Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[nick sussex]

Last chance saloon time is fast approaching for whether the winter will go out with a whimper or whether we could see a last gasp cold spell towards the end of the month.

After feeling very pessimistic yesterday my hopes are raised slightly today, we are beginning to see some renewed amplification upstream and with the PV and deeper cold to the ne just a chance that we could get enough amplification to pull that sw.

For those that have followed the mood swings of the MJO and the divergence between the main models forecasts and the velocity potential measure there has been a slow backtrack from the latter to at least take the MJO into a higher amplitude phase 8, still quicker than the former but compared to what its original forecast was this is quite a change:

The ECM ensembles do show a scattering around the 22nd Feb onwards, of course this winter has been very much one in which the ensembles have chopped and changed so of course best to not put too much stall in these but if we add the strat zonal mean wind forecast in:

What we're seeing is a recent increase in zonal mean winds and imminently a decrease and reversal, this in relation to the projected strat warming, we're not seeing that reversal at the 60N level but its likely the models will have increased the influence of the Atlantic and might now start to be seeing that slowing.

The issue in these situations and which is often the case is when you have the models wanting to move the PV towards Siberia, do they leave any smaller PV lobes behind, this complicates any forecast because  not only is it  a case of if but where that leftover PV might set up, for this reason I'd be dubious of the outputs showing the PV completely removed from the ne Canada until this is shown within T168hrs.

So I still think we need to temper any expectations as theres been a long list of disappointments this season, however I think theres a better chance today going forward than there was yesterday. No guarantees of course but we're just about still in the game for something colder popping up towards the latter part of the month.

 

 

 

[Chris74]

Hi i am newbie on here not sure if it's the right place but I have a question after reading a long range forcast on a Canadian weather site it states the weekly long range European forcast models show the Arctic air will be on the other side of the pole over the next few weeks so we are not looking any sustained outbreaks of Arctic air across southen Canada and the U.S so does this have any conecton to the possibility of something colder again towords the end of the month for the U.K again sorry if this is in the wrong place got a lot to learn. 

[summer blizzard]

Euro shows the Atlantic making stronger inroads into the north west from next weekend but quickly rebuilds the Azores High for the bulk of England which sticks around to the end of the run. 

GFS is a bit more aggressive but largely in unison. 

High pressure it seems will continue to rule the roost. 

[Daniel*]

Finally some coldie interest albeit in deep Fi

A hint of retrogression on GFS 12z an exciting end to winter, but you need to start somewhere. Northerly airstreams are at their most potent early March I think. The Arctic is traditionally at its coldest. Therefore it could be the most optimum time for getting low lying snow.

If we're going to see any meaningful cold it's going to come from the north IMO.

[Chris.]

Chances of this happening?

 

 

 

 

 

[Northern Sky]

13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Finally some coldie interest albeit in deep Fi

A hint of retrogression on GFS 12z an exciting end to winter, but you need to start somewhere. Northerly airstreams are at their most potent early March I think. The Arctic is traditionally at its coldest. Therefore it could be the most optimum time for getting low lying snow.

If we're going to see any meaningful cold it's going to come from the north IMO.

I agree, I've finished chasing Easterlies because even when they finally arrive they are rubbish. A bit IMBY but cold from the N/NW can deliver for my location at this time of year and fingers crossed there would perhaps even be a glimpse of blue sky instead of endless grey. Of course it's all far FI with the ubiquitous orange blob (no, not Donald Trump) dominating the 500hpa proceedings as usual before then.

[Dennis]

well do we see a very quick cold restore? 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

42 minutes ago, carsey said:

Chances of this happening?

 

 

 

 

 

Slim at best anything beyond t168 is open to change even t144 they struggle at times

[ArHu3]

4 minutes ago, numbnutts(uk) said:

however we can still get high level,s of snow fall well into march even at low levels,

I know, even into April but these events make me sad when all that beautiful snow turns to ugly sludge in a few hours. Final date for winter is March 12th(latest recorded ice day here)  and the models are almost there

Edited February 12, 2017 by ArHu3

[Tim Bland]

Looks like we are at that time in the year where every page is filled with posts / discussions about if it can snow / settle from mid Feb onwards.

