Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[ptow]

11 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Nick , this year the mjo, along with billion £££££ of computers, and the most knowledgeable of forecasters, the weather has made a mug out of everyone, forecasts jumping about as much as the computers, one minute it's a mild southwesterly for the next 10 days, the next day it's a cold 4 wks from the east, based on the mjo and strat forcings, it's the 4th winter on the trot now without any snow more than 1cm deep. 

Just goes to show how little we know about the weather. 

Let's see how we get on in the next few wks but I have so little faith in any forecast it means absolutely nothing this evening to see us in no man's land on the mods because in a few days time things will look completely different, probably right after the met office rewrite there long term forecasts. 

Much preferred it when ones didn't try to predict the weather more than 3 days in advance because that way people keep there dignity and hopes aren't continually dashed. 

Yes, the weather has made mugs of all of those mentioned however it's still managed to give us a bang on average boring winter with little of interest Lol

They should of stuck with that forecast.  always a safe bet for th uk

 

[Ali1977]

Towels in for Feb looking at some of the above comments, and I fully understand why. Mid Feb 850 charts like this aren't exactly wintery for much of Europe - snow melt in the Alps over half term won't go down well neither!!

still have a chance in March I guess and remember 2013s March didn't really start till mid month really so would have been much more potent early March, not that we'll get those Synoptics.

Snow depths in March 2013 only got going from the 20th.

Edited February 10, 2017 by Ali1977

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looks like a very similar evolution high up. Given the zonal flow is weaker than last time to begin with, I wouldn't expect anything coming from the strat to interfere too much with whatever is driving the trop at the time. In any event, for us in the south, march is generally not a month to bring lying snow and I would rather have spring than slush! 

Sad for coldies that this promising synoptic scenario is going to deliver so poorly., given its potential. I guesss we've done well to get a pseudo cold pool to get here but it's origins are not great and it doesn't pack a big enough punch ire depth of cold uppers or lowness of thickness. maybe this weekend sums up winter 16/17 pretty well - no luck for the UK coldies! 

 

All well and good blue although it's not a good synoptic pattern though is it? This wkend aside I mean. We have a compact vortex moving to siberia, and one massive euro high with southerlies. It's been an epic fail yet again and people use the same old words every time "potential"

I would say the only bit with potential is this wkend, yet the only day with meaningfull instability is the day milder air floats over from an easterly. You litterelly couldn't make it up in this country it's by far the worst place in the world given our latitude for snow and the more time I spend here the more frustrating it's becoming. 4 years now with no snow which in itself is actually laughable and easily worse than any of the milder snowless winters in the past. It's been a lot worse even than 2006-7 when the likes of Ian Brown made his theories up. But now I'm thinking he was probably onto something because bar that group of winters between 08-13 he is right. 

Anyway this will last 2 minutes in here like everything else does that that is slightly controversial why the hell have a weather forum if we can't have a proper debate occasionally.

[DR(S)NO]

12 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

All well and good blue although it's not a good synoptic pattern though is it? This wkend aside I mean. We have a compact vortex moving to siberia, and one massive euro high with southerlies. It's been an epic fail yet again and people use the same old words every time "potential"

I would say the only bit with potential is this wkend, yet the only day with meaningfull instability is the day milder air floats over from an easterly. You litterelly couldn't make it up in this country it's by far the worst place in the world given our latitude for snow and the more time I spend here the more frustrating it's becoming. 4 years now with no snow which in itself is actually laughable and easily worse than any of the milder snowless winters in the past. It's been a lot worse even than 2006-7 when the likes of Ian Brown made his theories up. But now I'm thinking he was probably onto something because bar that group of winters between 08-13 he is right. 

Anyway this will last 2 minutes in here like everything else does that that is slightly controversial why the hell have a weather forum if we can't have a proper debate occasionally.

It's hard to argue with what you've said SS.

But regarding the last paragraph , surely if you want a proper debate you could start up a thread?

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z shows potential for some snow today and throughout the weekend, cold by day with temps not much above freezing and generally sub-zero overnight and early morning's.

