Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[Cheshire Freeze]

28 minutes ago, kumquat said:

CC but doesn't that show us a bit too far out of the pattern? Weakish low height anomalies in the middle Med puts us pretty much where we are now. I'd like more of a smiley mouth and a flat nose.

Corresponding 850's anomaly

Here is the corresponding run from 24 hours ago

Note the signal for Greenland warmth and our cold plunge from the NE 

Edited February 11, 2017 by CreweCold

[kumquat]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Corresponding 850's anomaly

Interesting warm anomaly over G but it's small, dense, and tightly packed. All surrounding areas can swamp it by orders of magnitude, but we all know they won't.

[IDO]

So no surprises. My expectation of this "snowy spell" was low bearing in mind the repeated pattern of this winter, a short snowy shot every month, that in the SE was rather meh.

Despite all the background signals the over riding factors have been the PV mobility and for the UK the Azores high/ridge. The PV has killed any HLB by keeping it in the mid latitudes as it moves from Canada to Siberia and back again. This propensity has meant the omnipresent Azores has sent energy into any potential Atlantic sector HLB and sunk it.

The background MJO or forcing has failed to disrupt the pattern long enough to force a reset, hence the next two weeks will be wiped off from wintry potential (apart from possibly a passing low bringing colder uppers for a few hours). 

At the end of the GFS (D16) the mean has the PV lobe over NE Canada so maybe cooler zonal, but at the end of February that will not cut it for us in the south. From late Sunday to the end of the run the south well above average uppers till D14:

My summation of this winter is even when signals are good, and the pros were spot on, the Atlantic has been very much a bit player the last three months, we do need other factors to play ball for the UK to benefit from a snowy picture. Yes the SE had a week or so of continental cold, but cold for cold sake has never been my mantra, rather cold as a foundation for snow. I have no interest in a cool Spring so some on hilltops get transient snow; here's hoping that we don't have a repeat of last year's Spring, we have seen once a pattern gets entrenched it can be a nuisance for weeks and weeks.

As for the next two weeks maybe some warmth with temps above 12c and with the sun, could be very pleasant from Wednesday for a week or so.

[Summer Sun]

High pressure dominates this morning's UKMO

[stainesbloke]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

High pressure dominates this morning's UKMO

Again, wonderful charts for summer, right Synoptics wrong season as per usual! Hopefully this high pressure will bring some sunshine? 

[snowsummer]

What is this 'VP200' please?  

[carinthian]

Horrible mild chart this one at 168t EUR ( North Atlantic flow ) Sourced out of Morocco heading for Northern England, its going to be dank on those Lancashire hills ( good job Pendle Ski Club) have an artificial ski slope. Still hope the models could easily switch to a colder scenario by day 10 as had been the case shown to happen a lot this winter . Remarkable quite North Atlantic , so a shift to colder in the models can soon show up again.

C

Edited February 11, 2017 by carinthian

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ens remains steady past the peak on Tuesday generally around +3 till the end

[Faronstream]

Horrific and provocating charts from both GFS and ECM 0Z, winter is definently over for this season with charts like these. As long as the mid latitude blocking continues we can never get the cold and snow down to our latitudes. We have to get a extremely cold march like 2013 if you want snow cover for more than a few days

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Horrible mild chart this one at 168t EUR ( North Atlantic flow ) Sourced out of Morocco heading for Northern England, its going to be dank on those Lancashire hills ( good job Pendle Ski Club) have an artificial ski slope. Still hope the models could easily switch to a colder scenario by day 10 as had been the case shown to happen a lot this winter . Remarkable quite North Atlantic , so a shift to colder in the models can soon show up again.

C

Looks like another flip on the way looking at this latest GFS run. Powers up the jet into the British Isles for a a time and then Atlantic runs out of steam with possible Mid Atlantic height rises on the cards for the end of February. Some stonking long fetch of cold air  heading for the far north of the British Isles. We will see ! But as I say in the above post , flips have been a feature on models this winter 144- 240 t with Atlantic zonal power over extended in these charts.