 Re the MJO we were forecast phase 8 for this week so it seems as fickle as NWP. Some will remember Steve Murrs forecast for the next cold spell to start in 5 days time and this was based on the strat winds / phase 8 amplitude. I expect he will concede that this is unlikely now if he comes on in the next few days. We have seen a couple of GFS runs out of the last few days that have amplification of the Atlantic around day 12+ but there is no strong signal for this. Fingers crossed we can build on this in the coming days. I'd be happy with 1 day of lying snow this season to take the kids out sledging. 

[ArHu3]

19 minutes ago, numbnutts(uk) said:

lol i would be happy just to see some settle after this waste of space spell.

This morning but they are gone already

 

 

 

(And to keep sort of on topics ecmwf only saw this 12 or 24h at most ahead)

Edited February 12, 2017 by ArHu3

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Winter is almost over, the sun will be getting too strong very soon for any real cold or prolonged snow

The increasing sun strength isn't so much an issue it is indeed if you want it to stick around. As you go deeper into March you need something more exceptional, especially by late March to offset the natural rise. Some of the most notable snowfalls seen in the UK have took place in March. In Bedford their greatest snowfalls seen came in March 52cm in 1947, 35cm in 1970 said a fellow tweeter. Significant wintry hazards are still fairly easily achievable with the right synoptics in early March, the end to metrological winter does not suggest "winter" as a whole is done with us. Talking about prolonged snow? I assume you mean keeping snow on the ground well that is true, in 2013 however that proved otherwise in places, drifted compacted snow lingering into May for some northern uplands. I'm sure many on here will be content with a good snow event, even if it's gone without a trace after 24 hours. I know I would be. Just go out and make the most of it while you can. I do not think it is time to hoist the white flag yet on winter 16/17, it certainly feels near to it. Hold in there... 

[Matthew.]

ECM 12z keeps HP to the south-west for the following week

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows our coldish easterly spell on it's last legs now and it will gradually be turning less cold / milder as winds will be veering more SEly and then Sly and eventually more SWly then Wly during the week ahead. It's not a completely settled week coming up but there will be plenty of dry weather with sunny spells but also some rain from time to time with the driest and brightest weather further s / se closest to high pressure and the most unsettled weather across NW Britain, especially later in the period with a hint of something colder trying to work south into scotland from T+240 hours.

Edited February 12, 2017 by Frosty.

[nick sussex]

Good agreement between the ECM and GFS, a horror show for coldies for the next 9 days and then signs of a more favourable NH pattern developing. The ECM might get there a little sooner, both have that Canadian high developing which is important. I'm afraid theres going to be some xxx rated outputs for the next few days and its really down to those last few days of February to see whether we can see a last gasp of winter. If anything pops up sooner great but I think realistically if theres to be something developing its around the 23rd onwards.

Edited February 12, 2017 by nick sussex

[Lincs Observation]

5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro shows the Atlantic making stronger inroads into the north west from next weekend but quickly rebuilds the Azores High for the bulk of England which sticks around to the end of the run. 

GFS is a bit more aggressive but largely in unison. 

High pressure it seems will continue to rule the roost. 

Well its been a pretty awful winter so much promise yet never really quite getting there, I do hope your comment above is a glimpse toward what spring or even summer may bring in relation to an early trend, But i think we all know now in our hearts that any cold spell now will not rescue this winter and will instead consign it to the back of the bookcase.

LO

[bobbydog]

27 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good agreement between the ECM and GFS, a horror show for coldies for the next 9 days and then signs of a more favourable NH pattern developing. The ECM might get there a little sooner, both have that Canadian high developing which is important. I'm afraid theres going to be some xxx rated outputs for the next few days and its really down to those last few days of February to see whether we can see a last gasp of winter. If anything pops up sooner great but I think realistically if theres to be something developing its around the 23rd onwards.