Edited February 10, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

I love Frosty's unerring optimism! But I think one look at this tells it all:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50

No weather warning for ice or snow anywhere. That tells you all you need to know - nothing to see here folks. It'll be a slushy drizzle fest for a bit, and that's about it. The last snow event a few weeks ago had warnings at least. Best pin our hopes on a late winter spectacular, because our time for winter 16/17 is just about up now.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

I love Frosty's unerring optimism! But I think one look at this tells it all:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50

No weather warning for ice or snow anywhere. That tells you all you need to know - nothing to see here folks. It'll be a slushy drizzle fest for a bit, and that's about it. The last snow event a few weeks ago had warnings at least. Best pin our hopes on a late winter spectacular, because our time for winter 16/17 is just about up now.

I'm just going by what the Gfs 00z shows..which is some snow and frosty nights

[geordiekev]

22 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I love Frosty's unerring optimism! But I think one look at this tells it all:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50

No weather warning for ice or snow anywhere. That tells you all you need to know

At least Frosty offers something model related,  unlike some of the one line emotive posts,  commenting on disasters or horrifying runs, which add nothing but to feed @alekos hobby. Don't mind a bit of realism but some kind of model discussion around these one liners would be appreciated.

Let's leave the emotive headlines to the express. 

We still have a couple of days for surprises to pop up for those in favoured areas for snow,  before the next pattern encroaches and who knows what will happen after that because throughout this Winter episode, it seems no pattern wins out for more than 6 days, so lots of time for hope. 

Edited February 10, 2017 by geordiekev

[bluearmy]

30 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

All well and good blue although it's not a good synoptic pattern though is it? This wkend aside I mean. 

this weekend is two days when it could have conceivably snowed a lot had things gone in our favour. The sypnotcis look broadly v good. Thereafter is the issue re the arcing upper ridge. That really isn't something you could have envisaged at the outset of this. How it would go all the way from the Azores around to c Europe and the Iberian trough would sit there and then retrograde rather than push east towards Italy to support CAA. This is the point - it was sypntoically v promising at the outset and yet will deliver almost nothing of notable wintryness re snowcover. 

anyway I sat on my fence from the beginning as something didn't smell right to me. I would rather be on the white side of the fence but alas it's just damp on both sides now although next week may be quite pleasant in any sunshine. 

As for debating the balance of your post in the model discussion thread, there is a model moans thread which may seem more apt?

i get your frustration by the way - I dread to think how many hours I've spent chasing potential cold solutions on the nwp this winter with pretty well no return. shocking productivity !

[Paul33]

24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I love Frosty's unerring optimism! But I think one look at this tells it all:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50

No weather warning for ice or snow anywhere. That tells you all you need to know - nothing to see here folks. It'll be a slushy drizzle fest for a bit, and that's about it. The last snow event a few weeks ago had warnings at least. Best pin our hopes on a late winter spectacular, because our time for winter 16/17 is just about up now.

All this Winter has demonstrated to me is that (a) all these models try their best to forecast ahead but frankly they haven't a hope in hell of knowing what Mother Nature is going to do and (b) our interpretation of the models simply adds a further layer of guesswork to it all.

I love seeing the models and getting excited at reading the model interpretations (sometimes !) but really - and no disrespect intended - we really haven't got a clue what the weather is going to do beyond 3-4 days !!!

 

[phil nw.]

I can certainly understand the disappointment in current modeling from coldies pov.

I think many of us were wary of getting much out of this easterly because of the way the high orientated with low pressure never establishing far enough east under the block ie around Italy so,as successive runs showed,the cold air from the east was limited and the block would sink.

Sure enough this morning's charts continue with this trend-just the UK at T96hrs for illustration as they all go the same way

so a gradual warm up towards average after the weekend as we import less cold air from further south.

It really has been frustrating a Winter for cold lovers with probably more exciting day 10 charts than i can remember and many garden paths trodden eventually leading to at best dry and cold conditions under mid-latitude blocking.

 

 

[Frosty.]

Yes it does look like becoming less cold / milder next week as winds become more southerly but enjoy the current cold spell as some  of us will see snow, especially tonight and tomorrow morning with the pennines likely to see a good dumping.

[Summer Sun]

This morning's ECM ens shows the peak of the 850's on Tuesday next week at about +6 after this they generally stay around +3 give or take a bit to allow for some daily variations

[Devonshire]

12 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

So surely the law of averages ought to suggest that we will see another decent winter before 2020.

