Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

[warrenb]

UKMet has us in a SW'ly by next Wednesday. This really has gone downhill very fast hasn't it.

[DR(S)NO]

2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

UKMet has us in a SW'ly by next Wednesday. This really has gone downhill very fast hasn't it.

Providing it's correct?

[Summer Sun]

In the space of 48hrs UKMO takes us from a southeasterly to southwesterly

[tight isobar]

Just a quick observation/reference as regards precipitation amounts/feature falling.

Once again' hold fire on developing scenarios and pick up with high-res output. ..

Lots of twists. 

And with current basing' again some surprises and disappointment will occur. 

The bigger further picture will hopefully begin to unravel shortly. 

Via complexity s for alternative cold incur. 

[Anon90]

8 minutes ago, warrenb said:

UKMet has us in a SW'ly by next Wednesday. This really has gone downhill very fast hasn't it.

I expect the ECM to back it later, looks like the GFS is lagging behind a bit a per usual.

[The Enforcer]

28 minutes ago, AWD said:

GFS 12z isn't a million miles away from that projection on Saturday afternoon;

Although, like you say, I wouldn't take such detail too literally as a tweak either way could be the difference between a flurry or some drizzle.

P.S.  This is the reason the GFS 12z forecasts rain for the Midlands on Saturday afternoon;

I picked up on this last night, but didn't get a reply:

Why are the dew points not favourable?

I am always being told that 850s from an easterly don't need to be as low as a northerly to produce snow (as it happens they are predicted to be significantly lower than the January northerly), because the surface temperatures and dew points coming from a cold continent are lower than when polar maritime air has to cross the Atlantic. On those charts the dew points are lower on the continent and snow is shown to be falling, but this is not having the desired affect.

I get that the North Sea would have an impact on the temperatures and dew points close to eastern coastal areas, but surely it can't affect areas hundreds of miles inland? Even the some of the air temperature and dew points directly over the North Sea itself are lower than inland UK and snow is shown as falling there too.

The only explanation I can offer is that it is a bad idea to rely on a global low-res model to look at detail instead of one of the higher resolution options. I believe NMM have a 2km uk model.

If I am wrong then it seems a pretty fruitless exercise for those already chasing after a reload easterly, when if we achieve another burst of the desired polar continental air that the net result is that precipitation is rain, the same as if the air was coming from any other direction.

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, warrenb said:

This really has gone downhill very fast hasn't it.

I wouldn't say that, the general trend is for gradually less cold / milder conditions next week onwards.

[Gael_Force]

11 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

The only explanation I can offer is that it is a bad idea to rely on a global low-res model to look at detail instead of one of the higher resolution options. I believe NMM have a 2km uk model.

If I am wrong then it seems a pretty fruitless exercise for those already chasing after a reload easterly, when if we achieve another burst of the desired polar continental air that the net result is that precipitation is rain, the same as if the air was coming from any other direction

I don't think there are any public view higher res models than the Arome 1.3km.

Very marginal for a lot of areas when you look at the detail.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome.php?ech=3&mode=118&map=30

Edited February 9, 2017 by Gael_Force

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I wouldn't say that, the general trend is for gradually less cold / milder conditions next week onwards.

Yes, but a few days ago it looked like more of a cold spell rather than a very brief leasterly. The ECM was derided when it showed this and has proven to be correct.

The models have also just about given up on any Greenland retrogression, resulting in what we have had all Winter, namely the UK High.

[iamgazza]

Over the last 4 weeks, the models have consistently underestimated how hard the cold is to shift to our east. It's finally progressed this way. Can we be confident that by this time next week the cold will be gone?

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Yes, but a few days ago it looked like more of a cold spell rather than a very brief leasterly. The ECM was derided when it showed this and has proven to be correct.

The models have also just about given up on any Greenland retrogression, resulting in what we have had all Winter, namely the UK High.

Well sadly the Easterly has been watered down, less beast, more cuddly kitten and next week looks like becoming less cold or dare I say, somewhat milder.

Edited February 9, 2017 by Frosty.

[Daniel*]

22 minutes ago, warrenb said:

UKMet has us in a SW'ly by next Wednesday. This really has gone downhill very fast hasn't it.