I think the best way to look at it, is that we have 'lucked out' again this winter for prolonged snowy spells. Some have done ok (albeit briefly) and nearly all of us have seen flakes falling and even a covering. It has been disappointing but as we fall into what appears to be a deep solar minimum, the next few winters should give us a much better shot.

Back to now though, personally, i'm resigned to my original thoughts. However..... there is always the possibility (and it wouldn't show in the models if the possibility didnt exist) that we could get a little consolation prize before winter's end-

You never know... 

Edited February 12, 2017 by bobbydog

[Guest]

WINTER 2016/17 FULL REPORT No. 13 WITH FEBRUARY 12th INPUT

A Dose of Reality – The Search for a Proper Cold Spell Continues

Last report on page 105 of the previous (January 25th) Winter Model Thread

Brief Review Of The Last Week and the Current Position:

I covered the development of last week’s cold spell extensively in my “Daily European Temperature and Pressure Watch” reports. My final report in this series was posted this morning as the deep cold pool stalled over western Russia and eastern Europe. Yet again, there was huge potential for a long fetch easterly which barely materialised.  The cold arrived slightly ahead of schedule and the Scandinavian HP became even more intense that predicted. For a short while it was centred in what has normally been considered an ideal position. Unfortunately, its orientation became a problem. To tap more directly into any deeper cold we needed an east to west shape. The HP stubbornly maintained a strong south or south-eastward ridge.  This allowed less cold air to intrude to its east coming off the warmer seas. This stopped the deep cold in its tracks.

Much of central and western Europe did become pretty cold for several days but the cold over the UK (surface cold, uppers and dew points) were nowhere near as low as had been expected just a few days earlier. Snow became marginal both in terms of actually falling and whether it settled. Well at least a few of you had some snow but many, like me in south Devon, saw a few hours of very light snow that barely settled except at slightly higher elevations.  It must be said that conditions were tantalisingly close to being quite good. This is just another piece of really bad luck for UK snow lovers.

If that wasn’t enough, the cold spell is being cut short and now looks set to end during the next day or two. Milder air has moved into much of France as can be seen on the charts below which include much of England too.

              France Surface Temperatures at 1348                                              France Surface Temperatures  “Live”

                                                                       

 

The first chart "should" be close to today’s maximum temperatures. UPDATE (1930) - Much of the UK has remained between 1c and 3c (slightly lower than forecast) until a late warm up early this evening and temperature (in the Live" chart) have risen several degrees in south-east England.

There is currently (1400 at the time of writing) a band of mostly light snow across much of Wales and northern England moving slowly westwards – so not quite done yet. This may give a covering over any higher ground. More of this is falling as snow than forecast simply due to the slightly lower surface temperatures and the dew points at or just below 0c. The mostly -4c uppers are cold enough under these “continental” flow conditions. Most of southern England has now become mostly dry with a slightly more direct continental flow with a shorter sea crossing but with less cold air set to move in this evening.

The Short Term Position Through to Next Weekend:

Most of the (0z) models show the southerly winds bringing in the milder air from tomorrow and during the rest of this week. The HP will be close by. Some models show this closer to or right over us later on while others move it into eastern Europe. We may well still see some night frosts but with maximum temperatures rising to average, if not slightly above under probably quite sunny conditions initially. So, pleasant week ahead with perhaps some quite large diurnal temperature ranges.  Other models suggest stronger winds and a little rain mid-week before a direr spell after that.  At this stage the cold block looks like it will be slowly pushed back east out of much of Europe but with the HP to our east, it will yet again not be too far away (not that I’m suggesting that it will return any time soon – but still one to watch for later on).

Let’s take a look at the position for next Saturday with one of my cross-model checks.