I would think solar cycle more worth pinning hopes on that the law of averages - and that looks promising between now and 2020

[Man With Beard]

At least there isn't really any further the models can go now - it's downhill all the way for cold prospoects from here! It can't get much worse for coldies than this - D16 on GFS, the dreaded Canadian black hole anomaly:

Outlier? Er ... no

ECM D10 - a perfect polar vortex

 Why, though, do I have this feeling that come the time, that Scandi ridging will return, giving us something like this

  

Low-teens in any sunshine, chance to get the BBQ out.

The best hope for cold is that the ECM D10 chart leads to the Atlantic trough pushing through rather faster, combined with an SSW and MJO phase 8 nuking the vortex, producing a north-Atlantic high in its wake.  A whopping great 1 out of 22 GEFS members go for this idea:

Might get some spectacular driving sleet from that!!

 

[Interitus]

1 hour ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

I would say the only bit with potential is this wkend, yet the only day with meaningfull instability is the day milder air floats over from an easterly. You litterelly couldn't make it up in this country it's by far the worst place in the world given our latitude for snow and the more time I spend here the more frustrating it's becoming. 4 years now with no snow which in itself is actually laughable and easily worse than any of the milder snowless winters in the past. It's been a lot worse even than 2006-7 when the likes of Ian Brown made his theories up. But now I'm thinking he was probably onto something because bar that group of winters between 08-13 he is right. 

This is a classic easterly!

Watch how the cold air mass from eastern Europe and beyond, crosses the UK today, easily seen on the meteociel 850 ThetaE chart, as highlighted -

In two days time, the air mass is over the mid-Atlantic -

And by next Tuesday it reaches Newfoundland, Canada! -

The trajectory plot at that time shows that for St John's, air just above 850mb (1300 metres) crosses Scotland today, after coming from northern Ukraine -

air a little higher at 1350 metres has come from the steppes of southern Siberia, near Kazakhstan! -

The upshot is that for northern Newfoundland, the temperatures go from below -30°C this weekend, to positive territory with heavy rain and sleet into Wednesday next week -

Damn these mild easterlies!

(Just a bit of fun )

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Double figures in the south on Wednesday and more widely on Thursday

[EastAnglian]

I understand the frustration and in part share it, but please remember the models do not forecast all they can possibly do is to present a number of outcomes based on their input data and a series of complex calculations. The forecast is done by human experts who take a view of all the output and present their version of the outcome. The easiest way to avoid bursting a blood vessel over an output is to not take every output at face value and remember they are a prediction of a possible future outcome, not a forecast.

[Summer Sun]

Vast parts of Europe under high pressure towards the end of next week

[booferking]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Double figures in the south on Wednesday and more widely on Thursday

Looks like your joining in on the fun Wednesday @Daniel* snowdrops in full bloom.

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Double figures in the south on Wednesday and more widely on Thursday

Yes Gavin, a welcome early taste of spring from the models next week, should see some snow..drops!

Edited February 10, 2017 by Frosty.

[Alexis]

Worth remembering that talk of 'the models will have underestimated the block' and 'the block won't move in a hurry' doesn't mean a block can't be reorientated or move into an unfavourable position. 

[Tamara]

If its good to have a debate, then here is another side to it

I really don't know where "dignity" comes into this. Who, exactly, loses dignity by attempting to identify evolving weather patterns based on the best data that is available to them?

I will speak just for myself here, but the only really significant optimism I have expressed this winter, at least since the early promising signals dissipated in late autumn, only began in late January. Such that TEITS was kind enough to mention the other evening

 Objectivity should always apply to model discussion, irrespective of outlook, but fortunately late January supported a cold(er) synoptics to evolve - and a colder synoptic pattern that wasn't apparent in NWP at the time. So it was fortunate because it meant that forward thinking could jive with the mood of the thread. As I found earlier in the winter, its very much harder to post and appear to move against the general mood of this environment, appearing as some kind of kill-joy, when individual thinking is not the same.

