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A new thread, for posting and discussing tweets about the forecast models currently. Please only post tweets in this thread, not the main model or banter threads.  The reason for this change is t

what battle?.....no disrespect but Chris Fawkes is a professional forecaster, enough said

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1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

And 🤣😂

No fighting on Twitter this evening.

 

That's because everyone knows their place now! 😂 

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I saved the old one earlier where you can see the change

D31D7CC1-E7FC-4040-BC07-D5FBD4FAE3DA.thumb.png.dea1c0fa5929f8dd8f4eeabb44571f8a.png

So I totally get the anomaly showing up, but instinctively I'm thinking red is highs and blue is lows... As in pressure, but these are winds? 

Edited by Griff
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It

16 minutes ago, Griff said:

So I totally get the anomaly showing up, but instinctively I'm thinking red is highs and blue is lows... As in pressure, but these are winds? 

Is the NAM northern annular mode which represents the polar cap heights throughout the atmosphere from top to bottom.

Positive numbers correspond to a positive NAM which is essentially the same as a Positive AO and vice versa the negative numbers show a negative AO.

The benefit of using a cross sectional map like that is it gives the full spectrum of the atmosphere as opposed to just say the AO ensembles posted. 

When you see positive numbers all the way down it means the troposphere is coupled hand in hand with the stratosphere & its likely to be mild, however if you positive at the top & negative at the bottom around 100HPA you dont have coupling & the troposhere is disconnected allowing for a possible inverse pattern > Negative AO.

You can also see the journey downwards ( propergation) of SSWs through the layers as they happen....

best

S

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

It

Is the NAM northern annular mode which represents the polar cap heights throughout the atmosphere from top to bottom.

Positive numbers correspond to a positive NAM which is essentially the same as a Positive AO and vice versa the negative numbers show a negative AO.

The benefit of using a cross sectional map like that is it gives the full spectrum of the atmosphere as opposed to just say the AO ensembles posted. 

When you see positive numbers all the way down it means the troposphere is coupled hand in hand with the stratosphere & its likely to be mild, however if you positive at the top & negative at the bottom around 100HPA you dont have coupling & the troposhere is disconnected allowing for a possible inverse pattern > Negative AO.

You can also see the journey downwards ( propergation) of SSWs through the layers as they happen....

best

S

👍 You made that very simple to understand, got it thanks. 

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2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

It

Is the NAM northern annular mode which represents the polar cap heights throughout the atmosphere from top to bottom.

Positive numbers correspond to a positive NAM which is essentially the same as a Positive AO and vice versa the negative numbers show a negative AO.

The benefit of using a cross sectional map like that is it gives the full spectrum of the atmosphere as opposed to just say the AO ensembles posted. 

When you see positive numbers all the way down it means the troposphere is coupled hand in hand with the stratosphere & its likely to be mild, however if you positive at the top & negative at the bottom around 100HPA you dont have coupling & the troposhere is disconnected allowing for a possible inverse pattern > Negative AO.

You can also see the journey downwards ( propergation) of SSWs through the layers as they happen....

best

S

Really helpful Steve.. always nice to learn something new, over the years I’ve not understood that chart at all when posted, I do now  and it’s powerful model... 

 

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3 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

I'm not sure what this means in practical terms for the UK. I deduce that an "arctic low" is not a good thing?

No, but at least it's a long way off.

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