Northern Hemisphere Pressure for Saturday February 18th at 0100 (with adjusted times to provide an accurate comparison):

                  GFS 0z T+144                                  ECM 0z T+144                               UKMO   0z T+144                              GEM 0z T+144                                NAVGEM 0z T+144   

         

        JMA 12z Feb 11th T+156                 GEFS ens mean 6z T+138            Met O Fax 12z T+120 for 1200 Thur Feb 16th (latest available) 

                               

Although all the models show HP close to the UK there are some quite large divergences.  GFS and JMA have it to our south from the Azores ridging across into southern  Europe with the UK bathed in a west-south-westerly flow. The ECM is quite similar but with part of the HP to our east ridging north towards Scandinavia. The UKMO has the whole HP block a little further north with one cell over southern England and  the near continent.  GEM and NAVGEM are similar to the UKMO.  The GEFS ens mean is somewhere between the ECM and the UKMO. The differences will dictate whether we continue to see a dry continental feed probably with milder and quite sunny days but possibly still frosty by night or rather less settled and generally mild conditions with a little rain (or somewhere in between). 

Into Week 2 and Beyond:

Not surprisingly there continues to be quite a divergence across the models. I will not look into any details this far out (D7 onwards) but I will consider the broader pattern. Let’s have a look at the Jet Stream.

Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream – Current Position:

                   GFS 12z T+6  

 

The main arm currently continues to take a very southerly track through North Africa and well south of Europe. The northern arm continues to be weak and fragmented. It takes a circular route up and around into north Scandinavia and then returns south and finally sharply west into northern Scotland.

Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream for Sat 18th Feb – 0100 (with adjusted times to provide an accurate comparison):

                GFS 0z  T+138                                     NAVGEM 6z +138                        GEFS ens mean 12z T+138                JMA 12z Feb 11th T+156

                 

Moving on to D6, let’s have look at several cross model Jet Stream charts.  The  models still have the southern arm on a similar very far south track. The GFS has the northern  arm just starting to strengthen. It is still meandering but a with a little more west to east momentum towards and just reaching the UK. The GEFS ens mean is similar but with the northern arm not quite reaching the UK. The JMA has the main part of the northern arm swinging south before it reaches us and a more fragmented part moving northwards over Ireland. The NAVGEM has the weakest northern arm pushing to the south well before it reaches the UK. There’s a small fragmented portion moving from Greenland towards Scandinavia. Overall, if the models cannot agree on the strength and direction of the northern arm of the Jet Stream at only D6 then the finer detail will be even more diverse.

Without going into any detail, I have seen a few comments on here from several of our more experienced posters, that the Jet Stream is only likely to fire up again very briefly prior to another prolonged period of weakness and meandering. The only common signal would seem to be the continuing pretty strong southern arm on a particularly far south track.  This may well be connected to the delayed but still anticipated final warming influence.  The models have still not got a handle on this with some runs showing a change with a shift of the PV eastwards into Siberia but only to reverse that change in the following run.

For coldies we are looking for HP to build around Greenland, LP to push down into Scandinavia and a broad Arctic air stream in between! Could we have one final bite of the cherry? Even if we do see this pattern develop, a northerly might not be all that potent and I cover this in my extensive Arctic temperature coverage later on. Ideally, a more north-easterly flow (with far less travel over the warmer seas) would provide a greater chance of proper cold and quite possibly some decent snowfall. These air streams are quite rare but we had a great example in March 2013 following the SSW in that year. So, possible but how likely?  Another easterly is still not out of the question. The cold block may still be around in western Asia and might get a top up and a proper westerly push – third time lucky perhaps?  Of course, Winter might already be over but we still have a chance.  Some will say that if it’s delayed any further we will already be into March and we do not want a cold start to Spring. I have my particular take on cold spells in early March and I ask you to keep an open mind while you read through the next paragraph. 