Many on this model output discussion thread root for a similar outcome, very much including myself, but I would suggest the premise of some of these protest and frustration posts work the other way around - and it is not those who try to understand the chaos of the weather patterns who need to reign themselves in to retain "dignity" but maybe instead its the case that some sections of the audience should temper their expectations to the science of meteorology which does not evolve weather patterns soley to accomodate the wishes of that audience (which I tried, and failed, to suggest yet again yesterday evening)

I wholeheartedly agree that the surface conditions are a disappointing reflection of the synoptic pattern, but I'm increasingly often at a complete loss at what some people's expectations are on this thread sometimes. If the expectation is to never let the audience down by not only seamlessly reel in a freeze to t0, but to also ensure that the delivery optimises deeply cold uppers and unstable convective snow showers piling in from east to west (or north to south) to satisfy everyone to no exclusion - then frankly this thread should be closed down from November to March

 Its always the so called "analysts" or alleged messengers of a given weather pattern that are wrong or who need to go back to drawing board when the weather outside the window doesn't mean those lofty expectations. Its not just the weather that is cursed at the end of a frustrating winter in the UK, its also the messengers. From the ordinary member on here, to the qualified analysts of weather organisations, right through to national institutions like the METO

There are ways of venting understandable frustration, and frustration I share at what could be, but their are much less emotional and blame driven ways of doing so.

In that respect I look forward to the longer days. The virtual in-house bias turns to warmth rather absurdly like the flick of a switch once meteorological winter is finished, but even the UK's unerring ability to deliver cool showery weather around the longest days of the year, and which meets with the summer equivalent of winter ice and snow starved stamping feet, is at least relatively easier to manage....

Edit: If anyone wants to read a good attempt at deciphering the loss of expected amplification and HLB signal related to Pacific progression of tropical convection, then @Singularity has I think made some worthwhile analysis in the technical thread

Edited February 10, 2017 by Tamara

[pureasthedriven]

23 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Vast parts of Europe under high pressure towards the end of next week

If it ain't gonna snow we could really use some rain down here. Not barren, this winter, but with so much HP knocking about through Jan and with projections like this, there could be issues further down the line. 

[pureasthedriven]

6 minutes ago, Tamara said:

If its good to have a debate, then here is another side to it

I really don't know where "dignity" comes into this. Who, exactly, loses dignity by attempting to identify evolving weather patterns based on the best data that is available to them?

I will speak just for myself here, but the only really significant optimism I have expressed this winter, at least since the early promising signals dissipated in late autumn, only began in late January. Such that TEITS was kind enough to mention the other evening

 Objectivity should always apply to model discussion, irrespective of outlook, but fortunately late January supported a cold(er) synoptics to evolve - and a colder synoptic pattern that wasn't apparent in NWP at the time. So it was fortunate because it meant that forward thinking could jive with the mood of the thread. As I found earlier in the winter, its very much harder to post and appear to move against the general mood of this environment, appearing as some kind of kill-joy, when individual thinking is not the same.

Many on this model output discussion thread root for a similar outcome, very much including myself, but I would suggest the premise of some of these protest and frustration posts work the other way around - and it is not those who try to understand the chaos of the weather patterns who need to reign themselves in to retain "dignity" but maybe instead its the case that some sections of the audience should temper their expectations to the science of meteorology which does not evolve weather patterns soley to accomodate the wishes of that audience (which I tried, and failed, to suggest yet again yesterday evening)

I wholeheartedly agree that the surface conditions are a disappointing reflection of the synoptic pattern, but I'm increasingly often at a complete loss at what some people's expectations are on this thread sometimes. If the expectation is to never let the audience down by not only seamlessly reel in a freeze to t0, but to also ensure that the delivery optimises deeply cold uppers and unstable convective snow showers piling in from east to west (or north to south) to satisfy everyone to no exclusion - then frankly this thread should be closed down from November to March

 Its always the so called "analysts" or alleged messengers of a given weather pattern that are wrong or who need to go back to drawing board when the weather outside the window doesn't mean those lofty expectations. Its not just the weather that is cursed at the end of a frustrating winter in the UK, its also the messengers. From the ordinary member on here, to the qualified analysts of weather organisations, right through to national institutions like the METO

There are ways of venting understandable frustration, and frustration I share at what could be, but their are much less emotional and blame driven ways of doing so.

In that respect I look forward to the longer days. The virtual in-house bias turns to warmth rather absurdly like the flick of a switch once meteorological winter is finished, but even the UK's unerring ability to deliver cool showery weather around the longest days of the year, and which meets with the summer equivalent of winter ice and snow starved stamping feet, is at least relatively easier to manage....

Well said Tamara. Stick at it. Invariably I've found your broad theme forecasts more accurate than not, especially with respect to patterns, and have managed my own expectations as a result. I'm grateful for your input on here.