Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[mb018538]

Good post Tamara, echo what others have said - the input is like gold dust. I learn so much from people like yourself that take the time to construct long posts explaining how everything is evolving.

In that aspect, and the fact that the vast majority on here long for the memorable cold spell during winter, it unfairly sets people up to be swiped at....as you are only telling us how we could arrive at the outcome.

Anyway, back to the 6z. Broadly similar to the 00z. Milder further south, with some cooler air spilling into the north around the high out to D10.

[Doctor96]

Well , after the excitement and hype on here , today in the north east we have rain. Yes -10 uppers but rain . I Recall the abuse I took when suggesting we need at least -9 uppers for snow to be told it can snow at -6 . We have to deal in reality , this cold spell is pretty poor unfortunately , not below zero at night and at 3 during day about 1 c too warm . All sad . 

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, Doctor96 said:

Well , after the excitement and hype on here , today in the north east we have rain. Yes -10 uppers but rain . I Recall the abuse I took when suggesting we need at least -9 uppers for snow to be told it can snow at -6 . We have to deal in reality , this cold spell is pretty poor unfortunately , not below zero at night and at 3 during day about 1 c too warm . All sad . 

But it is rather more complex than just the 850hpa temps, it can snow even with say -1 850hpa temps if other factors come into play and vice versa as you have rightly highlighted. 

 

[Matthew.]

8 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

Well , after the excitement and hype on here , today in the north east we have rain. Yes -10 uppers but rain . I Recall the abuse I took when suggesting we need at least -9 uppers for snow to be told it can snow at -6 . We have to deal in reality , this cold spell is pretty poor unfortunately , not below zero at night and at 3 during day about 1 c too warm . All sad . 

Are you sure? I might look like rain but ice pellets do. Anyway -10 uppers here and precipitation snow. I suppose if its very light its quite possible a spot might get through.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO 850's for next Wednesday back up a change to something milder

 

[A.J]

4 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

All well and good blue although it's not a good synoptic pattern though is it? This wkend aside I mean. We have a compact vortex moving to siberia, and one massive euro high with southerlies. It's been an epic fail yet again and people use the same old words every time "potential"

I would say the only bit with potential is this wkend, yet the only day with meaningfull instability is the day milder air floats over from an easterly. You litterelly couldn't make it up in this country it's by far the worst place in the world given our latitude for snow and the more time I spend here the more frustrating it's becoming. 4 years now with no snow which in itself is actually laughable and easily worse than any of the milder snowless winters in the past. It's been a lot worse even than 2006-7 when the likes of Ian Brown made his theories up. But now I'm thinking he was probably onto something because bar that group of winters between 08-13 he is right. 

Anyway this will last 2 minutes in here like everything else does that that is slightly controversial why the hell have a weather forum if we can't have a proper debate occasionally.

By all means, start a thread and debate away ,,,,,,,,,,The bit about 'slightly controversial' is incorrect TBF, there's big difference between having slightly controversial views and being off topic for this particular thread

This thread though is for current model output discussion, nothing more, nothing less.........anything else belongs in a different thread, so I hope that clarifies things

[FetchCB]

18 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

Well , after the excitement and hype on here , today in the north east we have rain. Yes -10 uppers but rain . I Recall the abuse I took when suggesting we need at least -9 uppers for snow to be told it can snow at -6 . We have to deal in reality , this cold spell is pretty poor unfortunately , not below zero at night and at 3 during day about 1 c too warm . All sad . 

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/71 - Synoptic Scale Modifaction

 

I suspect that with it being a slack easterly the dew points are being modified by the North Sea

 

 

[snowfish1]

Gfs showing that damned azuroslug high pressure that has scuppered every decent synoptic this winter. Horrific I for one are never ready for "early spring" warmth doesn't seem right when we've hardly had a winter to speak of (for the umpteenth time) and you can bet your bottom dollar we'll get that slug and boring no mans land scenario that comes with it. The absence of posts in here says it all 

Edited February 10, 2017 by snowfish1

[Matthew.]

10 minutes ago, Tanden Sparkster said:

Top of Nunthorpe here and wet snow,pretty grim.