The old saying is March “comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb”. This is probably related more to wind than temperature and in any event the reverse conditions can easily occur. Overall,  a March with average mean monthly temperatures might disguise a very cold start and a very mild or warm end. There are some great examples of this, none more so than March 1965. That month saw a very cold and often quite snowy first half with record low night minima being set for March. After mid-month things warmed up. Towards the last few days, after a touch of Spring it became summer-like! The record high temperature for March was set of 25c (it has since been equalled but not surpassed) with a few consecutive days above 20c. Okay that was an extreme example. We have to accept that the trend in many recent Winters has been for warmer first halves and (sometimes) colder conclusions.  This is partly due to the Jet Stream and PV generally being at their strongest around and just after the December solstice and into January and then these often weaken considerably during February (any Stratospheric Warming events usually occur in the latter part of Winter too). With warmer sea surface temperatures generally these days, this can create greater thermal contrasts and fire up the Jet Stream even further in early Winter. There will always be exceptions but if this pattern continues, why don’t we just  accept it (I know that we have no choice but it’s a mind set) and look for most of our coldest weather far more often in the final third of Winter and occasionally into early “meteorological” Spring. The equinox is not until March 21st which is when the official Spring season gets underway. If this becomes a more regular pattern, mother nature will start to adjust, although the extreme examples like last Winter with a record warm December and a cold early Spring are not desirable. There will be plenty of time for things to warm up later into Spring.

Now on to my routine coverage.

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis:

The last full monthly report was published last week on February 7th. This is a fascinating but quite distressing read.  Please note that the current ice extent map and the comparison chart to the mean are updated daily and are always of interest. Here’s the link for the latest report and updates:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

This chart shows the current extent of the sea ice (as on February 11th) in relation to the 30 year means.

             

Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

COMMENT:  (relating to the chart above when it was showing February 11th data - it updates automatically each afternoon):

The “rate of recovery” during December was very close to a record but this was insufficient to avoid the overall extent still being at record lows. Since then, the position has got steadily worse. There was a continued recovery (with several pauses) during January but sea ice growth has stalled for the last two weeks and even receded slightly at a time when the Arctic is historically at its coldest. The overall ice extent remains well below the previous record low set during the  2012-13 Winter.  Now, we learn that sea ice extent in Antarctica  (late summer there) is also at record lows. Overall, the world’s sea ice is currently well below previous record lows.

This rapidly accelerating loss is extremely worrying and will have all sorts of adverse impacts on the world’s weather patterns. It may well go some way to explaining why we struggle to get any prolonged cold spells into our neck of the woods. This is an extremely complex subject which many experts are finding difficult to explain. Despite the background of global warming, let’s hope that the recent trend of greatly accelerated ice loss proves to be a temporary pattern.

SPECIAL NOTE FOR THOSE INTERESTED:  A discussion has been started on the in-depth thread regarding the record low Arctic Sea ice extent and  how this might be impacting on the broader weather patterns and perhaps creating greater challenges for the models. I have just drawn attention to the extraordinary Arctic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies which explains why the ice just cannot form in the Baring and Kara Seas in particular.  Here’s the link:  https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/87120-in-depth-chilled-out-model-discussion/?page=2#comment-3546542

Arctic Oscillation (AO) 14 Day Ensemble Chart:

Here's the link to the daily charts:       http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

...and here’s the current chart which updates automatically each afternoon:

      

Note for newbies: The AO index reflects the amount of HLB in the Arctic. A positive +AO reflects very little HLB and a strongly +AO reflects no HLB anywhere in the Arctic. A negative –AO reflects some HLB and a strongly –AO reflects substantial HLB with more intense high pressure and/or more extensive HLB in various parts of the Arctic. This index produced by NOAA is based upon GFS model output and will fluctuate in line with that. Although ECM produce similar data based upon their own output this is not one of their “free-to-view” charts for public consumption.