That's not quite right, Indeed for Ireland & Scotland. It will not take much to get a slack colder continental infulence especially for S/E areas well it is 'blocked'.

[Alexis]

53 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

I picked up on this last night, but didn't get a reply:

Why are the dew points not favourable?

I am always being told that 850s from an easterly don't need to be as low as a northerly to produce snow (as it happens they are predicted to be significantly lower than the January northerly), because the surface temperatures and dew points coming from a cold continent are lower than when polar maritime air has to cross the Atlantic. On those charts the dew points are lower on the continent and snow is shown to be falling, but this is not having the desired affect.

I get that the North Sea would have an impact on the temperatures and dew points close to eastern coastal areas, but surely it can't affect areas hundreds of miles inland? Even the some of the air temperature and dew points directly over the North Sea itself are lower than inland UK and snow is shown as falling there too.

The only explanation I can offer is that it is a bad idea to rely on a global low-res model to look at detail instead of one of the higher resolution options. I believe NMM have a 2km uk model.

If I am wrong then it seems a pretty fruitless exercise for those already chasing after a reload easterly, when if we achieve another burst of the desired polar continental air that the net result is that precipitation is rain, the same as if the air was coming from any other direction.

We just happen to have picked up a blob of less cold air originating from the Black Sea area. This is why a straight easterly is better than one looping up from southern Europe.

[Ali1977]

Well according to the GEFS we should right off the rest of Winter after this weekend - shocking for coldies. For me this has been worse than the last few as I've expected something good!!  

If it wasn't for this weekend I think I'd take a week off model viewing. 

[Summer Sun]

15th to around the 20th the GFS Op and control are on the colder side of the mean

[bluearmy]

the week 2 ensembles (both gefs and eps) take the displaced vortex back across from Siberia to ne Canada. we all know what that means. a period of increased atlantic mobility and either a euro/ sceuro or scandi ridge to follow. currently the euro looking more likely.

whilst the modelling remains generally unconvincing, I have much less confidence in this evolution than would usually be the case with both suites in broad agreement. 

Edited February 9, 2017 by bluearmy

[booferking]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

That's not quite right, Indeed for Ireland & Scotland. It will not take much to get a slack colder continental infulence especially for S/E areas well it is 'blocked'.

Your comment is spot on but i would rather dry mild than slack colder continental as it is no use to man or beast it ain't a snow maker which 95% this forum wants, you may as well make hay while the sun shines, makes them morning walks are rounds of golf feel more pleasant so thumbs up to the SW'ly for Ireland & Scotland.

Edited February 9, 2017 by booferking

[The Enforcer]

58 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I don't think there are any public view higher res models than the Arome 1.3km.

Very marginal for a lot of areas when you look at the detail.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome.php?ech=3&mode=118&map=30

Thanks for this. It is looking more realistic - mostly snow inland on Saturday morning.

13 minutes ago, Alexis said:

We just happen to have picked up a blob of less cold air originating from the Black Sea area. This is why a straight easterly is better than one looping up from southern Europe.

Well I thought that could be a possible explanation but the less cold air doesn't arrive until Sunday/Monday and the charts are showing snow falling over the continent and the North Sea before and during Saturday.

[MattTarrant]

19 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well according to the GEFS we should right off the rest of Winter after this weekend - shocking for coldies. For me this has been worse than the last few as I've expected something good!!  

If it wasn't for this weekend I think I'd take a week off model viewing. 

I kind of hope somehow the models are overdoing the effect of the phase 1 signal of the MJO but somehow even my hopeful side of me is becoming slightly dejected. 

Not that I will right of any further chances of cold weather but its looking like if there will be then it will likely happen early to mid March at best. 

Lets just list of some of the bad luck we have had this winter;

. Background telecommunications looked promising for November especially, failed to deliver with blocking too far south. December followed a similar vain (Roughly).

. The Northerly/North Westerly outbreak a few weeks back failed to deliver any serious goods. Mostly due to the fact the cold failed to undercut properly that troublesome feature that produced some snow for the South East.

. This easterly outbreak (I was under no illusion that it was never going to be historic or particularly memorable) but even when troughing develops on Saturday it looks like a slightly milder air will push dew points just the wrong side of marginal (especially for more eastern areas). Then the retrogression signal of 2-3 days ago has seemingly been scuppered by the unwelcomed phase 1 signal.

