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Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted

Just for examples.. The GEM keeps the block to our East at 240hr

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.bcd7d19d66227ea725ed84205c79555d.png

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
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Posted
2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Yeah, and how many times have we seen the models want to bring the Atlantic through prematurely..?:rolleyes:

Premature Atlantication? :oops: Indeed though, a continuing pattern through this winter, we can comment on the output but any certainty of outcome is still up in the air.

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Just for examples.. The GEM keeps the block to our East at 240hr

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.bcd7d19d66227ea725ed84205c79555d.png

Interesting, heaven forbid we put any certainty in 240h on GEM but based on the pattern of underestimated block resilience and overestimated atlantic power then that may very well be a good call by the GEM!

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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Interesting, heaven forbid we put any certainty in 240h on GEM but based on the pattern of underestimated block resilience and overestimated atlantic power then that may very well be a good call by the GEM!

People react too quick, Seasonality.. and we all know that's the case but they still whinge.

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shane303 Explorer

shane303

Posted
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)
Posted (edited)

So from the lastest models the outlook is cold or very cold until Monday then perhaps less cold / milder then a cold reload from the north the following weekend 

Edited by shane303
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Popular Post
Posted

So..the Gfs 12z shows a very cold Easterly with snow showers during the next 3 or 4 days which is wonderful and then we flirt with an Arctic airmass towards the end of next week..something to build on!:cold:

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted (edited)

Showers heading inland over England a little more sleety the further south you go according to the euro 4  to be honest all abit meh 

IMG_0453.GIF

IMG_0454.GIF

Edited by weirpig
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

Just for fun the Nasa model, and Atlantic height rises!

geos-0-240.png

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JamesL Aficionado

JamesL

Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
Posted

I have a feeling that we may well be seeing a few more hints of cold from the north in 10 days time.

The ensembles toyed with them a day or so ago before dropping the theme but I've got a feeling the trend will be strengthened in the next few days giving us interest after this weekends cold. 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

With the ecm renowned for its override of amplification' id be keen for this evenings 12z suite to sharpen of evaluating' a pump..

At or around 144-168...

Wedging at/around Greenland! 

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Scandyhigh Newbie

Scandyhigh

Posted
  • Location: London North
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heat
  • Location: London North
Posted (edited)

Still think the models are re aligning to the slower MJO forcing into phase 8, interesting all sniffing height rises into next weekend with continued wave1 breaking.....Interesting next few days to see where the block goes....

image.png

Edited by Scandyhigh
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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

ECM shortens the cold spell further. By Sunday -4 uppers and climbing. 

Still potent Friday/Saturday 

Yep two day event epic beastly.

Surely has to be a warm outliner for if its not that is rather disappointing state of affairs.

ECM0-96 (1).gif

ECM0-120.gif

Edited by booferking
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

With this chart for Sat on the ECM you would think the precipitation band would be better south of the Midlands, I have a feeling the South may do better than the North - especially away from coasts. Prob still only a cm maybe 2, but heh I'd be happy with that after the last 3 years

IMG_4230.PNG

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

ECM the block is stronger and further west than the other models. Just an observation at this stage.

ECM1-120.gif

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snowstorm445 Apprentice

snowstorm445

Posted
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy weather in winter, dry and warm weather in summer
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
Posted
4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

ECM the block is stronger and further west than the other models. Just an observation at this stage.

ECM1-120.gif

Thats a rather sad and lonely looking low over the Azores lol. :D

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

ECM the block is stronger and further west than the other models. Just an observation at this stage.

ECM1-120.gif

If you are comparing the 12z +120h to the 00z +144h then remember the time stamps are different by 12 hours. Not as easy to compare like the GFS is.

Edited by PerfectStorm
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igloo Enthusiast

igloo

Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
Posted
12 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yep two day event epic beastly.

Surely has to be a warm outliner for if its not that is rather disappointing state of affairs.

ECM0-96 (1).gif

ECM0-120.gif

i remember a few days back the ECM got a pasteing for what some people thought was a outlier well it looks as if it was spot on once again give credit when its dew the only way for a prolonged cold spell in this new era is for a greenie which is one in every ten years if we get lucky 

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

If you are comparing the 12z +120h to the 00z +144h then remember the time stamps are different by 12 hours.

Not if you click on 'Live active compare'

Lets you compare all the models and the same time frame.

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

If you are comparing the 12z +120h to the 00z +144h then remember the time stamps are different by 12 hours. Not as easy to compare like the GFS is.

No was comparing to GFS and UKMO current 12z

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted
1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Not if you click on 'Live active compare'

Lets you compare all the models and the same time frame.

Ah, now I didn't know that existed. Cheers Seasonality! :D

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Kentish Snowman in Yorks Experienced

Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
Posted (edited)

It would appear to my very untrained eye that there are tentative signs of the high pressure holding further North on this evening's runs compared to this time yesterday?

Still looks chilly to me for much of next week before renewed tentative signs of height rises to our North West?

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted (edited)

The Atlantic looks weak at 168hr..

Edited by D.V.R
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