 C

 

[karyo]

1 minute ago, carinthian said:

Looks like another flip on the way looking at this latest GFS run. Powers up the jet into the British Isles for a a time and then Atlantic runs out of steam with possible Mid Atlantic height rises on the cards for the end of February. Some stonking long fetch of cold air  heading for the far north of the British Isles. We will see ! But as I say in the above post , flips have been a feature on models this winter 144- 240 t with Atlantic zonal power over extended in these charts.

 C

 

This kind of fits with the stratospheric picture which shows a displaced vortex to western Siberia.

I hope something happens as I am not ready for spring.

[Summer Sun]

It's only 15 days away

Would could possibly go wrong

[numbnutts(uk)]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

It's only 15 days away

Would could possibly go wrong

lol let me guess 

[Gael_Force]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

It's only 15 days away

Would could possibly go wrong

It's what I would expect to see when looking at stratosphere and MJO phase 8 lag..... what interference will be mooted this time when/if it doesn't appear.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Gael_Force said:

It's what I would expect to see when looking at stratosphere and MJO phase 8 lag..... what interference will be mooted this time when/if it doesn't appear.

This is the problem for me. Too many variables at play that can scupper cold for the UK. 

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

It's only 15 days away

Would could possibly go wrong

Lol.  Even at that time frame there is a warmer sector working South ha ha. 

[Hammer50]

No going to get caught up with this wait for 48hrs even then they get it wrong.

[comet]

The stratosphere profile as we move towards the end of the month looks very similar to that from the last warming. it therefore  would not be a giant leap of faith to suppose that we may see another troposphere response similar to the split we have seen from the last one. The gfs model is starting to show much more interesting synoptics in the extended range.

[Smiler1709]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

It's only 15 days away

Would could possibly go wrong

Story of the winter there mate, horrid to forecast and do disappointing to get really good charts only for them to be water down or completely flip when the time gets nearer. I believe this is our last cold snap for the winter albeit a few frosty nights. 

 

Really disappointed but that's the draw back with living in the U.K. The mid latitude block has absolutely battered our severe cold hopes this season hopefully it's the form horse going into summer. 

[Summer Sun]

06z mean heading below zero during the final few days of winter

We should see around a week of milder temps before hand

[mcweather]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

It's only 15 days away

Would could possibly go wrong

judging by most British winters just about everything. lol

Edited February 11, 2017 by mcweather

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

13 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Very good chance that the latter stages of GFS FI and ECM at 240 hours are starting to pick up a signal. The end of Feb into March has been picked up by a few on here for the potential to be of some interest.

Meanwhile CFS continues its seemingly ever present March signal...

I make that at least a solid month of this model showing the same scenario now (bar the odd run here and there as it runs 4 times a day). I bet the NOAA averaged charts look very tasty 

Certainly potential.....despite being WB at present

The 6z looks a good run back end lets just see if we can get the trend 

[Frosty.]

Looking forward to it warming up next week, it will feel pleasant in the sunshine and lighter winds, temps should be up to 10-12c by midweek

Edited February 11, 2017 by Frosty.

[sunnijim]

 

On Saturday, February 11, 2017 at 11:03, Summer Sun said:

It's only 15 days away

Would could possibly go wrong

At the risk of mentioning that Matt Hugo Tweet in the wrong thread....It would appear that him saying 'too soon' when the blocking to our NW was shown on the 17th held a clue as to what the professionals were thinking.

They might of seen this potential a few days ago for the very last week of February.

The last of Winters cold spells going out on a real high? Third time lucky perhaps!

[summer blizzard]

Euro suggests that high pressure will hold strong until at least day 8 and given this winter, i'd not be shocked if that was pushed back. 

If the cloud breaks towards the end of the week, it could feel quite pleasant indeed. 

Winter is over.