COMMENT (relating to the AO chart above when it was showing February 12th data - it updates automatically each afternoon): 

The Arctic Oscillation is currently negative but later this week all the ensemble members go quite strongly positive. Then after a couple more days they trend back to neutral with some members going into negative territory again later in week 2 but a smaller number remain slightly positive. This switchback approach, in my opinion, shows the great model uncertainty rather than truly alternating periods of brief HLB and then less HLB. It reflects the GFS model.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 14 Day Ensemble Chart:

Here's the link to the daily charts:                 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml (click on the small chart there)

...and here’s the current chart which updates automatically each afternoon:

      

Note for newbies: A neutral NAO index reflects the close to average state of the mean sea level pressure patterns or the “climatological” norm in the North Atlantic. This would equate to the anomalous high pressure in the south, particularly around the Azores and low pressure stretching from off the eastern USA seaboard in a wide band running north-eastwards to the east of Newfoundland, east of Greenland and through Iceland. A positive +NAO occurs when these patterns are stronger than usual (eg: the Azores high is more intense or more widespread and/or the Iceland low is deeper or more widespread than usual). A negative –NAO reflects a weak Azores high and/or less intense Icelandic low pressure. A strongly –NAO would reflect a reversal of the normal patterns with relatively low pressure in the Azores and high pressure further north towards Iceland. A “west based –NAO” (talked about recently) is when the pressure is higher than usual in the western Atlantic such as around the Newfoundland area). An “east based –NAO would indicate higher pressure than usual in our part of the Atlantic. This index produced by NOAA is based upon GFS model output and will fluctuate in line with that. Although ECM produce similar data based upon their own output this is not one of their “free-to-view” charts for public consumption.

COMMENT (relating to the NAO chart above when it was showing February 12th data - it updates automatically each afternoon):

The NAO takes a rather similar path to the AO but in less dramatic style. It is currently slightly negative but quickly goes into slightly to moderate positive territory. After D7 most ensemble members trend down again towards neutral. Again, a mixed and uncertain pattern but with no pronounced signal.

MJO Ensemble charts:

Here are today's MJO ensemble charts for the big 4 (all updated on February 12th) + Kyle MacRitchie’s modified chart (by request following recent discussions) with the live links below should you wish to check any future changes: 

           UKMO   (7 day forecast):                 ECM (14 day forecast):            NCEP/GEFS (14 day forecast):                 JMA (9 day forecast):            Kyle MacRitchie (30 day forecast):

                        

 

UKMO:     http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ukme.shtml

ECM:       http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml

GEFS:        http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

JMA:         http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/jman.shtml

Kyle MacRitchie:   https://weatherandvines.com/?page_id=140                  and his explanatory notes and further guidance:     https://weatherandvines.com/?page_id=128

COMMENT (relating to charts showing February 12th data - they update automatically each afternoon): 

Well this continues to be puzzling (as our experts have all said). The big 4 and Kyle all start the MJO off in phase 7 at good amplitude and mostly go into phase 8 at very high amplitude. Then they diversify. UKMO into phase 1 at high but reducing amplitude.  ECM similar but then heading towards COD and phase 2 at low amplitude. GEFS (wow!) - as ECM initially but entering COD and quickly re-emerging into phase 7 – potentially good news if it ever verified as it might coincide with the final strat warming event or it might just reflect that model's particularly high uncertainty!  JMA as before but then into phase 1 at reducing amplitude.  Kyle MacRitchie progresses through to phase 1 at good amplitude and on to phase 2 around 4th March. Two of his ensemble members move into the COD and two move on to phase 3, one at lower amplitude but the other at increasing amplitude.  Under normal circumstances, I would say, very favourable for assisting in some protracted HLB but these are far from normal circumstances so - over to our experts for a deeper analysis!

