Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?
A new thread, for posting and discussing tweets about the forecast models currently. Please only post tweets in this thread, not the main model or banter threads.
The reason for this change is that a tweets are, by their nature brief, which in turn can leave them open to multiple interpretations, which in the fast-moving model thread can mean a lot of reaction to misinterpretations which pulls the whole thing off on a tangent.
To cater for those who prefer a slower pace, more in depth discussion around the models, we've decided to setup this new thread. So if the drama and excitement of the main model thread isn't quite your thing, then please feel free to post into this thread.
You're also welcome to cross-post - so if you've made a longer post in the model thread, you can copy it into here, and vice-versa.
Here we go then with the strat thread for autumn and winter 2016/17. Ed and Tony are both very busy with work and life at the moment, so I'm starting the thread rolling, and have copied Ed's (Chionomaniac's) superb opening post to last years thread below. Ed and Tony are both hoping to be about more as we move into the Winter.
As we speak things are starting to look potentially quite interesting stratosphere wise, so there ought to be plenty to chat about!
Ed's opener from 2015/16
As ever, the first post will become both a reference thread and basic learning thread for those wanting to understand how the stratosphere may affect the winter tropospheric pattern, so forgive me for some repeat from previous years, but it is important that those new to the stratosphere have a place that they can be directed to in order to achieve a basic grasp of the subject.
The stratosphere is the layer of the atmosphere situated between 10km and 50km above the earth. It is situated directly above the troposphere, the first layer of the atmosphere and the layer that is directly responsible for the weather that we receive at the surface. The boundary between the stratosphere and the troposphere is known as the tropopause. The air pressure ranges from around 100hPa at the lower levels of the stratosphere to below 1hPa at the upper levels. The middle stratosphere is often considered to be around the 10-30hPa level.
Every winter the stratosphere cools down dramatically as less solar UV radiation is absorbed by the ozone content in the stratosphere. The increasing difference in the temperature between the North Pole and the latitudes further south creates a strong vortex â€“ the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. The colder the polar stratosphere in relation to that at mid latitudes, the stronger this vortex becomes. The stratospheric vortex has a strong relationship with the tropospheric vortex below. A strong stratospheric vortex will lead to a strong tropospheric vortex. This relationship is interdependent; conditions in the stratosphere will influence the troposphere whilst tropospheric atmospheric and wave conditions will influence the stratospheric state.
At the surface the strength and position of the tropospheric vortex influences the type of weather that we are likely to experience. A strong polar vortex is more likely to herald a positive AO with the resultant jet stream track bringing warmer and wet southwesterly winds. A weaker polar vortex can contribute to a negative AO with the resultant mild wet weather tracking further south and a more blocked pattern the result. A negative AO will lead to a greater chance of colder air spreading to latitudes further south such as the UK.
The stratosphere is a far more stable environment then the troposphere below it.
However, the state of the stratosphere can be influenced by numerous factors â€“ the current solar state, the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the ozone content and distribution and transport mechanism, the snow cover and extent indices and the ENSO state to name the most significant. These factors can influence whether large tropospheric waves that can be deflected into the stratosphere can disrupt the stratospheric polar vortex to such an extent that it feeds back into the troposphere.
Ozone Content in the stratosphere
Ozone is important because it absorbs UV radiation in a process that warms the stratosphere. The Ozone is formed in the tropical stratosphere and transported to the polar stratosphere by a system known as the Brewer-Dobson-Circulation (the BDC). The strength of this circulation varies from year to year and can in turn be dictated by other influences. The ozone content in the polar stratosphere has been shown to be destroyed by CFC's permeating to the stratosphere from the troposphere. The overall ozone content in the polar stratosphere will help determine the underlying polar stratospheric temperature, with higher contents of ozone leading to a warmer polar stratosphere. The ozone levels can be monitored here:
One of the main influences on the stratospheric state is the QBO. This is a tropical stratospheric wind that descends in an easterly then westerly direction over a period of around 28 months. This can have a direct influence on the strength of the polar vortex in itself. The easterly (negative) phase is thought to contribute to a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, whilst a westerly (positive) phase is thought to increase the strength of the stratospheric vortex. However, in reality the exact timing and positioning of the QBO is not precise and the timing of the descending wave can be critical throughout the winter.
Diagram of the descending phases of the QBO: (with thanks from http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/index.html )
The QBO has been shown to influence the strength of the BDC, depending upon what phase it is in. The tropical upward momentum of ozone is stronger in the eQBO , whereas in the wQBO ozone transport is stronger into the lower mid latitudes, so less ozone will enter the upper tropical stratosphere to be transported to the polar stratosphere as can be seen in the following diagram.
