Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Stozzy said:

Hence with the emoji . Sorry there was a bit of sycasm , it couldn't be any worse really 

Sorry, I don't look at them face things, the only one I use is the celebrating one when we get an 80's run come out.

[Frosty.]

Wow it's so quiet in here..I wonder why?..say no more

[Man With Beard]

EC32 really has lost its mojo - I mean mjo - recently 

No strong signal for northern blocking at month end ... will EC Monthly perform better as we head towards spring?

 

[bluearmy]

Seems that Exeter are putting some credence in the MJO signal towards month end judging by hammonds forecast. 

ens means not buying into  it a yet and GFS members varying run to run as to how many see it. As ian mentioned the other day, are the  models slow to react to the signal?. 

[knocker]

There is of course the other possibility that the composite analogue for phase 8 might not be reproduced, or at least adjusted, in this rather odd winter.

The 100mb chart is certainly not indicating any movement towards it.

Edited February 13, 2017 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

41 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Wow it's so quiet in here..I wonder why?..say no more

I wonder if we'll squeeze a 15C out of this cycle ... after all the recent cold it could feel slightly tropical.

Just flicked through the GFS 0.25, and see that 13C is quite possible every day for the next 10 days - that's quite something for February.

Edited February 13, 2017 by Man With Beard

[phil nw.]

I can't see anything notably cold towards month end although looking through the 12z gefs clusters thereis evidence of the jet coming south again with some signs of lower temperatures after this weeks warm up.

T300hrs groupings for example

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cslp&HH=300&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

and the mean chart

Of course at that range the mean smooths out the flow somewhat but some signs of a UK trough there. 

An even chance of some transient polar maritime shots as mobility increases in week 2 especially further north where some quite cold air is lurking.The overall pattern though just lacking enough amplification for anything more currently.

 

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I wonder if we'll squeeze a 15C out of this cycle ... after all the recent cold it could feel slightly tropical.

Just flicked through the GFS 0.25, and see that 13C is quite possible every day for the next 10 days - that's quite something for February.

Yes it's amazing, the last few weeks of this meteorological winter could be generally mild / very mild but also quite unsettled.

[winterof79]

Before we write winter's obituary,there is a signal in FI for ridging to our West and the trough dropping over or to the East of us.Will it gather pace?

Edited February 14, 2017 by winterof79

[bluearmy]

Whilst the mood music for another SSW increases for about 10/12 days time, the zonal wind flow on the last two ec, runs has shown an area of stronger flow around 50/ 60N 300hpa setting up in about a weeks time which slowly exerts itself further down towards day 10. this trend will mean it's unlikely we would see any blocking at a high enough latitude to advect cold enough uppers to nw Europe before months end. (Other than a very brief lee northerly toppler). I guess no one was expecting to see anything before then in any case but it would put paid to any hopes of a quick dash to colder conditions appearing from nowhere. 

[markw2680]

Hopefully it will become a trend to have something colder by the end of the month before real spring sets in but tbh I'm looking forward to a few milder days coming up. It would be typical to get high lat blocking during spring 

[Summer Sun]

Not a lot of rain on offer from this mornings UKMO away from the far north and west

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 6z, the cornish woodshed could record 12c today but for many it still feels a bit chilly although temps are higher than recently but during the rest of this week it's set to become mild, especially further south and west with temps as high as 13c in places. There also looks like being a lot of fine and bright weather with just bits and pieces of rain, mostly across NW uk.

Edited February 14, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Next weekend looks really pleasant on the 6z, really quite spring-like for most of the uk as the Azores high starts to ridge in.

Edited February 14, 2017 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

Let's keep this thread moving. There's some real spring eye-candy coming up around D10. This will get the daffodils out:

[ ** EDIT: REMOVED as changed with 06Z run!! ]

 

All depends where the ridge goes though, too much sting in the Atlantic and it will just topple back over us again:

Coldies could do with some Valentine's Day strat-love, really

Or some MJO love?

Edited February 14, 2017 by Man With Beard

[Matthew.]

The GFS 6z wants to bring another March 2012

 

[jvenge]

13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Let's keep this thread moving. There's some real spring eye-candy coming up around D10. This will get the daffodils out:

and into the teens widely on this one, maybe 16C/17C to the east of high ground (Summer Sun?)

It's only at around D13/D14 that the cold eye-candy starts to reappear - mainly though a mini-ridge to the west, this is probably the best one:

Snow for northern hills and sporadic sleet further south:

All depends where the ridge goes though, too much sting in the Atlantic and it will just topple back over us again:

Coldies could do with some Valentine's Day strat-love, really

Or some MJO love?

That Phase 8 looks quite pronounced. Any past stats to show how it compares to past records? I wouldn't have thought there would be too many to equal that.

[Gael_Force]

1 minute ago, jvenge said:

That Phase 8 looks quite pronounced. Any past stats to show how it compares to past records? I wouldn't have thought there would be too many to equal that.

A post somewhere back in the thread, said very few and only one which followed the same phase/timing. '88 if IIRC.

[jvenge]

Quite a few of the GEFS out into FI bring colder air to the UK, but not cold enough to bring the white stuff.

[Seasonality]

Just now, jvenge said:

Quite a few of the GEFS out into FI bring colder air to the UK, but not cold enough to bring the white stuff.

Signs of cooling further east in the GEFS further out are now making me raise an eyebrow. This seems to have been gradually increasing over recent runs and now both control and op have joined the shenanigans. Nothing more than academic interest though at this range. 

[jvenge]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Signs of cooling further east in the GEFS further out are now making me raise an eyebrow. This seems to have been gradually increasing over recent runs and now both control and op have joined the shenanigans. Nothing more than academic interest though at this range. 

Not interested. I want spring :-)

However, I do note the latest GEFS are bring the warm up ever closer to me and not sending it further out.

[Seasonality]

13 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Not interested. I want spring :-)

However, I do note the latest GEFS are bring the warm up ever closer to me and not sending it further out.

Spring would be nice  The last thing I want is a March 2013 redux where it was +14C on 6 March and then -14 on the 24th!

[Man With Beard]

58 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Not interested. I want spring :-)

However, I do note the latest GEFS are bring the warm up ever closer to me and not sending it further out.

This one would keep you and the majority on here happy

Generally, no sign of a serious -NAO yet

[bluearmy]

47 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This one would keep you and the majority on here happy

Generally, no sign of a serious -NAO yet

don't think so - cold rain for here and spring for moldova

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

3 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

The GFS 6z wants to bring another March 2012

 

Ahh March 2012, what a month! March is always an interesting month with regards to model watching, can give some mad charts! Considering the signal for blocking coming from the BBC's Weather for the Week Ahead Forecast for February's end, a March 2012 or 2013 scenario may not be out of the question.