Model tweets

[Mr Frost]

23 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Quess what ? February starting out as January ended. More rain and wind in Stockholm this morning. Temp again well above freezing and 12c this morning in parts of the south. Defo in the worse scenario of mild winters , like dreaded 89/90 in Scandi -land.

Lovely from Monday. 

 

 

Edited February 1, 2020 by Mr Frost

[carinthian]

1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

Lovely from Monday. 

 

 

Yes, a two day event. Better than UK though ! No ice flows in the Baltic this winter.

[carinthian]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

To be fair, the long range models consistently predicted a 88/89 type pattern in the run up to winter.

Maybe, but Stockholm is a dark depressing place at this time of year, just cloud laden and damp. Lights on all day. Will be nice to see the sun for a few days next week.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Don]

12 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Surely this February would be the warmest on record if that was to come off?

Edited February 5, 2020 by Don

[Interitus]

Dennis the menace

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Don]

38 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

It just goes on and on!  Surely this period of above average temperatures will have to break at some point!?

[nick sussex]

24 minutes ago, Don said:

It just goes on and on!  Surely this period of above average temperatures will have to break at some point!?

That covers March , April and May combined so its not really a great help unless the months are broken down .

It could include one cold month and then two warmer ones .

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That covers March , April and May combined so its not really a great help unless the months are broken down .

It could include one cold month and then two warmer ones .

True but with that cold patch to the South of Greenland, my guess is a continuation - 3 months of variation on a theme, ie- winds from a Western quadrant, of course broken down into weeks you couldn't rule out a few days of high lattitude blocking i suppose.

[Don]

33 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That covers March , April and May combined so its not really a great help unless the months are broken down .

It could include one cold month and then two warmer ones .

Of course and if there is to be a cold month, hopefully that will be March!  However, it would be nice to have a colder than average season/year overall, rather than the odd colder month in an otherwise warm period.

Edited February 15, 2020 by Don

[Summer Sun]

 

[feb1991blizzard]

26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Correct about the strength and dominance of the vortex and coupling this winter but not sure a final warming in March is 'later than usual'

[Griff]

Is the CFS ever wrong?  

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Mike Poole]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

We often see twitterings from this guy, and he definitely is MO because I've seen him interviewed on BBC news, but why do no other MO forecasters get to express their opinions on social media?  And he uses Meteoceil charts, don't the MO have their own?, just like some of us on the MOD - it could easily be any one of the MOD regulars saying this...maybe that's the point.

Edited February 20, 2020 by Mike Poole

[knocker]

 

[knocker]

Quite an interesting discussion yesterday

 

[Summer Sun]

A great winter for GloSea5 correctly predicting it back in November

 

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A great winter for GloSea5 correctly predicting it back in November

 

It is of course far easier for a model to predict a predominately Westerly driven season when our weather comes predominately from the West. The proof of Glosea5's prowess will be in predicting a colder Winter and whether that actually occurs.

[Interitus]

16 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It is of course far easier for a model to predict a predominately Westerly driven season when our weather comes predominately from the West. The proof of Glosea5's prowess will be in predicting a colder Winter and whether that actually occurs.

It hasn't just predicted climatology though, it's predicted an anomalous westerly season.

[joggs]

Anyone heard or seen any tweets from models for the summer?.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Interitus said:

It hasn't just predicted climatology though, it's predicted an anomalous westerly season.

Indeed...GLOSEA's forecast would have been equally successful had it correctly forecast negative anomalies, on such a scale: whether this winter had turned-out warm or mild, it would still be well outwith the bounds of 'normality'? 

So, a scintillating success, IMO.