However, the direction of the QBO when combined with the level of solar flux has also been shown to influence the BDC. When the QBO is in a west phase during solar maximum there are more warming events in the stratosphere, as there is also during an easterly phase QBO during solar minimum, so the strength of the BDC is also affected by this â€“ also known as the Holton Tan effect .
The QBO is measured at 30 hPa and has entered a westerly phase for this winter. As mentioned warming events are more likely during solar maximum when in this westerly phase â€“ with the solar flux below 110 units. Currently, we have just experienced a weak solar maximum and the solar flux heading into winter is still around this mark. This doesnâ€™t rule out warming events, but they will not be as likely â€“ perhaps if the solar flux surges then the chance will increase.
Latest solar flux F10.7cm:
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings:
One warming event that can occur in the stratospheric winter is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) or also known as a Major Midwinter Warming (MMW). This, as the name suggests is a rather dramatic event. Normally the polar night jet at the boundary of the polar vortex demarcates the boundary between warmer mid latitude and colder polar stratospheric air (and ozone levels) and this is very difficult to penetrate. SSWs can be caused by large-scale planetary tropospheric (Rossby) waves being deflected up into the stratosphere and towards the North Pole, often after a strong mountain torque event. These waves can introduce warmer temperatures into the polar stratosphere which can seriously disrupt the stratospheric vortex, leading to a slowing or even reversal of the vortex.
Any SSW will be triggered by the preceding tropospheric pattern - in fact the preceding troposheric pattern is important in disturbing the stratospheric vortex even without creating a SSW. Consider a tropospheric pattern where the flow is very zonal - rather like the positive AO phase in the diagram above. There has to be a mechanism to achieve a more negative AO or meridional pattern from this scenario and there is but it is not straightforward. It just doesn't occur without some type of driving mechanism. Yes, we need to look at the stratosphere - but if the stratosphere is already cold and a strong polar vortex established, then we need to look back into the troposphere. In some years the stratosphere will be more receptive to tropospheric interactions than others but we will still need a kickstart from the troposphere to feedback into the stratosphere. This kickstart will often come from the tropics in the form of pulses and patterns of convection. These can help determine the position and amplitude of the long wave undulations â€“ Rossby waves - that are formed at the barrier between the tropospheric polar and Ferrel cells. The exact positioning of the Rossby waves will be influenced by (amongst other things) the pulses of tropical convection â€“ such as the phase of the Madden Jullian Oscillation and the background ENSO state and that is why we monitor that so closely. These waves will interact with land masses and mountain ranges which can absorb or deflect the Rossby waves disrupting the wave pattern further - and this interaction and feedback between the tropical and polar systems is the basis of how the Global Wind Oscillation influences the global patterns.
If the deflection of the Rossby Wave then a wave breaking event occurs â€“ similar to a wave breaking on a beach â€“ except this time the break is of atmospheric air masses. Rossby wave breaks that are directed poleward can have a greater influence on the stratosphere. The Rossby wave breaks in the troposphere can be demonstrated by this diagram below â€“
This occurs a number of times during a typical winter and is more pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere due to the greater land mass area. Most wave deflections into the stratosphere do change the stratospheric vortex flow pattern - this will be greater if the stratosphere is more receptive to these wave breaks (and if they are substantial enough, then a SSW can occur). The change in the stratospheric flow pattern can then start to feedback into the troposphere - changing the zonal flow pattern into something with more undulations and perhaps ultimately to a very meridional flow pattern especially if a SSW occurs - but not always. If the wave breaking occurs in one place then we see a wave 1 type displacement of the stratospheric vortex, and if the wave breaking occurs in two places at once then we will see a wave 2 type disturbance of the vortex which could ultimately squeeze the vortex on half and split it â€“ and if these are strong enough then we would see a displacement SSW and split SSW respectively. The SSW is defined by a reversal of mean zonal mean winds from westerly to easterly at 60ÂºN and 10hPa. This definition is under review as there have been suggestions that other warmings of the stratosphere that cause severe disruption to the vortex could and should be included. http://birner.atmos.colostate.edu/papers/Butleretal_BAMS2014_submit.pdf
A demonstration of the late January 2009 SSW that was witnessed in the first strat thread has been brilliantly formulated by Andrej (recretos) and can be seen below:
The effects of a SSW can be transmitted into the troposphere as the downward propagation of the SSW occurs and this can have a number of consequences. There is a higher incidence of northern blocking after SSWâ€™s but we are all aware that not every SSW leads to northern blocking. Any northern blocking can lead to cold air from the tropospheric Arctic flooding south and colder conditions to latitudes further south can ensue. There is often thought to be a time lag between a SSW and northern blocking from any downward propagation of negative mean zonal winds from the stratosphere. This has been quoted as up to 6 weeks though it can be a lot quicker if the polar vortex is ripped in two following a split SSW. A recent paper has shown how the modelling of SSW and strong vortex conditions have been modelled over a 4 week period. This has shown that there is an increase in accuracy following weak or strong vortex events â€“ though the one area that the ECM overestimates blocking events following an SSW at week 4 is over Northwestern Eurasia.
