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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
12 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

Thats what I used to think when we got snow in feb and even march. However Some of the fiercest blizzards and deepest snow have fallen in these months. March 2006 being most notable. 

I agree, but it soon melts later in February and during March, well certainly here.

Edited by CK1981
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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
7 minutes ago, Richard Taylor said:

I think we had about a foot of snow in Aberdeen Mar 2006,including thundersnow. OK not N. America proportions but still....! Anyway let's see what this week brings.

Yes, snow can really accumulate, but never lasts in the south. I guess the sun is just too strong down here at the end of February.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
29 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

So Liam replies

The 06Z and 18Z runs of the GFS are never worth taking much notice of because they include fewer observations in the initialisation than the main 00Z and 12Z runs. As a result, the reliability of the output isn’t particularly good. And, it’s the GFS...

Is that correct ?  Seems a sweeping statement to just disregard these runs

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
4 minutes ago, cobbett said:

So Liam replies

The 06Z and 18Z runs of the GFS are never worth taking much notice of because they include fewer observations in the initialisation than the main 00Z and 12Z runs. As a result, the reliability of the output isn’t particularly good. And, it’s the GFS...

Is that correct ?  Seems a sweeping statement to just disregard these runs

It is true. Quite how those fewer observations play out with 6 hour newer data is open to question, though. You can't exactly say the 06z gave a completely different solution to the 0z. Also, the ECM and UKMO runs were showing something similar.

I also really don't think it is worth speculating on precipitation yet. Even a tiny change that you need a magnifying glass to see can have sweeping changes for snow potential.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 hours ago, cobbett said:

So Liam replies

The 06Z and 18Z runs of the GFS are never worth taking much notice of because they include fewer observations in the initialisation than the main 00Z and 12Z runs. As a result, the reliability of the output isn’t particularly good. And, it’s the GFS...

Is that correct ?  Seems a sweeping statement to just disregard these runs

It's not borne out by the verification statistics at all, here at Day 5:

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.2a3e348fc129eb8a105d6a9b8450dab1.png

Very little in it.  Of course, he is correct that 'it's the GFS'!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
30 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It's not borne out by the verification statistics at all, here at Day 5:

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.2a3e348fc129eb8a105d6a9b8450dab1.png

Very little in it.  Of course, he is correct that 'it's the GFS'!

Is there any of them charts for 10mb by any chance? - not anticipating so!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is there any of them charts for 10mb by any chance? - not anticipating so!

No!  250mb the highest.

cor_day5_HGT_P250_G2NHX.thumb.png.7235f5b63fd1a81e5de4b7068b66c77a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is there any of them charts for 10mb by any chance? - not anticipating so!

Not that I can find: 250hpa the highest:

cor_day5_HGT_P250_G2NHX.png

And as I posted on the other thread, a professional meteorologist working at NCEP says there's no significant difference:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/32149-gfs-12z-and-0z-runs-compared-to-6z-and-18z-runs/

The observation data is coming in 24 hours a day from all over the world, so I don't know where the idea that there is less data for those runs comes from either?

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
21 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Not that I can find: 250hpa the highest:

cor_day5_HGT_P250_G2NHX.png

And as I posted on the other thread, a professional meteorologist working at NCEP says there's no significant difference:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/32149-gfs-12z-and-0z-runs-compared-to-6z-and-18z-runs/

The observation data is coming in 24 hours a day from all over the world, so I don't know where the idea that there is less data for those runs comes from either?

So that is settled I for one have no idea where Liam D has got his information from probably himself. I don’t think this has been the first time he has said some odd things regarding models.

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

So that is settled I for one have no idea where Liam D has got his information from probably himself. I don’t think this has been the first time he has said some odd things regarding models.

Well, it is partly true, as the link does concede there are some thousands of less aircraft observations. And this has been well known for years. What it shows, though, is that this doesn't really make much different in the grand scheme of things. And, if it does make a difference, they can't really separate it out from general inter run noise.

I personally don't view the 6z and 18x output often, but that's more people I prefer to compare like for like at 0z and 12z. Just to see the time stamp matchups.

So, what Liam said appears to be nonsense, but is it more nonsense than the original tweet he was replying to? That's a tricky one.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
On 1/28/2018 at 16:10, CK1981 said:

Yes, snow can really accumulate, but never lasts in the south. I guess the sun is just too strong down here at the end of February.

Not true. Many places on the same latitude as the South of England, and therefore the same solar strength at the end of Feb remain snow and ice bound with no melting. Other factors are at play when it comes to the UK, it isn't simply a case of the sun being too strong.

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Not true. Many places on the same latitude as the South of England, and therefore the same solar strength at the end of Feb remain snow and ice bound with no melting. Other factors are at play when it comes to the UK, it isn't simply a case of the sun being too strong.

Yes, but those places e.g. Canada probably have frigid cold air in place and frozen solid ground. Whenever I’ve seen snow on the ground in late February or March it has soon melted due to temperatures being a little too high and the strength of the sun. This is fact based on my experience.

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