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I'd prefer to be sharing with a preference towards a cold winter, however sometimes the curious or unusual gets my attention too... 🤔 

I would temper any optimism, as the PV looks to go nuts in the NH and continue past its sell by date in the SH... 

 

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2 hours ago, Griff said:

I'd prefer to be sharing with a preference towards a cold winter, however sometimes the curious or unusual gets my attention too... 🤔 

I would temper any optimism, as the PV looks to go nuts in the NH and continue past its sell by date in the SH... 

 

A crumb to cogitate...

 

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12 hours ago, Griff said:

Been an interesting week 

 

Butterfly effect? (I've been keeping an eye on the potential correlation of hurricane ACE as a metric and winter in the northern hemisphere...) 

 

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21 minutes ago, Griff said:

Butterfly effect? (I've been keeping an eye on the potential correlation of hurricane ACE as a metric and winter in the northern hemisphere...) 

 

Is this good or bad for UK cold prospects? 

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16 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Is this good or bad for UK cold prospects? 

So Marco P at the Met suggested that above average to hyperactive Caribbean / Atlantic hurricane season can be disruptive to zonality and might down the line favour PV disruption. My understanding of planetary waves is limited to say the least. Equally it could be disruptive to modelled cold shots, where reference on this forum seems to often cite hurricane activity as spoilers... So again a toss of a coin, but overall increases the likelyhood of more extreme patterns, my attention is on -NAO etc. 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

^Let's hope that the gfs is right then but i would suspect that the ECM will be nearer the mark,the patience goes on.

🤷‍♂️ It's 2020 etc... 

Equally it wouldn't be out of form for us all to be hugely disappointed given a fleeting glimmer of something to look forward to. 

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11 hours ago, Griff said:

 

I wish I knew what that meant.... "ensemble bifurcation", "EOF predictions", "real world impacts varied for NW Europe"... what kind of 'real world impacts'?!?!? Presumably by varied he means a mixture of different weather types - nothing specific to write home about then?

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