Looking at the latest charts its looking like tomorrow we lose the -10 uppers with that front coming in so elevation will make all the difference tomorrow. North york moors look good for snow though.

[Froze were the Days]

5 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

All well and good blue although it's not a good synoptic pattern though is it? This wkend aside I mean. We have a compact vortex moving to siberia, and one massive euro high with southerlies. It's been an epic fail yet again and people use the same old words every time "potential"

I would say the only bit with potential is this wkend, yet the only day with meaningfull instability is the day milder air floats over from an easterly. You litterelly couldn't make it up in this country it's by far the worst place in the world given our latitude for snow and the more time I spend here the more frustrating it's becoming. 4 years now with no snow which in itself is actually laughable and easily worse than any of the milder snowless winters in the past. It's been a lot worse even than 2006-7 when the likes of Ian Brown made his theories up. But now I'm thinking he was probably onto something because bar that group of winters between 08-13 he is right. 

Anyway this will last 2 minutes in here like everything else does that that is slightly controversial why the hell have a weather forum if we can't have a proper debate occasionally.

Yep totally agree, I've been keeping winter records since 1983 and take away a period 09-10, Dec 10 and periods 2012-13 the winters have been poor since the late 90's and certainly makes you wonder if this is GW now taking effect.

What ever happened to fairly frequent Pm shots or the odd Am outbreak (1 day this winter if I'm not mistaken largely effecting Scotland) and as for the debacle of trying to get a 'proper' easterly in place, all I can clutch at is the solar minimum in the coming winters and if we see a continuation of these type winters then god help us. Another disappointing episode looks to pass us by.

Poorly orientated Scandy high looks like giving way early next week to milder south easterlies or southerlies but please no more of this surface cold.

Edited February 10, 2017 by Froze were the Days

[phil nw.]

I have moved a number of recent posts to here

as they were not really about current outputs but were discussions of a wider nature wrt to past and future Winter weather.

As disappointing as later outputs are for cold and snow prospects please only post on the current charts in here and use the other threads where applicable..Remember the moans and banter thread here

if you want to just have a general chat over the models and ongoing conditions.

Thanks all.

[Woldsedge]

4 hours ago, snowfish1 said:

Gfs showing that damned azuroslug high pressure that has scuppered every decent synoptic this winter. Horrific I for one are never ready for "early spring" warmth doesn't seem right when we've hardly had a winter to speak of (for the umpteenth time) and you can bet your bottom dollar we'll get that slug and boring no mans land scenario that comes with it. The absence of posts in here says it all 

Azuroslug high has indeed scuppered any chance of anything decent this winter. A part of me is really wishing it is still in situ for the summer to give us a scorcher.....I bet it will have packed its bags and scarpered by then though.

[Singularity]

I have always found it amusing how some talk of the Euro or Azores highs as if they are sentient entities which do as they please - but of course I have no quarrel with it as they are indeed manifestations of forcing from elsewhere so in a sense they can be used as indicators of the background state. The tendency of the Azores/Euro high to interfere with events is a reflection of that for tropical forcing to spring up in the Indian Ocean at relatively short notice - and not only that, but in the wrong areas for each month (eastern IO would not be so bad this month but no, it had to be western - arriving there having taken form over W. Africa).

12z GFS running and there's better ridge to the west of the Icelandic trough thanks to the upstream low being held back more. I've seen a few  GEFS members which suggest that this could feasibly lead to a decent ridge up to Greenland a few days later... well, I have to chase something of interest, no matter what the odds 

Okay... the game is on again!  Let's try and get at least something from the phase 8 MJO prior to the interference setting in.

That's a key message here - the whole IO interference buggery is not relevant to next week; that's more to do with a lag from phase 4 GWO which should be overridden as the MJO moves through 7/8 such as it is now doing.

[Singularity]

You never know - the movement of lows suggested by the arrows is what ECM was going for up until yesterday's 12z and I wonder if the idea actually lives on after all.

[booferking]

7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

You never know - the movement of lows suggested by the arrows is what ECM was going for up until yesterday's 12z and I wonder if the idea actually lives on after all.

Lets hope we can get a little bit of luck this time, one last throw of the dice before Winter ends & spring starts..

[phil nw.]

