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Paul

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
On 31/03/2019 at 12:30, Summer Sun said:

 

That second half projection fits an El Nino base state pretty well, except for a northward shift of the main positive height anomaly. The stubbornness of low heights S of the UK instead of them becoming focused across the Azores is unusual.

I think it's a case of the anomalous HLB regime in response to some optimally-aligned wave breaking (as per the tweet above) contradicting the usual response during the first half, before it gives way and El Nino can make itself known.

Or at least, that's how it should theoretically go. Signs of this from the GFS 12z today.

 

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  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
6 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

 

But 1999 and 2006 were not during solar min, so....

It seems like almost anything can be linked to solar min with enough effort. :whistling:

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