Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows a generally unsettled next few weeks with temps close to average but  mild dominating the reliable timeframe followed by alternating cooler / milder phases with the most unsettled conditions further n / nw and the best of any fine weather across the s / se..looks like this winter is fizzling out, not that it had much fizz to begin with!

Edited February 17, 2017 by Frosty.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Fleeting cold and back to mild, nothing substantial just middle ground. North taking the brunt of the worst weather. 

With all this mild a cold spell in March with any umph could be devastating. 

Saw bumble bees today!! 

[knocker]

Still looking at some explosive cyclogenesis with the second low next week with gusts in excess of 80kts possible in. N. Scotland.

[snowray]

Probably the best chart of the week there from the GEM, IF, your still looking for a bit of potential for an early March easterly. 

[Summer Sun]

Uncertainties at t144

UKMO fairly settled                                   GFS stormy especially so in the north

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Uncertainties at t144

UKMO fairly settled                                   GFS stormy especially so in the north

Yes, I was just thinking to myself big differences there, if UKMO confirms then we are looking at a very mild week coming up, in fact that chart looks about as warm as you can get in late February.

[mb018538]

20 minutes ago, knocker said:

Still looking at some explosive cyclogenesis with the second low next week with gusts in excess of 80kts possible in. N. Scotland.

Depends on who is right here knocker....GFS is pretty unsettled around that period, UKMO looks a lot less threatening. Perhaps hints of a cut-off low diving towards the Azores and a pressure rise on the UKMO. Different scenario on the GFS. ECM will be of interest later!

[knocker]

13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Depends on who is right here knocker....GFS is pretty unsettled around that period, UKMO looks a lot less threatening. Perhaps hints of a cut-off low diving towards the Azores and a pressure rise on the UKMO. Different scenario on the GFS. ECM will be of interest later!

Well yes but they are not hugely different. The speed they have things evolving next week 12-18 hours makes a huge difference to any particular time analysis chart so they do not need to differ by that much in the timing to show a different picture.. Check the gfs for T126 to see what I mean  Yes It will be interesting to see what the ecm comes up with as this morning it was, unusually, almost identical to the gfs as to the position of the low albeit, they both had it further south.

Edited February 17, 2017 by knocker

[gottolovethisweather]

54 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Fleeting cold and back to mild, nothing substantial just middle ground. North taking the brunt of the worst weather. 

With all this mild a cold spell in March with any umph could be devastating. 

Saw bumble bees today!! 

 

 

 

Was just thinking the same, The slower trickling transition from winter to spring is as kind as it gets for Mother Nature and the farming sector, so that in itself might not be a bad thing. Yes, I would like to see another roll of the dice for wintry synoptics, and personally, I think we are more likely to receive one than not, but it has been a kind weather season so far, and that trend might continue into spring.  The 22nd February onwards for a few days thereafter is still a tentative WATCH period for me.

Edited February 17, 2017 by gottolovethisweather

[Ali1977]

Some examples from the 12z GEFS for 01 Mar, and there are more. Is something starting to brew I wonder.

The Mean is pretty good too.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows mild domination for the south until next Friday but during the course of next week it becomes progressively cooler further north after a mild start. It looks spring like for the next 6 days or so across the southern half of the uk with temps into the low teens celsius, possibly reaching 16/17c in places on monday.

Edited February 17, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO is the odd one out at t144

ECM                                                             GFS                                                               GEM                                                           UKMO

[KyleHenry]

The model fatigue rest bite is coming to a close. Are we all ready to go again? 

The upcoming SSW leads to the tropospheric PV to lose it's conformity. The GFS is beginning to display possible outcomes.

I believe Trop PV lobes will break off from the main body. As to where they locate, it is too early to say. 

Most intriguing is how the Synoptics evolve in conjunction with rarely seen MJO phase.

 

AO to return to negative. 

In terms of the farming community March the 1st would be an important time to monitor forecasts.

[Summer Sun]

ECM giving a northerly at t168

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM giving a northerly at t168

It doesn't last long

Edited February 17, 2017 by Frosty.

[cheeky_monkey]

10 minutes ago, KyleHenry said:

The model fatigue rest bite is coming to a close. Are we all ready to go again? 

The upcoming SSW leads to the tropospheric PV to lose it's conformity. The GFS is beginning to display possible outcomes.

I believe Trop PV lobes will break off from the main body. As to where they locate, it is too early to say. 

Most intriguing is how the Synoptics evolve in conjunction with rarely seen MJO phase.

 

AO to return to negative. 

In terms of the farming community March the 1st would be an important time to monitor forecasts.

Horribly cold start to March here in Western Canada if that top chart came to fruition...i new we would pay for this warm spell sooner or later

[knocker]

The ecm also looking at some explosive cyclogenesis but with a somewhat complex evolution and at this stage.It is not dissimilar to the gfs but has two centres with one just NW of the Hebrides 960mb at 1800z on Thursday. Obviously a potential here for some very strong winds and inclement weather and, equally obviously, plenty of time for the evolution to be adjusted in the interim.

Edited February 17, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Not the coldest end to the Ecm 12z I've seen this winter but at least we get a 1 day Northerly..will it disappear by the next run?

 

Edited February 17, 2017 by Frosty.

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Not the coldest end to the Ecm 12z I've seen this winter but at least we get a 1 day Northerly..will it disappear by the next run?

 

A gross exaggeration Karl. Friday 06z - Sat 00z and that's pushing it.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

A gross exaggeration Karl. Friday 06z - Sat 00z and that's pushing it.

I've got Ecm wild goose cold chasing fatigue knocker

[mb018538]

Looks like UKMO is playing its own tune tonight....every other run much more unsettled. Potential to be a named storm? Could be severe gales for a time.

[Frosty.]

Now if we could just tap into that very cold air over NE Europe shown on the Ecm 12z T+240? thank God it's nearly spring!

[snowray]

Do I spy, with my little eye, a Svalbard high forming?

 

At D10 though.

[phil nw.]

 

It looks like a week of contrasts coming up.From a taste of Spring early on next week as we are experience warm air from the south Atlantic wafting north east over the Azores high to more unsettled and cooler conditions spreading south as low pressure heads across to the north.

so after a few mild and quiet days with temperatures maybe as high as 15/16C further south on Monday we see a fall of to low/mid single figures by the end of the week as some polar air comes south.

Areas further north look like seeing more of a colder period in week 2 with temps nearer average further south -after the mildness of the next 3/4 days.

 

 

 

 

[nick sussex]

Some interesting patterns showing up on the ECM 12hrs run, not sure I'm in the mood for  a cold spring after an underwhelming winter, it would just be so typical for the perfect winter synoptics to pop up too late.

 

Edited February 17, 2017 by nick sussex