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover:

I show animations for snow cover and sea ice changes. These are produced by the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  When you go to their site you can change the date range and go back over 10 years. You can change the speed and pause on any particular day. These are brilliant, very informative charts and great to play around with. I’ve have re-set the links below to show the last 2 weeks from January 28th  to February 11th but you can change these again on the site:

a) Animated Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Changes (updated by NOAA February 11th):

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/nh/20170128-20170211

....and here is their current chart:

b) Animated Europe and Asia Day Snow Cover (updated by NOAA February 11th):

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/ea/20170128-20170211

....and here is their current chart:

BRIEF COMMENT: 

Little overall change during the last week. Part of central and much of eastern and south-eastern European is still snow covered (slightly receding in recent days). There continues to be well above average snow cover over northern, west and central Asia. Scandinavia is fully snow covered, except the south of Sweden (the high central plateaus usually have pretty complete snow cover for most of an average winter). The extensive snow cover over North America had declined during the recent much milder conditions but the north-eastern states had quite a dumping a couple of days ago.

Current Arctic Regional Surface Temperatures:

GEFS ens mean– Northern Hemisphere Current Temperatures for February 12th 1900 (12z – 1300 T+6):

and here’s the link to live charts if you wish to view future changes (updated 4 times a day):

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=1&carte=1

Here is my selection of Arctic Regional Temperatures:

The the previous readings from my last full report are shown in brackets alongside

North Pole:       -20c to -28c   (-20c to -24c).

Baring Sea/High Arctic:    -4c to -20c (-16c to -24c).

Scandinavia:  south  -4c to -8c  (little change);  north  mostly 0c ( -8c).

Northern Siberia:    -20c to -40c (-32c to -40c).

North West Russia:     -4c to -8c (-16c to -20c)

North-east Europe:     -4c to -8c   (0c to -4c).

Greenland:           -16c to -32c   (little change)

Canadian Arctic:     -20c to -36c (-24c to -32c).

Alaska:      -12c to -40c (-12c to -20c).

Please note:  For land masses I have tried to focus on readings away from the coasts and away from any mountainous areas.   You can follow the trends by looking at the latest data at any time from now on. It is vital to note the time of day to take account of daytime/night time variations. So for like for like comparisons, for example the 1900 charts for each day should be available to view from the 12z (T+6) updates which are published around 1600 to 1700 or about 4 to 5 hours later.

Svalbard Daily “Maximum” Temperature Forecast for 10 Days:

Here are the links to the 3 Svalbard stations that I am monitoring together with a summary of D1, D5 and D9 values:

Central/West Svalbard – Longyearbyen 28 m asl:   

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/forecast.pdf

February 13th   -8c;           February 17th    -16 c;            February 21st   -14c.

North-West Svalbard – Ny-Alesund:  

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Ny-Ålesund/forecast.pdf

February 13th    -9c;           February 17th     -20c;            February 21st   -17c.

Central South Svalbard – Sveagruva:   

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Sveagruva/forecast.pdf

February 13th     -8 c;           February 17th     -21c;            February 21st  -19c.   

Please note that the links above will update automatically at frequent intervals throughout the day. They are the Norway met office’s predictions. We need to be aware that these are only a forecast that is subject to change and I am told that the Arctic surface temperature forecasts are not completely reliable even at quite short range. 

BRIEF COMMENT:

Temperatures had risen just above freezing during the last 10 days or so with the warmest period of the winter. Thankfully, there is some better news with temperatures tumbling again down towards their 30 year means.  If this trend continues, it may spark a new recovery in the sea ice extent and at the very least prevent the recent reversal. To put the above figures into context, here is a link to the main Longyearbyen site:  

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

This shows monthly means and actual highest/lowest temperatures recorded during this winter and goes back further. Svalbard has been seeing “maximum” temperatures often running at 8c to 10c above their long term average throughout most of 2016. This has been the pattern for several years and is reflective of the warming Arctic and record low sea ice cover.

