Model tweets

[cowdog]

20 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Interesting

https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/938408702192873473

That video is almost Express level ramping! Very surprising for the BBC.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Mark wheeler]

44 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

He also goes on to mention the southeast for those interested.

https://mobile.twitter.com/_chrisfawkes/status/938479491130757122

[Summer Sun]

 

Edited December 6, 2017 by Summer Sun

[ScottishSnowStorm]

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/938494181617618944

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

Notice how temps recover the closer we get to Christmas

 

[Paul_1978]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Notice how temps recover the closer we get to Christmas

 

....might recover 

[Summer Sun]

On 12/7/2017 at 10:40, Paul_1978 said:

....might recover 

Respite closer to Christmas agreed by the met office as well albeit short-lived the GFS graph looks to have support

 

Edited December 8, 2017 by Summer Sun

[warrenb]

Not good news for the models

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/939112663128461312

[Summer Sun]

 

[Sparkiee storm]

Chris fawkes twitter, some great updates on there.

https://twitter.com/_chrisfawkes?lang=en

[Summer Sun]

 

[fromey]

[Paul_1978]

https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/940167134881214466

https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/940149880693166080

Highlights from the above Tweets:

Quote

Milder; at times windy, w/c 18th. Cold may rtn Jan. Being watched.

Quote

We will see sense of direction in further 30d modelling issued tonight. Moreover, we keeping tabs on how things way aloft behave late Dec-Jan. Models suggest a sudden warming in stratosphere is *possible* - which tends to favour subsequent blocking

 

Edited December 11, 2017 by Paul_1978

[Spah1]

Can someone explain pls. 

[Spah1]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Following is tweet from Michael Ventrice.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice

 

 

 

 

Talk about agreement between the end of the ECMWF EPS and GEFS for Day 15; The explosion of heights over Alaska in through the North Pole is very encouraging signature for a Wintry start to 2018.

 

Edited December 15, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

 

[Blessed Weather]

Dramatic looking tweet showing the 850hPa temp anomaly on 25th Dec over Canada/US. Today's ECM Op 12z 500hPa anomaly chart for Boxing Day looks in full agreement, with a steep temp gradient set to fire up a strong jet stream exiting the Eastern seaboard.

ECM Op 12z 500hPa anomaly for 26th Dec:

GEFS Jet stream 26th Dec:

Edit: Just a quick aside - does anyone else think this sort of tweet should be allowed in the Model thread when supported by charts? It seems relevant to model output discussion and impact on the UK.

Edited December 18, 2017 by Blessed Weather

[Catacol]

 

3 other years in the record with eQBO, weak Nina and a major Strat Vortex January event: 1963, 1985 and 2006.

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2017 by Catacol

[Interitus]

25 minutes ago, Catacol said:

3 other years in the record with eQBO, weak Nina and a major Strat Vortex January event: 1963, 1985 and 2006.

Significance of SSW on UK cold possible for Jan 1985 and 2006 however questionable for 1963 - it was at the end of the month (28-30th depending on reanalysis) after the coldest spell of the winter. Maybe it prolonged the cold, maybe it lessened it, not looked in detail.

Anyway from the same thread -

Good to see we're all over this in the strat thread.

[Paul_1978]

13 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Dramatic looking tweet showing the 850hPa temp anomaly on 25th Dec over Canada/US. Today's ECM Op 12z 500hPa anomaly chart for Boxing Day looks in full agreement, with a steep temp gradient set to fire up a strong jet stream exiting the Eastern seaboard.

ECM Op 12z 500hPa anomaly for 26th Dec:

GEFS Jet stream 26th Dec:

Edit: Just a quick aside - does anyone else think this sort of tweet should be allowed in the Model thread when supported by charts? It seems relevant to model output discussion and impact on the UK.

Strong jet stream looks ominous, but does it necessarily mean its going to plough straight through the UK or "over the top"? 

[Blessed Weather]

1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

Strong jet stream looks ominous, but does it necessarily mean its going to plough straight through the UK or "over the top"? 

Fair point Paul - certainly exact track not set in stone. But generally speaking, a strong jet exiting the eastern seaboard is not good news for deep cold prospects here in the UK. IMO better to have a weak jet meandering about with 'stuck' patterns and blocking..... as long as we get stuck in the cold sector!