How's are luck?    

 

 

 

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Well sadly the Easterly has been watered down, less beast, more cuddly kitten and next week looks like becoming less cold or dare I say, somewhat milder.

The easterly was never a beasterly anyway, it was never a classic easterly to start off, some should be lucky there is actually a little bit of moisture being picked up from the North Sea to give some a little bit of snowfall because initially the easterly was more of a ESE'ly and was looking quite dry and cloudy. The only thing about this easterly is that it actually producing some quite cold upper air temps but with high thicknesses and pressure, its quite a stable easterly hence a lot of cloud and no convective weather.

Next week is still a bit uncertain on just how much milder it will get, take the GFS for example, within the flow there is pockets of less high thicknesses which suggests more cloud and a bit of PPN along with slightly cooler uppers, if this was to happen, then temps may struggle to get into double figures on a widely basis. The UKMO has much higher thicknesses which suggests warmer uppers which means temps will be higher, how much sunshine there be is hard to tell but if there is going to be some, it could really boost the temps and the weather will feel spring like.

As for any retrogession into Greenland - i believe that when I see it because its the same old storey as far as getting Greenland highs is concerned in winter, very hard thing to achieve with the increased amount of shortwaves we seem to get these days.

[blizzard81]

40 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

I kind of hope somehow the models are overdoing the effect of the phase 1 signal of the MJO but somehow even my hopeful side of me is becoming slightly dejected. 

Not that I will right of any further chances of cold weather but its looking like if there will be then it will likely happen early to mid March at best. 

Lets just list of some of the bad luck we have had this winter;

. Background telecommunications looked promising for November especially, failed to deliver with blocking too far south. December followed a similar vain (Roughly).

. The Northerly/North Westerly outbreak a few weeks back failed to deliver any serious goods. Mostly due to the fact the cold failed to undercut properly that troublesome feature that produced some snow for the South East.

. This easterly outbreak (I was under no illusion that it was never going to be historic or particularly memorable) but even when troughing develops on Saturday it looks like a slightly milder air will push dew points just the wrong side of marginal (especially for more eastern areas). Then the retrogression signal of 2-3 days ago has seemingly been scuppered by the unwelcomed phase 1 signal.

How's are luck?    

 

 

 

Abysmal. Almost like our winters are fixed. I really was expecting much more excitement for us coldies this winter.

[blizzard81]

41 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

The easterly was never a beasterly anyway, it was never a classic easterly to start off, some should be lucky there is actually a little bit of moisture being picked up from the North Sea to give some a little bit of snowfall because initially the easterly was more of a ESE'ly and was looking quite dry and cloudy. The only thing about this easterly is that it actually producing some quite cold upper air temps but with high thicknesses and pressure, its quite a stable easterly hence a lot of cloud and no convective weather.

Next week is still a bit uncertain on just how much milder it will get, take the GFS for example, within the flow there is pockets of less high thicknesses which suggests more cloud and a bit of PPN along with slightly cooler uppers, if this was to happen, then temps may struggle to get into double figures on a widely basis. The UKMO has much higher thicknesses which suggests warmer uppers which means temps will be higher, how much sunshine there be is hard to tell but if there is going to be some, it could really boost the temps and the weather will feel spring like.

As for any retrogession into Greenland - i believe that when I see it because its the same old storey as far as getting Greenland highs is concerned in winter, very hard thing to achieve with the increased amount of shortwaves we seem to get these days.

Yes, the Greenland high hasn't even threatened to appear this winter.

[Dean E]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Yes, the Greenland high hasn't even threatened to appear this winter.

The Greenland high was been absent for many winters now, partly due to a consistent Polar vortex over NE Canada.

[KTtom]

Having  trawled through the models I fear after this weekend weather forums are going to be very quiet for some time with the words spring- like the common Phrase! 

Edited February 9, 2017 by KTtom

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, SnowMania said:

The Greenland high was been absent for many winters now, partly due to a consistent Polar vortex over NE Canada.

True. That PV over north east US is omni present for the last few years. Unbelievable really and guess what? It looks like reappearing very soon.

Edited February 9, 2017 by blizzard81