Final Comment:

Yet another very mixed and uncertain outlook. For the fourth time this Winter, I’ll say “can we finally get a decent cold spell underway?” I do hope that I can produce a more encouraging report next week and the possibilities become probabilities and the probabilities actually verify. We coldies and snowies can live in hope!

Next Update:

My next full weekly report should be on Sunday evening, February 19th.

 

Edited February 12, 2017 by Guest
Correcting typos and to ensure that all the links and charts work properly.

[A.J]

off topic posts removed....a few people really need to think about what they're about to post before hitting the 'send' button

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All. Slim pickings for Winter lovers in the next ten day it seems although both ecm and gfs pronounce a change from the north possible by day ten. Yes some milder weather in the days ahead although by later in the week a ridge more picticularly for southern Britain could well produce some interesting Diurnal temperatures with some mild days and some very cold nights under clear skies ,but the issue will be cloud cover......

[KyleHenry]

2 hours ago, Dennis said:

well do we see a very quick cold restore? 

 

 

Yes I can definitely agree with that. The next window of opportunity evolves in 12 days time. Approximately 25th Feb. 

ECMWF and GFS forecasts coupling between Strat and Trop. 

Warming event displaces Strat PV off default position and the models shows Trop PV following suit in vacating  Greenland. 

There can be no heights here unless Trop PV displaces and allows WAA to have a route upwards. 

Result could be similar to 2013 event, only it will be 3 weeks earlier in evolution. 

55% probability of success.

 

[nick sussex]

I'll be haunting this thread till early March, then I go into my semi-hibernation mode. Loving the extremes I tend to post less when they're less possible. March can be a funny month, even more so down here with some large variations in temps. I've had mid twenties in early March and also a few ice days, for the UK even with that moderating effect of the sea around its still possible to get some good snow, its more about getting the right synoptics. Of course there are certain things you can't have this late, inversions aren't going to happen and easterlies from the Continent unless they come in tow with a PV chunk injecting deep cold into the circulation won't deliver.

The best sourced air generally as you head into early March is from the ne/n, the thing of course with any northerlies at this stage is you don't get stuck  with showers just on windward coasts, inland convection normally kicks in. In March timing is quite important, I remember when I was still living in West Sussex we had a few northerlies and some heavy convective snow showers which managed to last long enough towards evening, then clear skies saw temps drops quickly preserving the snow.

Of course if you have low dew points a decent snow cover  can last in the shade during the day so as much as we'd all have preferred to see some good snow in the heart of winter, we can't turn the clock back and can just hope for something interesting late Feb/early March.

 

[damianslaw]

Bear with me on this... Looking at the GFS and ECM this evening, everything has a 12 hour clock appearance to it.. in that right now we are at 3' o clock with an easterly wind, each day here on sees the clock move on one hour, tomorrow, 4 o clock, SE wind, Tues, SSE wind 5 o clock etc but the clock slows down so to speak in about 5/6 days floundering around the 7/8 o clock mark, with a SW flow, but then perhaps hitting the 10 o clock mark in 10 days time with a NW wind, by this logic we might see 12 o clock strike before the month is out with a northerly.. will it then get back to 3 o clock through early March... or just head back on itself... mmm northerlies do have a habit of appearing at the tail end of Feb and early March and can pack of a very wintry cold snowy punch.

 

Edited February 12, 2017 by damianslaw

[Summer Sun]

Just when you think that high might shift south it manages to stay put so away from the far north it should be mostly dry and mild till at least D9 or 10

[Paceyboy]

Perhaps coldies should take a break and maybe view the models again Friday morning, seeing as we shall most likely be in a period of milder weather for at least 4 or 5 days (also projection-wise)

Positives to be had by saving on heating bills, I wont complain. 10-12c in the day looking likely in south UK midweek onwards.

Wouldn't it be amazing to have an early March potent easterly with sub -10c uppers and low thickenesses, the power of the sun, the contrast between North Sea SST and a deep cold pool aloft. It would be fanstastic to see some proper convection.

Its not over until mid March for me personally.