Model tweets

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Spah1]

[Summer Sun]

 

[Spah1]

 

[Spah1]

 

[knocker]

 

Edited December 7, 2018 by knocker

[Interitus]

 

Oh dear.

[Summer Sun]

 

[ArHu3]

33 minutes ago, togwotee pass said:

The PV is somewhat phallic in appearance.  It's like our chances have been literally f****d.

The majority (but not all) displacements tend to lead to warmer western Europe and and cold Easter US whereas most (but not all) splits do the opposite 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Singularity]

You can really see CFSv2's classic poleward bias with trough positioning when comparing those two week 6 mean anomaly charts.

Honestly, I've seen runs with exceptionally strong Arctic blocking in response to a major SSW that have deep lows barrelling straight through the UK on a west-east path. Historical precedent tells us a more likely path is through Iberia and Central Europe, and mostly at lower intensity for that matter.

That EPS mean on the other hand is very much what historical precedent tells us to expect after a major SSW. Just waiting now for someone to reveal that it's not actually predicting one .

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

Edited December 9, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Spah1]

 

[matt111]

 

[knocker]

 

Edited December 12, 2018 by knocker

[steveinsussex]

Chris Fawkes dismissive of anything of note until feb at the earliest 

[knocker]

 

Edited December 13, 2018 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

 

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[Summer Sun]