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Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: London North
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heat
  • Location: London North

As I mentioned up the page models now trying to re align to a slower Mjo phase 8 not a quicker progression (GFS pulled trigger to early)...ECM trying.....Interesting fight!

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image.png

Edited by Scandyhigh
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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Been way too bust to view any charts last few days, just quickly viewing the ECM in isolation.

This looks ok at 192.

ECH1-192.GIF.thumb.png.11dd5b9d0374aa3aa5e825db0e865d64.png

Edited by Day 10
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

The ecm wants to find a route for a complete greeny high here...

Without doubt- the evolution to be looking for....

ECH1-192-1.gif

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Much more HP and dry continental air influence from ECM this evening so retaining cold nights while days could be very pleasant in light winds. As less cold interludes go it would be very tolerable... 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

I hope I'm wrong but got a feeling this is gonna cause a lot of people disappointment. Dew points above freezing may mean rain for many on Saturday. Typical as the heavier precipitation gets in.

viewimage.png

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
2 minutes ago, Scandyhigh said:

As I mentioned up the page models now trying to re align to a slower Mjo phase 8 not a quicker progression (GFS pulled trigger to early)...ECM trying.....Interesting fight!

image.png

Another model showing more heights around Greenland

ECH101-192.gif.thumb.png.7cc65edc2cbe6815c18d177c1def9553.png

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

:rolleyes: Where's the jet stream..?!

ECH101-216.gif.thumb.png.3407d36ea6315082fe296ce2bdae8331.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Would be good to finish the winter in style with a Greeny high and at least one proper snow event to talk of! Otherwise this winter is fast going to be filed under F for frustrating.

ECH1-216.GIF.thumb.png.488d7468763fd3d9d275dcbc70e51a1a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

One thing is for sure is with the Vortex moving if we do get a GH it would be brutal cold, but I'm not reading anything into day 10 charts. Not getting suckered into that one again

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Finally some good progress from ECM with the pattern adjusted a good way west. Heights becoming low across Scandi for a change! Cold air resource getting recharged not far to our east.

Chiono's NE import scenario can be envisioned going forward, spanners not withstanding...

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
15 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

It would appear to my very untrained eye that there are tentative signs of the high pressure holding further North on this evening's runs compared to this time yesterday?

Still looks chilly to me for much of next week before renewed tentative signs of height rises to our North West?

I agree. Ecm sniffing out changes again?

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Quite a flip to a Northerly on the ECM, I still think we could get that flip a day earlier . This is a great chart although not a strong  Greeny high, will it still be there tomorrow I'm not so sure...I currently have no confidence in any charts beyond 5 days never mind 10

IMG_4231.PNG

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

JN192-21.GIF?08-12

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Posted
  • Location: Ringwood, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Ringwood, Hampshire

Heights lowering in the Med, decent cold to tap into

gfs.thumb.png.8a48c7e0bfec2cfe5fc447893f7db3a7.pnggfs.thumb.png.b0f338d9f8d1f26520bf86061dfbb1fe.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z looks wintry in the reliable which is where I will stay for now...-10 T850's with snow showers and widespread frosty nights..some areas will see a covering during the next 3 days and nights which all things considered is pretty good and these charts are eye candy that will verify!:D

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48_mslp850.png

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96_mslp850uk.png

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Quite a flip to a Northerly on the ECM, I still think we could get that flip a day earlier . This is a great chart although not a strong  Greeny high 

IMG_4231.PNG

Must be strong enough to be able to keep those purples apart..:D

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Posted
  • Location: South Kyme, Lincolnshire
  • Location: South Kyme, Lincolnshire
4 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 6z mean shows a gradual trend to less cold conditions during next week onwards. Not saying its right, just what it shows which is a return to average conditions.

 

Paul Hudson on BBC Look north alluded to your comment just now.

LO

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Not the 5 star ending on the ECM  but a step in the right direction. The main thing is that its moved away from the block over Canada, still plenty of time for positive changes and this calls into question the early obituaries for the MJO. NCEP are adamant its in phase 6 at the moment about to enter phase 7. The divergence between that and the VP200 is an issue but I'll post something on that later.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Quite a flip to a Northerly on the ECM, I still think we could get that flip a day earlier . This is a great chart although not a strong  Greeny high, will it still be there tomorrow I'm not so sure...I currently have no confidence in any charts beyond 5 days never mind 10

IMG_4231.PNG

Don't discount it completely. ECM spotted the much commented on milder spell first.

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Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan

If we compare the UKMO and the ECMWF at 144 I think there is only one way the UKMO is going. 

As much as the ECM has been hated on, I still find it's evolution very believable and as Seasonality said, it spotted the breakdown of our current spell pretty well 

IMG_9124.PNG

IMG_9125.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It was less than a week ago when the models didn't indicate any snow 

That is simply not true, indeed I posted in the Ireland thread over a week ago about snow potential for this weekend from what the models are showing.

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