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Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I take the fact that there is no comment on the EC46 weekly anomalies as they are poor, has anyone got all the weekly height anomalies please?

Too early 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, bluearmy said:

Too early 

Right, I know they used to be at 10pm but I'm sure ive seen them posted at 8pm lately on some foreign website.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

SS, hope it fails, monitoring this, GFS 12Z also has a washout low, timed right for the day next Thursday, 06Z did as well

ukprec.png

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017021600_04

 

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017021600_06

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017021600_07

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017021600_09

Just for you Feb1991. 

 

Thanks, in line with met office monthly output, very slight positive anoms over Greenland suggests a very small minority of members going for a prolonged colder spell. I certainly can see brief cold spells (even snowy ones) in mid March.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A noteworthy mild spell is upon us, the Gfs 18z shows temps across southern uk reaching 12 / 13c for the next 5 days with Monday the warmest at 15/16c around 60F..this will really boost the daffs etc!

18_93_uk2mtmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

A noteworthy mild spell is upon us, the Gfs 18z shows temps across southern uk reaching 12 / 13c for the next 5 days with Monday the warmest at 15/16c around 60F..this will really boost the daffs etc!

18_93_uk2mtmp.png

Indeed frosty.....but hang on by T168 snow showers are into Scotland,NW England,and

Wales on a cool NW wind

C.S. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Indeed frosty.....but hang on by T168 snow showers are into Scotland,NW England,and

Wales on a cool NW wind

C.S. 

Indeed C.S

18_165_preciptype.png

18_180_preciptype.png

18_180_uk2mtmpmin.png

18_180_mslp850.png

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Going by the 18z temperatures drop by upto 10c between Monday and Thursday.

C.S. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Going by the 18z temperatures drop by upto 10c between Monday and Thursday.

C.S. 

Yes it would be quite a shock to the system following such a mild / warm spring like spell. 

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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

Im not sure this would really be a noteworthy spell ... As recently as 2012 a Feb temp of over 18 c was recorded and in each of the following years temps of 14-16c were recorded .

Certainly early feelings of Spring warmth seem more commonplace and there's something quite comforting feeling those early days of warmth on your back...

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

a pretty unusual agreement between the gfs and ecm with the latter also having a depression, same depth and position next Thursday at 06z Need to keep a beady on this in the interim. The forerunner to this could also produce some strong winds as it tracks east north of Scotland.Meanwhile it's also looking at temps quite widespread in the 14C range on Monday.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_6.thumb.png.d318b1aa764f24c6543190bc09f8cecb.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_7.thumb.png.0cfce6837ce6165e62ecda5c84d025cd.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Next Monday still looks the warmest day of this mild spell according to the Ecm 00z with temps widely into the low to mid teens celsius with a few spots topping 61F (16c) I would think. Thereafter it trends cooler but tues / wed still look mild across the south but the second half of next week looks cooler / colder and unsettled with wintry ppn across hills and to lower levels in the north with a risk of overnight frosts for a time later next week before it starts to turn milder once again.

72_mslp850uk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

As each run goes by the ECM mean rises the 850's for later next week

15th 12z

graphe_ens3.php.png

16th 12z

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.edeac9c377df69beeec255aba2e450e1.png

Today 00z

5656575.thumb.png.3dc263d4b99d9ec71c5faaf066ee147e.png

At this rate especially for the south, temps won't be lower than average maybe even remaining a touch above

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

As each run goes by the ECM mean rises the 850's for later next week

15th 12z

graphe_ens3.php.png

16th 12z

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.edeac9c377df69beeec255aba2e450e1.png

Today 00z

5656575.thumb.png.3dc263d4b99d9ec71c5faaf066ee147e.png

At this rate especially for the south, temps won't be much lower than average maybe even remaining a touch above

Yes Gavin it looks like the potential colder shot is already being watered down, could be a bit of a damp squib.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

As each run goes by the ECM mean rises the 850's for later next week

15th 12z

graphe_ens3.php.png

16th 12z

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.edeac9c377df69beeec255aba2e450e1.png

Today 00z

5656575.thumb.png.3dc263d4b99d9ec71c5faaf066ee147e.png

At this rate especially for the south, temps won't be lower than average maybe even remaining a touch above

The most notable thing is that the spike to Plus 10 has been removed this morning for next week. Later in the period looks pretty much the same

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Looking at the EPS 10-15 anomaly this morning one can identify three key features all of which have been indicated over the last few days. GOA ridge, active Canadian/Greenland vortex and zonal Atlantic = continuing unsettled.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

After a quick cool shot in which low pressure barely has time to draw the cold air south both GFS and the Euro suggest that high pressure will build over Europe as the ridge topples with a anti-cyclonic southerly by days 9 and 10. 

ECMOPEU00_216_1.png

It seems that February ends with a whimper.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

After a quick cool shot in which low pressure barely has time to draw the cold air south both GFS and the Euro suggest that high pressure will build over Europe as the ridge topples with a anti-cyclonic southerly by days 9 and 10. 

ECMOPEU00_216_1.png

It seems that February ends with a whimper.

Agreed, it could be a long way back to proper cold, we could be looking at fleeting cooler interludes in an otherwise mild zonal pattern with the Azores high playing its part.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

For me, the ECM is a little less pleasing than the 12z from yesterday. It is keen on bringing winter back at day 10, with a snow event and low temperatures. It has also downgraded the warmth in between now and then. I preferred the 12z from yesterday, speaking selfishly :-) A few GEFS kinda support it, but doesn't look to be a majority situation...yet.

So, to means! The ECM Op looks to be on he colder side of the mean for the period T168-T216 (for the UK). Perhaps a chance of snow for some next Friday? At elevation in the north west and north east, though. Rain turning to snow by the looks of it. Maybe falling snow in other places, but no chances of settling on what will likely be milder and wet ground.

Considering the Op is on the colder side, one might infer that it would most likely be cold rain, as opposed to a border line snow event. Depends if you trust the mean or the Op though :-)

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

GFS 6z has turned the modelled upcoming cold spell for the UK into a slightly less mild spell. Not having it at all. Will be interesting to see the ensembles to see if they are agreeing.

gfs_t2m_anom_eur_34 (2).png

gfs_t2m_anom_eur_33 (2).png

Edited by jvenge
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 6z prolongs the very mild spell in the south until later next week with some impressive early spring warmth in the dregs of what remains of winter 2016/17..a winter that promised much but delivered little.

06_81_uk2mtmp.png

06_81_mslp850.png

06_105_uk2mtmp.png

06_129_uk2mtmp.png

06_153_uk2mtmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

I think what does look more certain than whether it will turn significantly colder or not is that it will turn a lot wetter which given the fairly dry winter may not be such a bad thing. Alot of uncertainty remains if we are going too see any severe gales or not but the potential is there for deep lows to develop so a late winter deep low is certainly not out of the question.

Saw a poster talking about he would not rule out 20C being recorded on Monday, I think that is very unlikely but it would be quite an eye opener if it was recorded somewhere! To be fair, the real mild air in recent runs has been shifted a bit more further Southwards so parts of Scotland may have a cooler day than perhaps first thought but its one to keep an eye on.

One good thing about the potential of more Atlantic type weather is the sunshine amounts should increase somewhat as for the most part, its looking quite dull with sunshine at a premium to say the least.

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