mayor changes in the 14 day period and are in pretty good agreement, particularly in the earlier period.

Where we still retain the two vortex lobe set up in the N. Scandinavia area and Canada/Greenland. Along with a ridge GOA, trough N. America and some residual weak ridging in the NE of same. So with a fair amount of energy being emitted upstream with pretty strong jet and a zonal Atlantic, as the influence of the Azores HP weakens, a more unsettled regime for the UK beckons. The will still tend to a N/S split but Pm incursions are liable further south in this changeable regime but generally temps hold up pretty well and are around average, maybe even a little above.

In the 10-15 period there is no agreement so confidence at the moment is low until this is sorted. The GEFs is the odd one out with ridging mid Atlantic whereas the EPS makes much more of the Canadian vortex and a mid Atlantic trough supported by NOAA. The GEFS interpretation obviously allows more scope for some Pm incursions.

 

 

Edited February 17, 2017 by knocker

[gottolovethisweather]

45 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM ens shows nothing more than a day or 2 of slightly colder air later next week so temps most likely closer to average for a couple of days before rising for the final few days of winter

 

 

 

 

22nd February onwards, remains one to watch. Wouldn't trust anything at D8 or beyond so yes, there is hope for coldies judging on Summer Sun's graph. The day or two SS refers to my eyes is from D6 through to D8 so after that is clearly FI, all to play for then. Mild and very Mild briefly at first then cooler to slightly below average (think wintry showers perhaps?). I also concur fully with Phil NW's post up thread, a sound analysis as ever.

Edited February 17, 2017 by gottolovethisweather

[Summer Sun]

UKMO says no to a northerly at D7

[Frosty.]

50 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO says no to a northerly at D7

Gfs 18z says yes to some snow and arctic air with sharp frosts later next week..

Edited February 17, 2017 by Frosty.

[knocker]

Very impressive. A 38mb drop and into the N. Sea in 24 hours.

[Frosty.]

So..there is a chance of a short-lived Arctic incursion later next week, a weak meridional spasm perhaps but still bringing a risk of snow showers southwards and sharp frosts for a time..

[Polar Maritime]

Very nearly a split Vortex into the GFS run this morning.

[knocker]

The GEFs upper air pattern is virtually unchanged this morning so last evening's comments still pertain and thus requires no further input this morning.

Now for the detail and a close look at our nasty looking depression next week.

Until Wednesday 00z the UK is under the combined influence of high pressure to the south west and low pressure to the NW-NE  Thus a mild NW airflow over England with temps possibly as high as 17C in parts of the E/SE on Monday. Cloud may be a bit of a problem to the west.

24 hours later this picture is about to rapidly change as a depression spawned from the upper trough off of the eastern seeboard is poised about 600km west of the Hebrides 995mb.

In the next 24 hours this tracks very rapidly east/south east on a strong jet to be just SW of Oslo 963mb This track takes it very close to N. Scotland and there could, briefly, be some very strong winds in the southern quadrant with blizzards on the higher ground.

After this brief hiatus and some short lived ridging the next upper trough deconstructs in mid Atlantic as the UK comes under a SW regime with temps a little above average Still nothing untoward lurking in the woodshed as we move gently into March apart from the above mentioned 'bomb'.

 

Edited February 18, 2017 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Knocker, Certainly the low next Thursday is one to keep an eye on especially for the far North which subsequently has lacked any Winter storms this year so far.. 

 

Edited February 18, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

Yes interesting how this actually will evolve Polar. The ecm is still going for twin centres with one, 958mb, over the Hebrides, 1800z Thursday.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z low res turns into anticyclonic heaven, lovely sunshine and slight night frosts in early March would be great!

[winterof79]

Yet another miss for the UK

Quite tedious really

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO still isn't keen on a deep low later next week

ECM

Edited February 18, 2017 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

The ecm analysis for 00z Friday

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm analysis for 00z Friday

Looks vile, hope the ukmo is right!

[markw2680]

13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looks vile, hope the ukmo is right!

I for one hopes it's closer to the ecm, be good to get some exciting weather! It's been a pretty boring winter in the main tbh, you can't beat a good storm imo

[damianslaw]

Only taking cursory glances of the models at present - I don't find atlantic based westerly fluid patterns particularly interesting, just the default position, hence why I'm not looking at them too much right now.

Most noteworthy discussion points:

Significant warm sector forecast on Monday, sheltered eastern parts could hit 16/17 degrees, which is a decent max in May nevermind mid Feb, but certainly not unusual

Thursday eve/Friday - possible deep low system, something we have had virtually none of all winter, so potential for gales in the north, things could shift further east and we end up with a slight glancing blow for NE parts only

Longer term - signs heights may develop strongly to our NE, ushering in colder conditions for the start of Spring, after what will have been a mainly very mild second half to February.. and a damp whimper to the end of winter 16/17 which in my book will go down as one reading 'instantly forgettable, nothing happened!'.. 

[Frosty.]

Although it's a mild weekend It will definitely feel like spring has sprung on Mon and tues on the Gfs 6z..weds looks less mild but still mild in the far south and then thurs another mild sector crosses southern uk with low teens celsius possible..

Edited February 18, 2017 by Frosty.