One noticeable aspect of the recent previous winters is how the stratosphere has been susceptible to wave breaking from the troposphere through the lower reaches of the polar stratosphere - not over the top as seen in the SSWs. This has led to periods of sustained tropospheric high latitude blocking and repeated lower disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex. This has coincided with a warmer stratosphere where the mean zonal winds have been reduced and has led to some of the most potent winter spells witnessed in recent years.
We have also seen in recent years following Cohen's work the importance of the rate of Eurasian snow gain and coverage during October at latitudes below 60ÂºN. If this is above average then there is enhanced feedback from the troposphere into the stratosphere through the Rossby wave breaking pattern described above and diagrammatically below.
Six stage Cohen Process:
The effect of warming of the Arctic ocean leading to colder continents with anomalous wave activity penetrating the stratosphere has also been postulated
Last year we saw a large snow gain but unfortunately tropospheric atmospheric patterns prevented the full potential of these being unleashed on the stratosphere â€“ hence no SSW, but this winter could be different, but we will have to wait until the end of October.
One of the main influences in the global atmospheric state this winter will be the upcoming El Nino, and that is forecast to be the strongest since 1997. Studies have shown that SSWâ€™s are more likely during strong ENSO events ( http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/butler+polvani-GRL-2011.pdf)
but also that there is a particular pattern of upward propagating waves. During El Nino events wave formation is suppressed over the Indian Ocean Basin whilst it is enhanced over the Pacific Ocean
The ENSO pathway taken may be all critical this year as can be demonstrated by this paper http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/butler+polvani+deser-ERL-2014.pdf
This can lead us to suggest that a rather distinctive wave 1 pattern is likely this winter with the trigger zone likely to be over the north Pacific in the form of a quasi stationary enhanced wave 1 â€“ a traditional Aleutian low SSW trigger pattern is suggested by Garfinkel et al ( http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/garfinkel+etal-JGR-2012.pdf ) and this should be expected at some point this winter.
The reported incidence of SSW in EL Nino years is roughly around 60% - which is more than ENSO neutral years. A big question remains however, whether the ENSO wave 1 pattern will override the negative HT effect that the wQBO with the reducing solar ouput link brings. And even if it does, and we do achieve a displacement SSW, the next question is how will this affect the Atlantic sector of the Northern Hemisphere? My suspicion is that even if we do achieve a SSW this winter it will be in the second half, and also any subsequent blocking may not be quite right for the UK and, that if we were to achieve a â€“ve NAO, any block will be nearer Canada than Iceland, leaving the Atlantic door ajar. It is still too early this winter to be making any definitive forecasts â€“ the next 6 weeks are very important stratospherically, determining in what vein winter will start. Already we are seeing a forecast of weak wave activity disrupting the growing vortex and it will be interesting to see if this is repeated during November.
And it will be especially interesting to see what occurs in November and what is forecast for December before winter starts because typical strong El nino wQBO stratospheric composite analogues tell an opposite story. They suggest that the stratospheric vortex will be disrupted and weaker early in the winter before gaining in strength by February.
The mean zonal winds are already forecast to be below average so perhaps an early disrupted vortex is more likely this year!
As ever, I will supply links to various stratospheric websites were forecasts and data can be retrieved and hope for another fascinating year of monitoring the stratosphere.
ECM/Berlin Site: http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html
Instant weather maps: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php
NASA Merra site: http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html
Previous stratosphere monitoring threads:
Having viewed the latest longer-range Youtube video from Weatherweb (video embedded below), in which the CFS anomaly output was apparently swaying that company's thoughts regarding February's weather towards a flatter, zonal pattern), I posted the link (complete with an attempt at model-related discussion) in the relevant Model Output thread. More than one poster remarked that, in their opinion, this model was generally inaccurate and not to be trusted. I know that several senior posters use anomalies as a means of smoothing-out inter-run variations, so I was wondering if the CFS anomaly output is produced in a similar manner to others, and why it appears to be perceived as less useful?
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