6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

You never know - the movement of lows suggested by the arrows is what ECM was going for up until yesterday's 12z and I wonder if the idea actually lives on after all.

It does show even with a modest amount of ridging there's cold air to tap into just to our north-if this was to happen

if nothing else this does show that any warm up may be transient.

A pity we lost the amplification signal towards Greenland from a couple of days ago as we could have had quite a potent little northerly from that. 

[Singularity]

Just now, phil nw. said:

It does show even with a modest amount of ridging there's cold air to tap into just to our north-if this was to happen

if nothing else this does show that any warm up may be transient.

A pity we lost the amplification signal towards Greenland from a couple of days ago as we could have had quite a potent little northerly from that. 

Indeed - but it's worth considering the possibility that the signal could return at least a little, depending on how well or not the models are handling the impact of the uptick in GLAAM.

If we could get a sharp cold snap over next weekend with some snow followed by a taste of spring the following week, that could at least leave me satisfied from a personal perspective. Trouble is, getting snow all the way down here from a northerly is a tough ask! Today for example it's more from the NE yet still it drags its heels and threatens to fizzle out before arrival. Admittedly it's a pretty feeble feature to begin with.

[Nick F]

A sneaky cold shot from the arctic for northern areas next Friday on 12z GFS, but high chance it would get shut off by the low crossing the Atlantic to the west before it reaches Scotland, 12z UKMO looks less inclined to develop a cold N or NWly over the UK.

I guess all will depend on how quickly those winter storms over NE N America move out into the Atlantic, together with a strengthening jet streak. Before then, the Atlantic is pretty weak.

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS trop output beginning to get a whiff of that next displacement SSW. Did I hear it wouldn't downwell??

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS trop output beginning to get a whiff of that next displacement SSW. Did I hear it wouldn't downwell??

Was about to post the same thing. once the vortex is shoved back to Canada, quite a few members amplifying and also generating a more neg looking AO.

would take us to the end of the month which is why I don't have much enthusiasm for it from my locale.  oop norf with your elevation could be a different tale.

[nick sussex]

Only just caught up with the outputs and the 00hrs were a big disappointment. Very frustrating to see those height rises to the nw bite the bullet, the GFS12hrs and UKMO 12hrs just about give a crumb of hope and I mean something a mouse would even think was a bit stingy!

The UKMO is a bit better given the handling of the upstream troughing at that point because theres a small chance we could see a shortwave ejected off that se'wards, we'll see when the UKMO T168hrs comes out whether it achieves that.

Edited February 10, 2017 by nick sussex

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Was about to post the same thing. once the vortex is shoved back to Canada, quite a few members amplifying and also generating a more neg looking AO.

would take us to the end of the month which is why I don't have much enthusiasm for it from my locale.  oop norf with your elevation could be a different tale.

Always the chance the ridge could become a genuine Greenland ridge though, we are only talking Early March, FWIW I think evolution perhaps early, IMO all spring does it gradually eliminate the type of synoptics that would deliver, admittedly starting with the south but for instance a cyclonic NE'ly could deliver even for the South in mid March, it just makes proper snow events less likely, still a chance.

 

EDIT: Maybe for once the CFS will lead the way with a (non-phantom) monthly anomaly and the EC46 / GLOSEA5 will cotton on.

Edited February 10, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[nick sussex]

Just to throw a theory in if the ECM improves and slows the upstream pattern. It could be that the models caught onto a phase 1 MJO signal because of the velocity potential MJO forecast, in a sense this became the overriding signal however this may have been incorrect and the second more MJO typical type convection signature which is just in phase 7 is now battling with that other signal.

[Snowyowl9]

Chart of the last 4 winters combined.

http://.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn481.html

Well we have an easterly that's something,light snow heading west over the weekened drifting snow I hope in those strong winds depends how much we get,a dusting won`t be enough.

 

Edited February 10, 2017 by Snowyowl9

[Summer Sun]

21 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

For a few days earlier this week the ECM mean was showing hints of dropping back to or below 0 later next week that has disappeared on the past couple of updates whether it shows up again in the coming days who knows

1

ECM Op back to showing something colder again later next week

90 minutes time we'll find out what if any support this has from the ens