Model tweets

[fromey]

Not good!!

[Allseasons-Si]

 

[snowbunting]

On 15/12/2017 at 12:02, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Following is tweet from Michael Ventrice.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice

 

 

 

 

Talk about agreement between the end of the ECMWF EPS and GEFS for Day 15; The explosion of heights over Alaska in through the North Pole is very encouraging signature for a Wintry start to 2018.

 

I am confused. This was a tweet from him last Friday.  About height gains etc etc. Now 7days on he is suggesting a return of the Polar Vortex... 

I thought that we need a strong PV to get the best effect from a SSW... just like Jan 2013?

[joggs]

15 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

I am confused. This was a tweet from him last Friday.  About height gains etc etc. Now 7days on he is suggesting a return of the Polar Vortex... 

I thought that we need a strong PV to get the best effect from a SSW... just like Jan 2013?

Put it simply.They just watch it play out and change as much as the forecast.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, snowbunting said:

I am confused. This was a tweet from him last Friday.  About height gains etc etc. Now 7days on he is suggesting a return of the Polar Vortex... 

I thought that we need a strong PV to get the best effect from a SSW... just like Jan 2013?

He is talking about the USA, not europe

the big news over the next fortnight will be the cold in the states 

the strat vortex returning over the pole is nothing to do with the Alaskan ridge - they are not mutually exclusive 

[Blessed Weather]

Hopefully long rangers GloSea & ECM are onto something for blocking mid-Jan. Then it just needs to be in the right place!

https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280 https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280 https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280

 

[phil nw.]

7 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Hopefully long rangers GloSea & ECM are onto something for blocking mid-Jan. Then it just needs to be in the right place!

https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280 https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280 https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280

 

I also wonder whether their terminology for blocked includes mid-latitude as well as polar blocking so difficult to determine the type of pattern their modeling is seeing.

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

Hopefully long rangers GloSea & ECM are onto something for blocking mid-Jan. Then it just needs to be in the right place!

https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280 https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280 https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/943787865791713280

 

Alleluia! Winter's not over then! 

[bluearmy]

Pretty sure that blocked is more likely to be MLB than HLB - otherwise it would have a more wintry connotation in the tweet 

[Don]

13 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Pretty sure that blocked is more likely to be MLB than HLB - otherwise it would have a more wintry connotation in the tweet 

That was my fear, too!

[Summer Sun]

 

[blizzard81]

48 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Of course! A mild outlier

[blizzard81]

22 hours ago, phil nw. said:

I also wonder whether their terminology for blocked includes mid-latitude as well as polar blocking so difficult to determine the type of pattern their modeling is seeing.

I often think this too. To just say blocking is way too vague and to be quite honest is a bit of a cop out. It amounts to "no meat on any bones" terminology. Most laymen wouldn't even know what they meant by "blocking" anyway. 

[bluearmy]

Why would a reputable weather company tweet the details of an operational gfs run post day 8 and highlight it as being against general model guidance ??

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Why would a reputable weather company tweet the details of an operational gfs run post day 8 and highlight it as being against general model guidance ??

Click bait

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, jvenge said:

Click bait

should we be self regulating the stuff that ends up in here then ?  after all, anyone can tweet any old nonsense

[jvenge]

Just now, bluearmy said:

should we be self regulating the stuff that ends up in here then ?  after all, anyone can tweet any old nonsense

Not sure - I have around 40 people on ignore. I like the tweets thread and don't take the one quoted seriously. Need to allow people to make their own mistakes at some point, I guess :-)

[Summer Sun]

 

[fromey]

[Summer Sun]

 

[Paul_1978]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Wow, that would be some fall!

[Blessed Weather]

Ian Fergusson tweet with insight into Euro4 and ECMWF snowfall forecasts:

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Scandinavian High.]

[Summer Sun]